Texas A&M vs. Alabama point spread: Picking Aggies vs. Crimson Tide

Alabama and Texas A&M have faced off in some exciting battles the past two seasons, and the 2023 version figures to be equally entertaining. The Crimson Tide are currently just a 1.5-point road favorite according to FanDuel, indicating that Vegas expects this game to come down to the end.

That was the case in both 2021 and 2022, as both those games were decided by less than a touchdown. FOX Sports betting analyst and former Oregon and NFL offensive lineman Geoff Schwartz joined On3‘s Andy Staples on Wednesday to make his pick in the matchup between the Aggies and Crimson Tide.

He ultimately landed on A&M, saying he thinks the game will be decided up front at the offensive and defensive line.

“Alabama, the offensive and defensive line is not what it used to be,” Schwartz explained. “That’s one place where A&M is excelling right now, especially on the defensive line. We’ve seen Alabama struggle this season when playing a defensive line — really Texas — that was really able to get their quarterbacks off their spot, get the offensive line to make some mistakes in the run game.

“You have an A&M defensive line that can do that in this game. They’re able to be the difference makers. I think that really tips the scales for me for A&M to cover and win this game. Betting against Nick Saban is typically bad money, but I think A&M has the important pieces in place to beat a team like Alabama.”

The Aggies ranks second in the SEC with 20 sacks so far this season. They’re also third in the conference (and 21st nationally) with 96.2 rushing yards allowed per game. That’s in large part thanks to a scary defensive line that features players such as Shemar Turner and Walter Nolen.

The Alabama offensive line is currently giving up 4.0 sacks per game, which ranks 123rd in the FBS. That combination certainly doesn’t set up well for the Crimson Tide heading into this game, and we saw how it played out earlier this season in a 34-24 loss against Texas, where Jalen Milroe was sacked five times.

However, Staples argued that the Crimson Tide can still do enough to win the game if they also get pressure on Aggies QB Max Johnson. With this game having massive implications in the SEC West (the winner will move into first place in the division), that’s also something to keep an eye on.

“I would not be shocked if whoever wins this game wins the SEC West and I don’t have a strong feeling about who’s gonna win this game,” Staples said. “I agree with everything you said about A&M’s defensive line against Alabama’s offensive line potentially causing Milroe to make some mistakes, which is what he did in the Texas game. There were two critical mistakes that, if he doesn’t make those, that game is pretty much a deadlock.

“So the part I want to see is, can Alabama disrupt Max Johnson? Can they cause him to make some mistakes? Because that’ll make a difference. A&M’s defense, the big questions out of the Miami game were can they get pressure and can they tackle? It may be that Miami’s offensive line was just good and that’s why they couldn’t get pressure. Because they certainly seemed to be able to get pressure against Auburn and they certainly seemed to be able to do it against Arkansas.”

Ultimately, Staples went the opposite direction of Schwartz, saying he simply can’t go against Nick Saban. However, he recognized the opportunity that lies ahead for the Aggies, especially coming off of a disappointing 5-7 finish last year.

“I am still gonna take Alabama,” he said. “I’m going down with the ship if it’s going down. Either Alabama’s gonna win this game, go win the West, potentially win the SEC and make the Playoff or they’re gonna lose it and somebody else takes the mantle. Maybe that’s A&M because A&M at that point would be the favorite in the SEC West.

“Watching LSU doesn’t give you a ton of confidence. They’ve already beaten Auburn and Arkansas. They’re gonna beat Mississippi State. They gotta go to Tennessee, that’s gonna be tough. But if they can win this one and have this in their back pocket, they’ve got a good shot of winning the West. Still, I’m not ready to see Nick Saban hand it over quite yet.”

The last time this game was played in College Station, Alabama lost 41-38 as Texas A&M kicked a last second field goal to pull off the upset. This year’s game could again come down to the wire, but Schwartz still likes the Aggies to send a statement.

“A&M is different because for so many years we’ve been hearing that they’re back,” he said. “When you’re not, of course you get hammered for it. But I think A&M, I hate picking against ‘Bama, but I think A&M takes this one and then we get a ‘are they back?’ sort of discussion.”

Kickoff between Alabama and Texas A&M is set for 2:30 p.m. CT on Saturday.