Top projected scoring defenses in college football, per Phil Steele

With the Georgia Bulldogs’ dominance in the College Football Playoff the last two years, it’s fair to say that defense is winning championships.

College football analyst and magazine author Phil Steele certainly knows that defense is vital to big time success, and has recently selected the 15 units on that side of the ball that he thinks will be best in 2023. The small difference is he’s rating teams by total points per game allowed per his projections, so it’s not a measure of the 15 best defenses flat-out. However, that allows for him to highlight plenty of defenses from lower-conference teams that will be strong.

So, below you can find the 15 defenses Phil Steele predicts will hold teams to the least amount of points per game in 2023.

1. Georgia

Coming off a national title ahead of last fall, Phil Steele expected the Georgia defense to dominate again, but even he underestimated the Bulldogs’ strength on that side of the ball in 2022. He called for a defense that allowed 16 points per game and UGA topped that number at 14.3 points allowed, also held opponents under 300 yards per game and won a second straight championship.

Of course, another swath of defensive stars left for the NFL (or just the Philadelphia Eagles) this time around. But you can expect more incredibly talented replacements and other youngsters stepping up, such as Mykel Williams and Malaki Starks, who could take leaps into superstardom this season after strong years in 2022.

2. Iowa

Well, we all know there’s one side of the ball where the Hawkeyes excel, and one where they don’t. Now that QB transfer Cade McNamara is a bit banged up, that typically stout defense will need to perform like one of the best units in the country once again — and that’s what Phil Steele is predicting.

Iowa was No. 1 in yards-per-play allowed in 2022 at just 3.99, meanwhile, they also gave up just 13.3 points a game, good for No. 2 in the country. Only seven starters return off that group, and the losses of senior leader Jack Campbell and disruptive defensive lineman Lukas Van Ness really hurt. But this program hasn’t allowed more than 20 points a game under Kirk Ferentz since 2015, so it’s fair to expect that trend to continue.

3. Penn State

The Nittany Lions allowed a hair over 18 points a game in 2022 but could be improved in 2023 per Steele. He writes: “This year, they have my No. 3 DLine, No. 4 LBs and No. 1 secondary, which means they should be ever stronger!” Whew, top five national rankings at all three phases of the defense is pretty strong.

Up front, PSU boasts a terrific pass rusher in former Maryland transfer Chop Robinson, who recorded 5.5 sacks in year one with PSU last fall. Then, at linebacker, there’s Abdul Carter, last year’s team leader in sacks with 6.5. Those two ought to make for a pretty strong 1-2 pass rushing duo. Which should make life a little easier on the elite CB combo of Kalen King and Johnny Dixon.

4. Air Force

Don’t raise your eyebrow, because the Falcons finished No. 3 in the nation in scoring defense a year ago, allowing just 13.4 points per game. They return the lion’s share of that unit with eight starters back, something Phil Steele notes as a rarity for the program.

“This year eight starters are back and they are No. 9 in the country in percentage of tackles returning, which is rare from them and they will be one of the nation’s best defenses,” he said in his preview of the team. Personnel-wise, the linebackers are solid, the defensive line gets Payton Zdroik back (second-leading sacker with 5.5 of them in ’22) and have five seniors slated to start in the secondary. An experienced group that was great last year and could be the top non-power conference defense in the country.

5. Michigan

Right behind Air Force sits the Michigan Wolverines, which does sound a bit odd considering how dominant UM has been on defense in the 2020s. Either way, fifth place is nothing to scoff at and it’s a respectable position for a Wolverine unit that should be terrific again, though does have some holes to plug despite getting its five leading tacklers back.

Mazi Smith and Mike Morris were the big departures up front, but guys like Kris Jenkins, Mason Graham and Jaylen Harrell provide suitable replacements. Meanwhile, the secondary loses its outside corners in DJ Turner and Gemon Green, while not having a totally clear picture of who will start at those spots at the moment. Will Johnson and Josh Wallace appear to be strong options, though.

6. Clemson

The Tigers weren’t bad on defense last year, but they did allow their worst scoring numbers in seven years, giving up 20.9 points per game. Now, for most programs, that’s still a highly respectable number. But for Clemson, it’s a figure that has to improve, especially given the questions still circling around the offensive side of the ball.

Luckily for Tiger fans, there’s optimism from Phil Steele that the unit is in line for a leap. “This year, eight starters are back with my No. 1 DLine, No. 2 LBs and No. 3 DBs in the nation,” he says. Top three at every spot ain’t bad, eh. With Xavier Thomas, Tyler Davis and Ruke Orhorhoro, that front line is horrifying. Then there’s two starters back leading the linebacker crew, plus a veteran and homegrown secondary.

7. Texas A&M

Defense was the Aggies’ saving grace in 2022. It ultimately did not save them as they went 5-7, but without a pretty solid defense, last year could have been even worse. With 10 starters back off a unit that allowed just over 21 points a game, Phil Steele is a believer. He says “they are clearly stronger” on D in 2023.

The secondary is a big reason why, as Steele notes it’s one of the best in the SEC thanks to returning lead tackler Demani Rcihardson at safety, plus North Carolina transfer Tony Grimes and coverage menace Tyreek Chappell. Elsewhere, there isn’t a ton of star power or name recognition yet, but just a bunch of solid players coming back off a defense that performed well last fall.

8. Fresno State

Bulldogs head coach Jeff Tedford has quietly built Fresno State into a top mid-major defense over the last couple of seasons. In 2021, FSU allowed just 20.5 points per game, then topped that figure by giving up just 19.4 per contest in 2022, despite returning just six starters off the previous unit. Now, in 2023, with seven starters back, Phil Steele predicts a similarly successful year on defense for Fresno.

“They do lose their star pass rusher,” writes Phil, “but do have two of the top CBs in the Mountain West and could be ever stronger.” That top pass rusher was David Perales, who recorded a monster 11.5 sacks a year ago. That figure will be tough to patch together. Meanwhile, that awesome CB tandem Steele referenced is juniors Carlton Johnson and Cameron Lockridge. Plus, Dean Clark comes over from Kent State to give these Dawgs another top defensive backfield.

9. Wisconsin

The 2022 Badgers returned just three starters on their defense and underwent a head coach firing in the middle of the season — yet they rallied to allow just 20.2 points per game. Sure, that was their highest mark in four years, but it’s still worth celebrating given the circumstances. So, with eight starters back and a defensive-minded new head coach in Luke Fickell, Wisconsin could be even better on D.

“DC Jim Leonhard is gone, but eight starters return and they will still use some of the principles that Leonhard used and could be just as strong,” Steele wrote of the unit in his preview. But included in that list of starters is not the top Badger pass rushers from a year ago — Nick Herbig and Keeanu Benton — who combined for 15.5 sacks. The rest of the unit is mostly intact and coming back, but finding guys as good as them to pressure the QB will be tough.

10. Florida State

FSU doesn’t have the recent defensive identity or track record of programs like Iowa, Wisconsin or Clemson — schools that pride themselves year-in and year-out on playing great defense. However, they do have the talent this time around. As soon as three seasons ago, FSU allowed north of five touchdowns per game on D, but they razored that number down to just 20.6 points last year, which you know is a pretty strong figure if you’ve been reading this whole article.

Anyway, for this season, nine starters return, headlined by superstar EDGE Jared Verse, who’s ready to prove his chops as a top five NFL Draft pick. Meanwhile, Fentrell Cypress comes from Virginia in to give the ‘Noles a stud at cornerback, while Kalen DeLoach and Tatum Bethune return as the starting linebacker duo after finishing No. 2 and No. 3 on the team in tackles a year ago. All the pieces are there for an elite defense in Tallahassee.

11. Ohio State

The Buckeyes haven’t put a truly dominant defensive unit on the field since 2019, when they held opponents to just 13.7 points a game thanks to Chase Young and a cast of fellow stars all around. In 2023, Phil Steele predicts a return to top flight defensive play in Columbus. “If the defensive line lives up to their billings, this should be one of the best defenses in the nation,” he writes.

Up front, OSU returns Michael Hall, JT Tiumoloau and Jack Sawyer — none of whom are seniors, but all could be in for breakout years as a tremendous starting DL unit. Then in the linebacker corps, First Team All-Big Ten MLB Tommy Eichenberg leads the way, with Lathan Ransom and Denzel Burke as the established talents in the back end. There’s a ton of experience and talent on that side of the ball for OSU.

12. Marshall

Over the last six seasons, the Thundering Herd have allowed an average of just 19.9 points per game on defense, with their two best seasons coming in 2020 (13.0!!!) and 2022 (16.0). Now, only four starters return off that terrific unit from last season, but Steele is bullish on the replacements, noting that “they will still be a solid defense.”

How could that be with all those starters gone? Well, the guys Marshall did get back are very good. Owen Porter is the beast up front who put up 9.5 sacks a year ago and returns for his senior season. As does Eli Neal, 2022’s team leader in tackles at middle linebacker, who chips in across the field as the QB of the defense. Then there’s superstar cornerback Micah Abraham, who was a pest in pass coverage with 10 deflections and SIX interceptions last fall.

A lot of talent left last offseason, but Marshall has some absolute freaks on the defensive side of the ball once again.

13. Toledo

Phil Steele has the Rockets picked to win the MAC West this year and in large part thanks to their defense. Toledo returns eight defensive starters and possess Steele’s top-ranked units in the conference at defensive line, linebacker and in the secondary to make it a clean sweep of the MAC. Let’s look at who makes up these great units…

Adrian Woliver has to be the star pass rusher this season. The Rockets lost their two loeading sack-getters from ’22 and need Woliver to step up and shine after generating 4.5 sacks of his own last fall. At middle linebacker, First Team All-MAC performer Dallas Gant returns after leading the team in tackles a year ago. Then in the secondary, Maxen Hook and Nate Bauer provide experience and versatility.

14. James Madison

The Dukes enjoyed their first year of Division I football last fall and have a brief appearance in the AP Top 25 to show for it. That flame extinguished pretty quick after JMU won five games to start the year, then lost three straight. However, they only lost those three games all year and finished 8-3. And with the defensive talent returning, don’t rule out another year where James Madison sneaks into the top 25 at some point.

Steele says “seven starters are back, including their top three tacklers, so they will be top notch again” on D. One of those top tacklers is nose guard James Carpenter, who racked up 5.5 sacks, six tackles for loss and even had three pass breakups as a sophomore in ’22. He should explode in his third year. Meanhile, the primary linebacker tandem is back and so is senior safety blanket Josh Sarratt in the back end.

15. Notre Dame

2022 was the first season since 2017 where Notre Dame gave up more than 20 points a game. In the second year of defensive-minded head coach Marcus Freeman’s tenure, with eight returning starters on that side of the ball, Phil Steele expects positive development to “an overall top ten defense.”

Getting their four leading tacklers back helps, especially the linebacker trio of JD Bertrand, Jack Kiser and Marist Liufau, who finished 1-2-3 in tackles in ’22. The player that needs replacement is Isaiah Foskey, who led the way with 11 sacks and six more hits on the QB last year. There’s not a player even close to his statistics waiting in the wings. Find that next guy in the defensive front and this Irish D should be stronger in ’23 compared to ’22.

And there are your 15 top defenses according to Phil Steele. It’s nice to see him include a good mix of traditional powerhouses along with some mid-major units to keep an eye on for the upcoming year.