The case for the College Football Playoff evaluating strength of schedule vs. win total

The College Football Playoff format changes this coming season, which means a whole new set of decisions and criteria for fans to argue about all year long.

One fan is already curious about how the selection committee will diagnose teams and records in the new playoff era, and wrote into Andy Staples’ On3 YouTube show to ask if the committee will more strongly consider a team’s overall record, or the schedule they overcame to get there.

“Ideally, the answer is both,” said Staples after reading out the question on air. However, there’s obviously a balance to consider with both sides of the coin.

“But the question is which weighs more, strength of schedule or total number of wins? I think you could argue this is what happened to Florida State last year, but I don’t know that you look at FSU vs. Alabama, the strength of schedule is not that different. You had the QB situation as well.”

Last season, the committee thumbed its nose at a 13-0 record for a one-loss team, which could be a sign that they aren’t afraid to throw records out the window when looking at who teams have won and lost against.

“I would argue the committee has been pretty critical on that front, that they’ve had undefeated teams they did not feel were worthy. They’ve had teams with one loss they didn’t feel were as good as teams with two losses,” said Staples. And with conference changes, there could be some elite teams with several losses.

“As you get into this particular set of circumstances, because the SEC and Big Ten have added more good teams, I do think strength of schedule should matter in terms of seeding and in terms of who makes it,” Staples added.

Be prepared, he says, for the SEC and Big Ten to have some teams ranked ahead of teams from other leagues who have better records.

“I think the general public needs to adjust the thinking, because there are going to be three-loss SEC teams that are every bit as good as one-loss ACC teams. But is that going to make anybody happy? No. Because if you point that out, it just makes people mad.”

At the end of the day, Andy Staples believes that the goal is selecting the best teams into the field, just like it was for the four-team playoff.

“Yes, the strength of schedule piece matters. Who has the best chance of winning games in this tournament? That should be the guiding principle. If it’s one game in the loss column difference, then yes, you should take a very critical look at the schedules, because the team that has one more loss might be much more equipped to win games in the tournament.”