Three reasons why the Texas Longhorns will win the Big 12 in 2023

In advance of Big 12 Media Days later this week, Texas was the overwhelming pick to win the conference in its final year in the league, according to the preseason media poll released last Thursday.  

The Longhorns received over 60% of the first-place votes, and while ‘Texas is back’ has been meme’d to death for a reason, it was actually the first time in 12 years Big Burnt Orange was picked to win the Big 12. 

It’s not a surprise that UT was the media’s darling for 2023. The Longhorns have been among the most hyped off-season teams, and while they don’t have the best roster in America despite Urban Meyer’s opinion otherwise, Steve Sarkisian’s team is loaded this fall. 

“It feels and looks like my team,” Sarkisian said earlier this offseason. 

“The way the players talk. The way they act. The way they look. The way they move. How we practice. The speed. The tempo. All those things mean, ‘Ok, now we’re ready to go. This is what it’s supposed to look like.”

What does Texas look like?

The Longhorns return 15 starters (second-most production in the Big 12 after Kansas), including quarterback Quinn Ewers, one of the best linebackers in the country in Jaylan Ford and a slew of impact playmakers. Texas will be a Top 10 team when the preseason polls are released next month, and while a Week 2 visit to Alabama won’t have any impact on the Big 12 title race, a win in Tuscaloosa would only amplify expectations. 

So how about a little game of You Choose Your Favorite Path: Three reasons why Texas will win the Big 12 in 2023, and then stay tuned for a follow-up piece on three reasons why the Longhorns won’t win the league this fall.  

WHY TEXAS WILL WIN THE BIG 12 IN 2023

1. The Longhorns have the best offense in the conference

While Texas must replace All-American tailback Bijan Robinson, quarterback Quinn Ewers looks poised to make a sophomore leap this fall. The former No. 1 overall recruit has spent the offseason working on his mechanics, timing (especially on deep passes) and footwork. Ewers is surrounded by gobs of skill-talent at receiver and tight end, and will be protected by one of the best o-lines in the country.

Ja’Tavion Sanders might be the best tight end in the country not named Brock Bowers. Wideouts Xavier Worthy, AD Mitchell and Jordan Whittington are all future pros, while UT also gets back Isaiah Neyor, last season’s headliner transfer who tore his ACL in fall camp. Should any receiver get dinged up, Texas has 5-star freshman Johntay Cook II waiting in the wings. 

The Longhorns return four of five starters on the offensive line, headlined by sophomore left tackle Kelvin Banks. Should anything happen to Ewers (or if he struggles to start the season), Texas also has one of the best backup QBs in America in sophomore Maalik Murphy. 

A year ago, Texas averaged 35.1 points per game in Big 12 play — and it should be even more explosive in 2023. 

2. Texas fields a Top 25 defense in 2023

Somewhat quietly, Texas made dramatic improvements defensively in 2022, going from 106th nationally in SP+ to 15th. The Longhorns allowed just 4.94 yards per play, second-best in the Big 12, and were 28th nationally in scoring. 

They weren’t very good at creating turnovers or sacks, but they led the nation in pressures and didn’t allow a ton of explosive plays. Outside of All-American linebacker Jaylan Ford, Pete Kwiatkowski’s unit isn’t star-studded (see: Phil Steele’s preseason All-Conference teams that have just two Longhorns defenders listed on first-team and second-team), but it’s a veteran group that features seven or eight seniors in the starting lineup. 

Nickback Jahdae Barron and edge Barryn Sorrell are two upperclassmen who could have major 2023 seasons, while Arkansas transfer safety Jalen Catalon is a potential All-Big 12 candidate if he can finally stay healthy. 

3. Texas is a better situational football team this fall

The Longhorns were bad on third down in 2022, ranking 73rd nationally and No. 8 in the Big 12. They were even worse when forced to pass on 3rd down, checking in at 104 nationally. They were also middling scoring touchdowns in the red zone, finishing drives in the end zone just 62% of the time (65th nationally). 

Ewers, who dealt with a hand injury, had accuracy issues at times last season, especially on throws more than 15 yards downfield (just 39.2% completion). He’s healthy now though, and has an even better array of targets to work with.

Defensively, Texas didn’t generate takeaways (just 14 turnovers, 104th nationally) and was terrible getting off the field on fourth down (Hello Texas Tech!). The Longhorns allowed 20 fourth-down conversions.