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Villanova vs Michigan State: How to watch, odds, predictions from ESPN, KenPom

On3 imageby:Andrew Graham•11/18/22•

AndrewEdGraham

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INDIANAPOLIS, IN - NOVEMBER 15: Michigan State Spartans guard Jaden Akins (3) talks to Michigan State Spartans guard Tyson Walker (2) walk back onto the court during the men's Champions Classic college basketball game between the Kentucky Wildcats and Michigan State Spartans on November 15, 2022, at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN. (Photo by Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Michigan State hosts Villanova on Friday at the Breslin Center in East Lansing in the latest installment of the Spartans murderers row non-conference schedule. MSU has already split a pair of games against Gonzaga and Kentucky — both Top 5 teams at the time — on neutral courts, but now gets a game at home.

See how KenPom, ESPN and others have broken down the Spartans and Wildcats.

How to watch Michigan State vs. Villanova

Tipoff: 8 p.m.

Location: Breslin Center, East Lansing, Michigan

Channel: Fox Sports 1

Vegas odds

Michigan State is a 6.5-point favorite to get the win at home against Villanova, according to odds from VegasInsider. The over-under is sitting at 130.5 as of Friday morning.

ESPN Basketball Power Index prediction

Predicted winner: Michigan State

Predicted point differential: 4.2

Win probability (for MSU): 67.8%

Matchup quality: 78.4

The BPI is a fan of the matchup, giving it the seventh-highest matchup score of the Friday slate (78.4). Michigan State is a solid pick to win at 67.8%, per the BPI, but is only projected to win by 4.2 points.

KenPom prediction

Predicated final score: MSU 69, Villanova 63

Win probability (for MSU): 85%

KenPom is similarly bullish on the Spartans, giving MSU a 69% chance to get the win, by a score of 69-63.

More on Michigan State and Villanova

Michigan State comes into this game about as hot as a 2-1 team can be, fresh off a Tuesday win in double overtime against Kentucky. Third-year center Mady Sissoko has been a revelation early and Joey Hauser developing a new scoring knack have helped the Spartans play much better than the sum of its collective parts to date.

And the loss for MSU? By one point to Gonzaga in a game that was played on a boat.

Villanova’s start to the season has been notably bumpier — not a surprise when the program is still settling in to a post-Jay Wright world under new head coach Kyle Neptune. The Wildcats got pounced on in their second game on the road at Temple, losing 68-64. Villanova hasn’t been a world-beater, otherwise. The talent and pedigree is there, but there’s a reason the Spartans are being given the slight edge playing at home.