Upset over No. 2 Georgia could be the lone road for Billy Napier to end all hot seat scuttle

Exactly 10 years ago this week, then-Florida head coach Will Muschamp walked into the postgame press conference in Jacksonville and literally mimicked ripping an invisible monkey off his back after the Gators upset a Top-10 Georgia. 

“Let me lift this thing off my back,” Muschamp said, very emotionally. 

I remember because I was there. 

Florida was a mess in 2014, and Muschamp entered that Halloween weekend a dead-man walking. But then he seemingly rose from his hot-seat grave after UF, which had lost three of four, pulled off the stunning upset. 

Except the fairy tale ending didn’t actually happen. 

Two weeks later, the Gators choked away a win at home to South Carolina, sealing Muschamp’s fate. The Year 3 win over Georgia only carried so much weight. He was fired the next day.

A win over this Georgia team would dramatically change the job-security status for Billy Napier, though. 

Why a win over No. 2 Georgia could mean everything for Billy Napier

Similar to Muschamp, Billy Napier enters the Cocktail Party with most of the college world convinced he’s headed straight to the unemployment line at the end of the season. 

Napier is just 15-17 as UF’s head coach — 2-12 against ranked teams. He’s won a single rivalry game (Georgia, Florida State, LSU, Miami and Tennessee) — beating the Vols in 2023. 

And while he’s preached patience at every turn and taken a slow-burn approach to Florida’s rebuild, Saturday would be the optimal time for some juicy fruit to finally bear. 

His job could depend on it. 

Since losing at home to Texas A&M, Florida has won three of four. It should’ve upset a Top-10 Tennessee team in Knoxville. Napier deserves credit for keeping his team motivated and bought-in — especially with all the swirling noise around his job security. 

The Gators are clearly an improved football team from last season, too and much of that centers around a defense that has held three straight opponents under 320 yards and has allowed just 23 points per game over that stretch. They ranked 47th nationally in yards per play this season — hardly an impressive mark — but a substantial jump from last year when it finished 122nd nationally. Napier can point to the fact that he addressed a major staff issues, particularly by bringing in former Auburn DC Ron Roberts. 

Florida has shown progress and promise on offense, too, as 5-star freshman DJ Lagway has added an explosive element to UF’s passing attack. Lagway is still super raw and has been a total “home run or strikeout” quarterback, but his ability to make wow throws and splash plays has super-charged a static offense. 

In five games as UF’s starter, Graham Mertz had six throws over 25 yards. Lagway has 14 such passes in spot duty and two starts. I joked after the win over Kentucky that the freshman quarterback must only carry $20s and $50s in his wallet because all seven of his completions went over 40 yards.

So progress has been shown. But still not to the point where Napier is out of the woods, yet. 

The win-loss record carries a lot of weight, and it should. 

This is still a coach who has all of three wins over FBS teams with a winning record. This is still a coach who choked away games against Vanderbilt, Florida State, Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee. 

And this is a coach who understands his situation. 

“The mindset (around the team) has shifted a little bit I think. I think the makeup of our team, you know, I think we’re in a lot better place in that regard,” Napier said this week on Florida’s improvements. 

“Look, I mean, it’s a production business. We got to do it on the grass. We played better the last few weeks, a little bit more like we anticipated playing as a team, certain parts of our team in particular. I have a respect for the attitude and the effort of the group, the resiliency of the group. That’s the term I would say that’s impressed me the most.

“Again, these things I talked about, the performance, character of the group has improved, sure. There is a noticeable difference in the effort, the intensity, and the execution of the football.”

Barring something unforeseen, Napier will be given the rest of the season to avoid the coaching executioner. AD Scott Stricklin doesn’t want to fire Napier, and UF’s vacuum of leadership at president buys the head coach some time, too. 

But at 4-3 with games remaining against No. 2 Georgia, No. 5 Texas, No. 16 LSU, No. 19 Ole Miss and Florida State, wins will still be hard to come by. 

Napier is going to have to beat FSU and pull-off an upset just to get to 6-6 — and that record alone might still mean curtains on his tenure. 

Except one upset would carry far more influence, weight and import than any other: Beating Georgia on Saturday. 

A win this Halloween weekend could end all hot-seat scuttle because of what it would represent for Napier and the Gators. 

That patience should be rewarded. That signs of success are on the horizon. 

Georgia is ranked No. 2 nationally and has won two of the last three national titles. The Bulldogs are two weeks removed from everyone watching them suffocate top-ranked Texas in Austin in front of a 100,000. 

Kirby Smart is considered the best coach in college football, and Georgia hasn’t lost to a non-Alabama team since 2020. 

Who beat the ‘Dawgs then? Dan Mullen and the Florida Gators. 

Despite all of Napier’s missteps and mistakes, if he can beat this Georgia team, as a three-score underdog, then he can walk into his postgame press conference and remove the giant albatross on his shoulders just like Muschamp  — only this time it might actually mean something.