Was Baylor collapse at Colorado the first line of Dave Aranda's denouement as Bears head coach?
The final 10 seconds of regulation in the Baylor–Colorado game was such a masterclass in mis-execution that it will be shown as a teaching point in defensive meeting rooms for years to come.
After dodging a blown coverage on Colorado’s initial ‘Hail Mary’ attempt (a fortunate drop by Buffs wideout Will Shepard), the Bears needed one more stop to escape Boulder with a 31-24 win.
Two seconds remaining. Ball on the Baylor 43-yard line.
Dave Aranda called a timeout and dialed up a play called, ‘Victory Cigar’ — insert all your irony jokes here — only instead of walking away with a pivotal Big 12 victory, Baylor got smoked because every mistake that could’ve happened … did.
For some reason, Baylor’s corner is in 1-on-1 coverage and plays press-man at the line of scrimmage. The outside linebacker blitzes directly into the left guard, completely abdicating his contain responsibilities. The deep safety is in complete no-man’s land, with heels near the back of the end zone.
Add it all up, and that’s how Shedeur Sanders pulled this off:
The Bears would go on to lose 38-31 in overtime, with Aranda dubbing the calamity of errors on the touchdown pass “inexcusable.”
“That’s something I’ve never seen,” Aranda said.
“I take full responsibility for that. I have to find a way to coach that better.”
Dave Aranda isn’t wrong, but how many more chances is he going to get after another devastating defeat? The nice guy routine can only last so long, and Saturday’s meltdown might just be the lede of Aranda’s denouement as Baylor’s head coach unless he can engineer a serious turnaround.
Can Aranda, Baylor recover from a crushing loss?
Dave Aranda was once one of the nation’s highest-paid defensive coordinators, praised for his unique personality, acumen and ability to coach all manners of talent. Aranda was successful at Utah State, Wisconsin and LSU, but outside of a major outlier 2021 season, his message hasn’t stuck in Waco.
With Saturday’s loss, Aranda is now just 27-25 at Baylor — 11-18 since winning the Big 12 Championship with a 12-2 year in 2021. He’s had all sorts of staff turnover through five seasons, and he took over defensive play-calling responsibilities this offseason.
After last season’s 3-9 finish, Arnada took ownership for Baylor’s unaggressive NIL campaign and admitted he needed to use the transfer portal more as a roster-building tool. He moved on from solid OC Jeff Grimes in favor of former Texas State head coach Jake Spavital.
The administration in Waco wants Aranda to succeed, but saying “I take full responsibility” for the team’s latest flop has never been the issue with Arnada.
Accountability is at the top of his resume. Successful seasons? That’s a different story.
Perhaps “Victory Cigar” was the perfect play call, but the execution was so embarrassing it’s fair to question if Aranda has ever used that call before in a game.
“We had an injury earlier in the game, and so we had a backup in one of those spots,” he said, detailing the missed assignment by the outside linebacker.
“We wanted to see what their formation and so we called timeout prior to that play. We had the drawings of that play and we were showing drawings, and we went to opposite sides. The guy that was up and under went away, and the guy that was contain went to the other side. When you watch that play you’ll watch someone come from the right just go up and under.
“That’s a shame, because he’s contain.”
It was certainly a grave mistake, but Aranda offered no explanation for why Baylor’s field corner was in press coverage or the safety was hiding deep in the Rocky Mountains.
The Bears are now 2-2. They’ve already benched former Toledo quarterback Dequan Finn for Sawyer Robinson (which looks like a good move), and outside of the collapse at Colorado, their defense has shown improvement with Aranda back at the helm (4.3 yards per play, No. 3 in the Big 12 compared to 6.6 last season).
But Arnada needs wins — plural — to save his job, and instead of being 3-1 with a potential path to a bowl game, he’s staring at a four-week stretch that goes No. 22 BYU, at No. 18 Iowa State, at Texas Tech and No. 20 Oklahoma State.
Come the end of October, that hot seat could be so fiery it could light a cigar.
After Sanders’ dart to tie the game, many drew similarities to Colorado’s famous ‘Hail Mary’ over Michigan 30 years ago when Kordell Stewart connected with Michael Westbrook for the winning touchdown.
But for Baylor (and Aranda’s perspective), Saturday’s debacle reminded me of another gutting ‘Hail Mary’ loss that became the writing on the way for another maligned head coach.
In 2017, Butch Jones watched his Tennessee team totally botch a prevent defense in the final seconds at Florida, allowing Feleipe Franks to throw a 63-yard touchdown to a wide open Tyrie Cleveland for the winning score.
The Vols would go on to lose their next five games against SEC opponents and Jones was fired come early November.
Can Aranda avoid a similar fate?
Right now, it’s hard to see it playing out any other way.