Heather Dinich: Texas' Big 12 Championship victory knocks Ohio State out of CFP race

With Selection Sunday looming, the question entering Saturday’s championship games were how the final College Football Playoff rankings would shake out. One team — Washington — likely secured its spot in the four-team field with a Pac-12 Championship victory Friday night as an undefeated conference champion.

Texas, however, presents an interesting case. The Longhorns won the Big 12 Championship on Saturday with a resounding 49-21 victory over Oklahoma State to improve to 12-1. But that one loss is significant in the big picture of the CFP, even despite a conference championship.

According to ESPN’s Heather Dinich, though, the Longhorns should be in the field. Because of that, it means Ohio State will be on the outside looking in.

“I think the biggest lesson learned for who’s out is Ohio State,” Dinich said after the Big 12 Championship. “This is not last season. There are far more contenders. Last year, Ohio State’s wins against Penn State and Notre Dame were enough. They needed one upset, they got it when USC lost to Utah in the Pac-12 championship game.

“This year, they needed multiple upsets, starting with Texas losing. That did not happen. I think the door is closed on the Buckeyes because the bar is so much higher in that selection committee meeting room for a team that doesn’t win its conference. Right now, you’ve got Texas — we’re still talking about Alabama, Georgia, Michigan, Washington, Florida State. Buckeyes are out.”

Breaking down the ‘ideal scenario’ for Texas to make the College Football Playoff

The top four this week were as follows — No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Michigan, No. 3 Washington and No. 4 Florida State. All four enter Championship Week undefeated, and remember, the Huskies already won their conference title.

Georgia and Alabama will be the biggest game to watch in Atlanta in the SEC Championship. A Crimson Tide victory would present a very interesting decision for the committee and surely generate some discussion ahead of Sunday’s reveal.

But that might not help Texas’ case, according to Dinich. The Longhorns need to cheer for Louisville in the ACC Championship against Florida State, which is already without starting quarterback Jordan Travis and could be without Tate Rodemaker. If FSU loses, Dinich said, that spot is Texas’ for the taking.

Things get complicated if Georgia loses, though.

“I think the most ideal scenario for the Longhorns is to have Georgia beat Alabama and to have Florida State lose,” Dinich said. “Now, you can certainly have Texas get in with Alabama as an SEC champ, and Texas can get in with Georgia. But you’ve got to eliminate Florida State. And the reason I say it’s more ideal if Georgia wins is because then, you’re also not competing against a one-loss Georgia that doesn’t win the SEC.

“We’ve said this before. No top team in the committee’s ranking has ever fallen out of the top four on Selection Day. If that were to happen to Georgia, it would be unprecedented. That way, Texas avoids that debate with the committee’s top team if Alabama does win.”

Texas’ Week 2 victory over Alabama is a huge piece of the Longhorns’ resume, and that’s the reason they came in ahead of the Crimson Tide in each rankings reveal so far. That will again be a deciding factor when the committee finalizes its rankings.

“I’m telling you guys, I know this for a fact, that head-to-head win continues to loom large,” Dinich said. “Selection committee chair Boo Corrigan said earlier this week that it doesn’t matter when it happened, doesn’t matter that it happened in Week 2. It’s as relevant today as it was then. And the strength of schedule for Texas is very strong in the committee’s statistics, as well.

“So we’ll see what happens, but there’s a lot of games left to be played, guys. This could be very easy or very difficult with more than one somebody pretty angry.”