Three reasons why the Texas Longhorns won't win the Big 12 in 2023

In advance of Big 12 Media Days later this week, Texas was the overwhelming pick to win the conference in its final year in the league, according to the preseason media poll released last Thursday.  

The Longhorns received over 60% of the first-place votes, and while ‘Texas is back’ has been meme’d to death for a reason, it was actually the first time in 12 years Big Burnt Orange was picked to win the Big 12. 

It’s not a surprise that UT was the media’s darling for 2023. The Longhorns have been among the most hyped off-season teams, and while they don’t have the best roster in America despite Urban Meyer’s opinion otherwise, Steve Sarkisian’s team is loaded this fall. 

“It feels and looks like my team,” Sarkisian said earlier this offseason. 

“The way the players talk. The way they act. The way they look. The way they move. How we practice. The speed. The tempo. All those things mean, ‘Ok, now we’re ready to go. This is what it’s supposed to look like.”

What does Texas look like entering 2023?

The Longhorns return 15 starters (second-most production in the Big 12 after Kansas), including quarterback Quinn Ewers, one of the best linebackers in the country in Jaylan Ford and a slew of impact playmakers. Texas will be a Top 10 team when the preseason polls are released next month, and while a Week 2 visit to Alabama won’t have any impact on the Big 12 title race, a win in Tuscaloosa would only amplify expectations. 

So how about a little game of You Choose Your Favorite Path: Earlier today I outlined three reasons why the Texas Longhorns will win the Big 12 in 2023. But what about three reasons why they won’t?

WHY TEXAS WON’T WIN THE BIG 12 in 2023

1. The Longhorns continue to lose close games 

Steve Sarkisian has failed to win 10 games even once in his head coaching career because his teams have a tendency for second-half meltdowns and close losses.

Texas coughed up late leads to Alabama, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State in 2022 — losing all three games by a combined 12 points. For the year, the Longhorns were just 2-5 in one-score games. They mostly dominated quarters 1-3 (+179), but were outscored in the fourth quarter/OT. 

What if they haven’t solved their second-half bugaboos? What if Sark continues to get tight late in games? What if the team’s situational football doesn’t improve? That’s how you win eight games instead of 10 — and miss out on the Big 12 title. 

2. The Longhorns’ 2023 schedule is tricky 

On the one hand, Texas leaves the Longhorn State just twice all season — only once in Big 12 play vs. Iowa State. 

But in a league where the margins between teams are quite thin, UT also draws the Top 5 teams with the highest preseason win totals in the conference — at Baylor, Oklahoma (Dallas), Kansas State, at TCU and Texas Tech. The game at Alabama won’t have any immediate impact on the Big 12 standings, but what if the Longhorns suffer a couple of notable injuries in the national spotlight affair before starting conference play?

Despite so much excitement around the Longhorns this fall, there’s a reason why they have the same preseason win-total as Oklahoma and some view Kansas State as a safer choice to repeat as league champs.  

3. Texas misses the two-headed tailback of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson 

While I expect UT’s offense to be really good in 2023, that doesn’t mean the Longhorns won’t miss last year’s prolific rushing tandem. 

Robinson and Johnson accounted for nearly 90 percent of Texas’ rushing yards and combined for 23 touchdowns. While he wasn’t used a ton out of the backfield, Robinson was also awesome as a receiver when he was targeted — averaging over 16.5 yards per reception on 19 catches. 

Sophomore Jonathon Brooks did average 6.5 yards per carry in limited work last season, but 109 of his 197 yards came in a blowout win over Kansas — the same game Robinson rushed for nearly 250 yards and four scores. Brooks didn’t see any action in nine games in 2022. What if he isn’t ready to carry the load? 

What if 5-star freshman CJ Baxter isn’t ready for primetime either? 

Even with the best tailback in the country last season Sarkisian got pass-happy late in games at times. What happens if he doesn’t truly trust more inexperienced opinions this fall?