Using BCS formula to predict penultimate College Football Playoff Top-25, 12-team CFP bracket

With the regular season now over, the BCS Formula has provided one of the last looks at how the field would look when applying their process to the College Football Playoff.

BCSKnowHow.com released their updated rating of the Top-25 on Sunday evening ahead of conference championships next weekend.

The SEC led the way within their ranking with seven teams in the Top-25 from the BCS. However, the Big Ten was right behind with five, including four in the Top-10 with each of those making the CFP. The ACC and Big 12 then had four apiece as one-bid conferences in the bracket while the Mountain West and American and two each respectively with one independent that was in as well.

With that, here’s how the Bowl Championship Series would have projected the second-from-last ranking and field for this week in the College Football Playoff:

No. 1. Oregon Ducks

Oregon remained at No. 1 in the BCS Ratings after finishing with an undefeated record of 12-0. They did so by closing the season with a 49-21 win over Washington on Saturday.

Now, the Ducks have a date with Penn State in Indianapolis this weekend as, in their debut season in the conference, they made the Big Ten Championship. That’s all that would be between them and being the No. 1 overall seed, even potentially if they were to lose that game, in the College Football Playoff.

No. 2 Texas Longhorns

Texas ended their season at 11-1 overall in their first year in the SEC. They did that with a 17-7 rivalry win on the road against Texas A&M in a Top-20 matchup from College Station.

The Longhorns will now head to Atlanta for a rematch against Georgia, who they lost to by 15 earlier this season in Austin. The outcome in that one would be the difference in them getting a first-round bye as the likely seed at No. 2 or being the first at-large as the No. 5 seed in the CFP.

No. 3 SMU Mustangs

SMU ranked at No. 7 in the BCS Model but, as the highest-rated team out of the ACC in their first year there, finds itself here for the playoff at No. 3. That’s after they also finished at 11-1 overall with a 38-6 win over California.

The Mustangs have to earn this slot, though, in a game against Clemson in the ACC Championship. Still, even with a loss to the Tigers, they could make their way in as an at-large depending on how the rest of the sport looks after next weekend.

No. 4 Boise State Broncos

Boise State moved into the final spot in the Top-10 and remained the No. 4 seed as one of the four highest-rated conference champions out of the Mountain West. They did so with an 11-1 overall record, with the only loss coming by three on the road at Oregon, after winning at 34-18 over Oregon State.

The Broncos are well ahead of the next-closest option out of the Group of Five. However, that next team is who they’ll be facing in the Mountain West Championship with them and UNLV having a rematch, in Idaho this time, that could be for a spot in the playoff.

No. 5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. No. 12 Arizona State Sun Devils

Notre Dame, which is now the No. 3 overall team in the BCS Rating, would get the No. 5 seed in this projection as an independent that is at 11-1 overall after winning the final ten games of their season. That seeding is literally as good as it can get for the Fighting Irish, especially considering their loss is the worst of anyone in the ranking.

Arizona State (10-2), which was rated at No. 14, would come to them in South Bend as the No. 12 seed as the winner of the Big 12 Championship. While this could also be Iowa State with who wins in Arlington on Saturday, it looks as though the champion from the Big 12 will not get a first-round bye for now, at least in these projections, depending on what happens in the Group of Five.

No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions vs. No. 11 Alabama Crimson Tide

Penn State, at No. 4 in the ranking by the BCS, would then get the next at-large seed at No. 6 with an overall record of 11-1. That would have them hosting a playoff game in University Park and may continue to have them doing so even with a loss to the Ducks in the Big Ten Championship.

With that, Alabama, the last team in at No. 11 at 9-3 overall, the lone three-loss team currently in the projection, would go to Beaver Stadium. That’d be an accomplishment in their debut season under Kalen DeBoer, especially so with the regular-season record and without having played in the SEC Championship.

No. 7 Georgia Bulldogs vs. No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers

Georgia, who rounds out the top-five at 10-2 overall, would then be hosting a playoff between the hedges. They could still earn one of the four byes, though, depending on the outcome of their rematch with Texas, a team that they already beat at 30-15 in Austin, this weekend in The ATL.

Indiana, which rated at No. 9 at 11-1 overall, would be the team that goes to Athens as the No. 10 seed in this playoff projection. Everyone who had ever had doubts about the Hoosiers would then get their chance to see how valid they are with them playing on the road against one of the best teams in the country.

No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers

Ohio State, who lost at 13-10 in The Game on Saturday to finish at 10-2, fell from No. 2 to No. 6 in the BCS Rating, which cost them the No. 5 seed as they’d now be the No. 8 here. It’d still mean a home game in the playoff despite not playing in the conference championship but would mean a much more difficult path to winning the national title.

Tennessee, at No. 8 for the BCS at 10-2 overall, would be who plays in Columbus as the No. 9. That’d make for a big-time matchup for the Vols against the Buckeyes with the winner moving on to play the No. 1 overall seed, which in this case remains Oregon, in the quarterfinals of the CFP.

Full BCS Top-25 following Week 13.

1. Oregon Ducks
2. Texas Longhorns
3. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4. Penn State Nittany Lions
5. Georgia Bulldogs
6. Ohio State Buckeyes
7. SMU Mustangs
8. Tennessee Volunteers
9. Indiana Hoosiers
10. Boise State Broncos
11. Alabama Crimson Tide
12. South Carolina Gamecocks
13. Miami Hurricanes
14. Arizona State Sun Devils
15. Ole Miss Rebels
16. Iowa State Cyclones
17. BYU Cougars
18. Clemson Tigers
19. Illinois Fighting Illini
20. UNLV Rebels
21. Missouri Tigers
22. Army Black Knights
23. Colorado Buffaloes
24. Syracuse Orange
25. Memphis Tigers