Friday Pick-Six: Week 1 best bets for Colorado-TCU, Tennessee-Virginia, South Carolina-UNC, Upset De Jour

Welcome to The Friday Pick-Six, a weekly column here during the 2023 season where I’ll pick five games against the spread each week, plus my Upset De Jour. 

We’ll track the bets, and y’all can decide to fade or tail (for entertainment purposes only!) the picks. Week 0 was fun, but now we get a full slate of games in Week 1. The tricky part is we don’t truly know a lot about many of these teams, and these lines are tough because they’ve been out for months. 

With just a single ranked-on-ranked affair this weekend (LSU-Florida), the spreads are all over the map this week. I really like the over in that game (55.5), but we’re sticking to spreads only in this column.  Today’s Pick-Six includes Deion Sanders’ debut at Colorado, Joe Milton’s bazooka cannon vs. Virginia and the Battle of the Carolinas. 

Let’s dive in:

(All point spreads come from Vegas Insider).

Colorado at No. 17 TCU (-20.5)

The public may be all-in on Deion Sanders and Colorado, but I’m betting his mad scientist experiment is going to take some time to work. Maybe Shedeur Sanders is awesome. Maybe the Buffs’ offensive and defensive lines aren’t too undersized. But maybe not? TCU lost a ton off its title runner-up team, yet Sonny Dykes is still the head coach, the offense still projects to be explosive and the Horned Frogs’ defense still has studs at linebacker (Johnny Hodges), corner (Josh Newton) and safety (Bud Clark). TCU ruins Coach Prime’s FBS debut with a blowout win.

PICK: TCU -20.5

Middle Tennessee State at No. 4 Alabama (-39.5)

Let me make sure I have this right: Alabama has uncertainty at quarterback where Jalen Milroe will be one of three to possibly play Saturday. The Tide want to prove their OL and ground game will be the backbone of the offense in 2023. Nick Saban doesn’t historically run it up on lesser foes. And Alabama has a Top 10 showdown looming with Texas next weekend.  And the Tide is supposed to cover nearly six touchdowns? It’ll be ugly early, and I’ll be sweating this pick late, but Rick Stockstill coaches the Blue Raiders to a backdoor cover.

PICK: MTSU +39.5

No. 11 Tennessee (-27.5) vs. Virginia (in Nashville)

Against this version of the Vols, you do not want to A) Lack team speed and B) Can’t score. Well, the Hoos check both boxes. Tony Elliott had a tough Year 1, capped by the tragic shooting that killed three Cavaliers players. Virginia returns some defensive experience, but this a bad matchup going up against Josh Heupel’s go-go offense. I expect Joe Milton to have a monster game and immediately become the 2023 hype-train NFL prospect (see: Anthony Richardson after Week 1 in 2022). Tennessee’s defense projects to be better this fall and will suffocate a UVA attack that ranked last in the ACC in scoring. Vols cover the big number. 

PICK: Tennessee -27.5

Boise State at No. 10 Washington (-14)

Michael Penix Jr.’s Heisman campaign starts Saturday, as the Huskies’ senior quarterback will look to get off to another fast start in Week 1 (345 yards and four touchdowns in the opener in 2022). Kalen Deboer is awesome in openers, and while the Broncos could emerge as the best G5 team by the end of the year, they’re going to have a tough time covering Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk. Much-less protecting quarterback Taylen Green, who could face all sorts of pressure from Bralen Trice & Co.

PICK: Washington -14

No. 21 North Carolina vs. South Carolina (+2.5)

I’m on record shorting North Carolina this season. I don’t buy the Tar Heels will have some sort of defensive renaissance, and I think Drake Maye will sorely miss Phil Longo and Josh Downs (especially with the NCAA screwing Dez Walker). South Carolina isn’t without warts, but Spencer Rattler seems more comfortable and confident in Year 2 (especially working with Dowell Loggins) and star wideout Juice Wells and transfer tight end Trey Knox are both set to play after battling nagging injuries during fall camp. 

PICK: South Carolina +2.5

Upset De Jour

Timmy Chang and the Rainbow Warriors put a scare into Vanderbilt as a 17.5-point underdog in Week 0, losing a one-score game after a late interception by Brayden Schager. Still, Hawaii’s quarterback is legit (352 yards, 10.0 per attempt and three touchdowns vs. the Commodores) and he’ll be going up against a Stanford team in total transition in its first game under new head coach Troy Taylor. Back on the Island, Schager leads Hawaii to the upset in a “Do It for Maui.”

PICK: Hawaii (+3.5) beats Stanford