The No. 1 prospect for every recruiting cycle in the last decade

The last decade has already produced some of the top talent that the college and professional level has seen in some time, but there can only be one prospect who closes a recruiting cycle atop the rankings.

Looking at the previous 10 recruiting cycles, quarterbacks and defensive linemen have dominated the top spot. Signal-callers have landed at No. 1 overall four times, while D-linemen and EDGE prospects also have four recent top recruits.

Below is a look at who finished as the No. 1 overall recruit in each of the last 10 cycles — according to the On3 Industry Ranking — along with a breakdown as to why each prospect closed atop their respective cycle from On3 Director of Scouting and Rankings Charles Power.

The On3 Industry Ranking is a proprietary algorithm that compiles ratings and rankings from all four primary recruiting media services. The On3 Industry Ranking is the industry’s most advanced, complete and unbiased measurement. For football, the algorithm is weighted as follows: On3 (35%), 247Sports (35%), Rivals.com (20%) and ESPN (10%). 

2025: QB Bryce Underwood

School: Belleville (Mich.)
Rating: 99.87
Signed With: Michigan

Scout’s Take: “From my time doing this, Bryce Underwood is the most physically-gifted high school quarterback prospect. At 6-foot-4 and 215 pounds, Underwood has a huge arm, is a plus athlete, he has the physical skillset to not only become a top quarterback in college football, but to also become a top-tier QB in the NFL, with continued development. Of course he had a historic NIL package to flip from LSU to Michigan, he has the potential to be a program-altering recruit at Michigan under Sherrone Moore. I think he’ll have a large say in the trajectory of the Wolverines over the next five to 10 years, certainly in Moore’s tenure as head coach. Underwood, based off everything we’ve seen, has an undeniable level of physical talent and I’m looking forward to seeing how he plays as a true freshman and early in his career in Ann Arbor.”

2024: WR Jeremiah Smith

School: Hollywood (Fla.) Chaminade-Madonna
Rating: 99.61
Signed With: Ohio State

Scout’s Take: “Jeremiah Smith is the best high school receiver prospect at least in the last 15 years, if not since Randy Moss. It’s not every day you see a receiver be the No. 1 prospect in the industry, but it was certainly deserved. Just incredibly advanced physically, Smith is 6-foot-3, 220 pounds with elite play-speed, production, hyper-competitive, he checks all the boxes from an on-field and intangible perspective. There’s just so much to like about Jeremiah Smith and I think we saw why he was ranked No. 1 as a true freshman. He had the best true freshman season for a receiver in college football history. One of the best players in college football, regardless of position. He’s a historic receiver prospect and I think it’s safe to say, depending on how you define a generation, he is a generational receiver prospect.”

2023: QB Arch Manning

School: New Orleans Isidore Newman
Rating: 99.53
Signed With: Texas

Scout’s Take: “One of the more interesting and unique evaluations that I’ve been involved with was Arch Manning. We tabbed him as a top-five prospect very early in the cycle. He was the No. 1 quarterback and a top-five prospect in the initial On300 and On3 was the first outlet to make him the No. 1 overall prospect in that cycle — he ended up at No. 3 for us but No. 1 in the industry. Manning showed so much translatable ability with his size, quick release, arm talent and athleticism. I thought his arm continued to improve throughout his senior season. Of course there were questions as to the competition level, and we never really saw him in a neutral setting, so there was a little bit of unknown there. To this point, there’s still a degree of unknown, because we just haven’t seen a ton of extended action from him at the college level, but it should be fun to see how he plays at Texas. Certainly a really talented QB and one who I think will be the talk of college football once he officially takes the starting spot in Austin.”

2022: DL Walter Nolen

School: Powell (Tenn.)
Rating: 99.59
Signed With: Texas A&M

Scout’s Take: “The 2022 cycle was one where there was a lot of differing opinions on the top prospect. You had Walter Nolen, Travis Hunter, it was not a great quarterback cycle in hindsight, so kind of a unique year. Nolen was a high-floor prospect, a guy who had so much athletic ability at his size. He really played his best football as a senior after transferring to Powell. Very productive, good in every setting and I think he has a shot of being a late first-round pick.”

2021: QB Quinn Ewers

School: Southlake Carroll (Texas)
Rating: 99.62
Signed With: Ohio State

Scout’s Take: “Quinn Ewers was another interesting evaluation. One who had a dominant sophomore year at Southlake Carroll, was tabbed as the No. 1 prospect in the 2022 cycle’s initial rankings, then of course reclassified after his junior season, forgoing his senior year. It was late in the process, he reclassified in the summer before enrolling at Ohio State. In the On300, he ended up slotting in at No. 2 behind Caleb Williams, which at the time felt like the right decision, but in hindsight it certainly was. It’s unlikely that Ewers will live up to the five-star billing in terms of the NFL Draft, but he did have a great career at Texas and led the Longhorns to back-to-back College Football Playoff berths. He ended up having a great college career, I think there will be some what-if’s as to what would’ve happened if he stayed in the 2022 cycle.”

2020: DL Bryan Bresee

School: Damascus (Md.)
Rating: 99.58
Signed With: Clemson

Scout’s Take: “Bryan Bresee was another prospect who was identified very early in the cycle. He was tabbed as the No. 1 prospect in the 2020 cycle early on, continued to have a great high school career, dominated in the camp setting. Ended up getting passed in some rankings by Bryce Young and DJ Uiagaleilei in that cycle, Young of course went on to become the No. 1 pick, but Bresee was a very high-floor prospect and one who ended up becoming a late first-round pick.

2019: LB Nolan Smith

School: Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy
Rating: 99.56
Signed With: Georgia

Scout’s Take: “2019 was a very weird year in terms of the cycle at the top. Nolan Smith, there was a pretty wide variance on his ranking range, but he was a prospect who was identified early, super athletic, a guy who really dominated camps and played really hard on Friday nights. Transferred to IMG Academy in the middle of his high school career and then went on to become a late first-round pick.”

2018: QB Trevor Lawrence

School: Cartersville (Ga.)
Rating: 99.69
Signed With: Clemson

Scout’s Take: “Trevor Lawrence was really the second industry No. 1 prospect to end up being No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft and only the third prospect to have been ranked No. 1 by any outlet to be a No. 1 pick in the internet recruiting era, along with Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett. A historic quarterback prospect, a guy who an elite four-year starter in high school. He was on national radars really early, but what separates Lawrence from so many prospects who are on the radar early, is he continued to get better and better, improving his game every year. A super-skilled passer with a big arm, functional athleticism, made a ton of tough throws on Friday nights. That cycle there was a lot of back-and-forth between Lawrence and Justin Fields. I think knowing what we know now about QB evaluations, when you take a step back, the body of work that Lawrence put together, the year-over-year production and the number of pass attempts he had, in hindsight, really benefitted him.”

2017: EDGE Jaelen Phillips

School: Redlands (Calif.) East Valley
Rating: 99.53
Signed With: UCLA

Scout’s Take: “Jaelen Phillips was another big, athletic pass-rusher. Checks all the boxes physically and was hyper-productive as a senior in high school. When you go back and look at Phillips as a prospect, the combination of size, athleticism and production at a premium position made him the top prospect in 2017.”

2016: DL Rashan Gary

School: Paramus Catholic (N.J.)
Rating: 99.70
Signed With: Michigan

Scout’s Take: “Rashan Gary is a prospect who checked so many boxes, really dating back to his time as an underclassman at Paramus Catholic. He was a dominant performer at the Opening Finals going into his junior season and is one, when you take a look back at everything he brought to the table, with his size, verified athleticism, production, dominant film, there was just so much to like about Rashan Gary. He was, as far as defensive linemen go, really as close to a can’t-miss prospect as you can get. He also had inside-outside pass-rush versatility, which we’ve seen him become really an edge-rusher in the NFL.”