Updated Big 12 Championship game scenarios: Four teams remain in contention

With a few hours and matchups remaining in the final week of the regular season for the 2024 college football season, the Big 12 title race is still fairly wide open. Though, the field has been winnowed down to four teams as of Saturday evening.

Arizona State, BYU, Colorado and Iowa State are all still alive to clinch a spot in the conference’s championship game. That’s down from the nine total teams that could’ve made it at the start of the day, but the four that remain were leading the pack, entering the weekend at 6-2 in conference play.

Now, a handful of situations remain.

Arizona State

Losses: at Texas Tech, 30-22; at Cincinnati, 24-14
Week 14 game: at Arizona — Arizona State won, 49-7

Arizona State is as close to being in the driver’s seat as possible, now having won. There’s only one scenario where the Sun Devils win and don’t make the title game, involving a string of results to go a specific way in a three-team tie.

And barring four other results going the exact wrong way for the Sun Devils, the biggest question with a win is who they’d face in the Big 12 title game. The most likely, seemingly, would be Iowa State, but little seems predictable for the Big 12.

BYU

Losses: vs. Kansas, 17-13; at Arizona State, 28-23
Week 14 game: vs. Houston — 10: 15 p.m. EST

The Wildcats are in need of an assist to get in the title game, requiring at least one of Arizona State or Iowa State to lose. BYU can’t get in if there’s a four-way tie at the top of the league, as it’s behind those two teams in the tiebreakers, as well. A Colorado loss does not directly impact BYU’s standing.

In a three-way tie atop the league, BYU would play whichever of Arizona State and Iowa State that didn’t lose. With Arizona State winning, the Cougars now need Iowa State to lose. And the Wildcats can of course still top make the title game via a two-way tie if two or three of the other teams at 6-2 lose.

Colorado

Losses: at Nebraska, 28-10; vs. Kansas State, 31-28; at Kansas, 37-21
Week 14 game: vs. Oklahoma State (Friday) — Colorado won, 52-0

The Buffaloes need some help to get to the Big 12 title game. Colorado can’t make it in a four-way tie and needs a good bit of assistance to make it in a three-way tie. The easiest path for the Buffaloes is seemingly to win and hope two of the other teams tied for first lose. Arizona State already won, so the Buffaloes are pulling for some results to fall their way.

And in a three-way tie, things need to fall very narrowly right for Colorado to make it. There are two scenarios for that, according to the Big 12’s own title race page. Both remain alive, but still require BYU to lose.

• BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, Baylor beats Kansas, and Cincinnati beats TCU — Colorado faces Iowa State in title game
• BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, TCU beats Cincinnati — Colorado faces Arizona State in title game

In short: Colorado needs some other results to fall right to get ahead of other teams atop the league in the tiebreakers. Texas Tech already won and TCU leads at half, so the Buffaloes will be big Houston fans on Saturday night.

Iowa State

Losses: vs. Texas Tech, 23-22; at Kansas, 45-36
Week 14 game: vs. Kansas State — 7:30 p.m. EST

The Cyclones are in a similar boat to the Sun Devils, mostly just needing to win and hoping they don’t get bounced in a three-way tie scenario that would put Colorado in. Outside of that or a loss, though, Iowa State is in a rather solid position.

And most of the title game matchups are likely to pit Iowa State against the Sun Devils, should they both win. At that point, the only way one could get bounced is BYU losing, Colorado winning, and the aforementioned strings of results to get Colorado in via a three-way tie.