Updated Big 12 Championship game scenarios: Four teams remain in contention

With a few hours and matchups remaining in the final week of the regular season for the 2024 college football season, the Big 12 title race is still fairly wide open. Though, the field has been winnowed down to four teams as of Saturday evening and, with results falling the right way, Arizona State has clinched a spot in the title game.

BYU, Colorado and Iowa State are all still alive to clinch a spot in the conference’s championship game. That’s down from the nine total teams that could’ve made it at the start of the day, but the four that remained entering Saturday were leading the pack at 6-2 in conference play.

Now, a handful of situations remain.

Arizona State

Losses: at Texas Tech, 30-22; at Cincinnati, 24-14
Week 14 game: at Arizona — Arizona State won, 49-7

With a spot clinched, the biggest question for the Sun Devils is who they’d face in the Big 12 title game. The most likely, seemingly, would be Iowa State. The Cyclones have a lead in the second half and a win would most likely see them play for the title.

But the Cougars and Buffaloes are still alive, too.

BYU

Losses: vs. Kansas, 17-13; at Arizona State, 28-23
Week 14 game: vs. Houston — 10: 15 p.m. EST

The Wildcats are in need of an assist to get in the title game, requiring at least one of Arizona State or Iowa State to lose. BYU can’t get in if there’s a four-way tie at the top of the league, as it’s behind those two teams in the tiebreakers, as well. A Colorado loss does not directly impact BYU’s standing.

In a three-way tie atop the league, BYU would play whichever of Arizona State and Iowa State that didn’t lose. With Arizona State winning, the Cougars now need Iowa State to lose. And the Wildcats can of course still top make the title game via a two-way tie if two or three of the other teams at 6-2 lose.

Colorado

Losses: at Nebraska, 28-10; vs. Kansas State, 31-28; at Kansas, 37-21
Week 14 game: vs. Oklahoma State (Friday) — Colorado won, 52-0

The Buffaloes need some help to get to the Big 12 title game. Colorado can’t make it in a four-way tie and needs a good bit of assistance to make it in a three-way tie. The easiest path for the Buffaloes is seemingly to win and hope two of the other teams tied for first lose. Arizona State already won, so the Buffaloes are pulling for some results to fall their way.

And in a three-way tie, things need to fall very narrowly right for Colorado to make it. There is now one scenario for that, according to the Big 12’s own title race page.

• BYU loses to Houston, Texas Tech beats West Virginia, TCU beats Cincinnati — Colorado faces Arizona State in title game

Iowa State

Losses: vs. Texas Tech, 23-22; at Kansas, 45-36
Week 14 game: vs. Kansas State — 7:30 p.m. EST

The Cyclones are in a similar boat to the Sun Devils, mostly just needing to win and hoping they don’t get bounced in a three-way tie scenario that would put Colorado in. Outside of that or a loss, though, Iowa State is in a rather solid position.

And most of the title game matchups are likely to pit Iowa State against the Sun Devils, should they both win. At that point, the only way one could get bounced is BYU losing, Colorado winning, and the aforementioned strings of results to get Colorado in via a three-way tie.