CBS Sports expert gives six-pack of college football predictions for Week 5

On Thursday, CBS Sports college football expert Tom Fornelli released six picks against the spread ahead of Week 5 of the college football season. His picks this week feature a couple of massive SEC showdowns.

Fornelli’s picks are 14-10 so far this season, but he’s 6-6 over the last two weeks.

No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia (under 48.5)

Tom Fornelli likes to make his picks on the spread, but he couldn’t commit for Arkansas’s road game versus Georgia. Instead of betting on an 18-point spread, he picked the total to fall under 48.5. If he had to pick, however, Fornelli said he’d go with a Georgia cover.

“It should be a low-scoring affair since both teams have outstanding defenses,” Fornelli said. “Georgia enters the game ranked first nationally in defensive success rate, while Arkansas isn’t too far behind in 16th.”

Final score prediction: Georgia 31, Arkansas 14 | Under 48.5

No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama (-14.5)

Nick Saban’s track record versus his former assistants is stellar but the Tide didn’t cover 14.5 last season versus the Rebels, so this is a bold pick. Fornelli doesn’t see Lane Kiffin’s squad playing as clean of a game versus Alabama in Tuscaloosa this year.

“My concern isn’t the Ole Miss offense — it’s the defense that I’m not buying yet. The Rebels are improved in that area, but they still rank 60th nationally in defensive success rate against a schedule that hasn’t been filled with incredible offenses. Plus, the Rebels didn’t turn the ball over in this game last year and still lost by double digits. I think it’ll be a different story in Tuscaloosa.”

Final score prediction: Alabama 49, Ole Miss 31 | Alabama -14.5

No. 3 Oregon (-8) at Stanford

The Oregon Ducks got Tom Fornelli’s lock of the week, and all the Stanford Cardinal defense got was an insult.

“Oregon should be favored by 12.5 points in this matchup according to my power ratings, so there’s no way I can pass it up,” Fornelli said. “Stanford is soft as Charmin defensively. The Cardinal rank 118th nationally in defensive success rate and allow 2.39 points per possession, which ranks 109th.”

Final score prediction: Oregon 34, Stanford 21 | Oregon -8

No. 7 Cincinnati at No. 9 Notre Dame (under 50.5)

The CBS analyst is digging defenses for week five. He went with another under pick at 50.5 for top-10 teams Cincinnati and Notre Dame. Cincinnati is favored by just two points on the road.

“There’s something about Cincinnati being favored in South Bend that strikes me as disrespectful to the Irish,” Fornelli said. “Don’t get me wrong, the Bearcats are really good. However, this will be the most formidable defense they’ve seen in 2021 and the most challenging environment in which they’ll have played.”

Final score prediction: Notre Dame 24, Cincinnati 21 | Under 50.5

Minnesota at Purdue (Over 47.5)

Fornelli sees some skew happening with the Vegas total for Minnesota versus Purdue. Though Purdue ranks 8th nationally in defensive success rate and Minnesota ranks 22nd, there’s reason to believe both defenses are overhyped.

“Minnesota is coming off of a shocking upset vs. Bowling Green at home,” Fornelli said. “Public opinion of the Gophers isn’t going to be any lower than it is right now. Purdue’s numbers are helped tremendously by games against UConn and Illinois. This game will be higher-scoring than the line suggests and I’d take it at anything below 52.”

Final score prediction: Purdue 28, Minnesota 24 | Over 47.5

Southern Miss at Rice (-2.5)

Fornelli knows not many people are going to be watching Southern Miss versus Rice on Saturday. But he’s also seen enough of the Rice Owls to know there’s some low-hanging fruit to pick in this one.

“These are two bad teams, but the difference is that Southern Miss has at least shown some competence in one area,” Fornelli said. “The Golden Eagles rank 81st nationally in offensive success rate, but 18th in defensive success rate. That’s significant because Rice ranks 108th  and 113th, respectively, in those same categories.”

Final score prediction: Southern Miss 24, Rice 20 | Southern Miss +2.5