Week 2 Stock Report: Texas, Notre Dame are legitimate College Football Playoff Contenders, SEC hope of two-bid league looks up in smoke

Between Texas’ upset over Alabama, Colorado moving to 2-0 and Miami dismantling Texas A&M, Week 2 of the 2023 season delivered in spades.

Every Monday, I take note of whose stock — be it team, head coach, player, assistant, unit, Heisman candidacy, preseason narrative, etc. — is trending upward, whose is down and whose is holding.

Here’s the Week 2 Stock Report:

📈STOCK UP: Texas and Notre Dame are legitimate College Football Playoff contenders

Two of college football’s most prestigious bluebloods have the capital-LOOK of being two of the best four teams come season’s end. 

What Texas did in Tuscaloosa — emphatically outplaying and outcoaching Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide was a statement.

Texas is back? I don’t know. But I know the Longhorns are a complete football team that no longer is simply a hypothetical. 

With Quinn Ewers throwing moonshots to an awesome set of receivers and the Longhorns’ OL and DLs bullying a Top 5 team, Texas has its most signature win since the national title in 2005. That Ace will be in their sleeve all fall, too. This isn’t just a team capable of winning 10 games. They’re a wagon who could ride a special season to their first CFP appearance.

As for Notre Dame, Sam Hartman has completely changed the ceiling for the Irish in 2023. The senior quarterback has been flawless through three games, averaging 11.4 yards per attempt (fourth-best nationally) with 10 touchdowns and zero picks. The Irish’s offensive success rate in 2023 ranks 10th nationally. They’re No. 2 nationally in total EPA — a category where they ranked 56th in the country a year ago.  

With two of the best tackles in the nation and a game-breaker with Audric Estime, the Irish should be able to run the ball all season. Freshman tight end Holden Staes (TD catches of 40 and 35 yards vs. NC State) looks like a freakish matchup for most linebackers and safeties. 

They have a Top 10 defense, and Marcus Freeman is much more comfortable in his second season as head coach. If Notre Dame simply wins the games it’s supposed to (which include ranked teams like Duke) and goes 2-of-3 against Ohio State (at home in two weeks), USC (at home) and at Clemson, at 11-1 the Irish make the dance. 

📉STOCK DOWN: The SEC’s chances to be a two-bid league in 2023

Since the inception of the College Football Playoff in 2014-15, the SEC is the only conference with multiple teams making the four-spot field twice. During the preseason, there was a swell that it could happen again in 2023, with Georgia the two-time champs and folks split on the potential of LSU and Alabama. In my preseason predictions, I picked both the Bulldogs and the Tide to make the playoff. 

None of that is happening. LSU isn’t going to run the table to get back to the CFP. Alabama, while capable, looks more like a 9-3/10-2 rather than one that’s going to catch jet fuel and rocket toward an 11-1 finish and a win in the SEC Championship. 

But let’s say I’m wrong and that does happen. I don’t know if even a then 12-1 Georgia (undefeated regular-season, lose to Alabama in Atlanta) would get in because the rest of the SEC looks so watered down this year. The ‘It Just Means More’ conference ‘Just Keeps Getting Waxed’ in marquee matchups. The league is 3-6 vs. Power 5 teams in 2023 — with all six losses coming by double-digits (Florida, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Vanderbilt). Furthermore, we now have a bevy of other CFP contenders — the trio in the Big Ten, Notre Dame + new-blood like Texas, Florida State, USC and Washington. 

Ordinarily, I’d say the committee would give the reigning champs the benefit of the doubt. They have in the past, and in a typical season, would again. But this is already shaping up to be an outlier year. There are more contenders, and there will be teams left out at the end. Through two weeks, that likely includes a second spot for the SEC.

STOCK HOLDING: That Tyler Van Dyke and Miami’s offense is totally fixed

The Hurricanes were one of the biggest winners of the weekend, dismantling Texas A&M with a strong second-half showing. They didn’t fold when they made some mistakes early, and they routed the Aggies 48-33 in a game that wasn’t actually even that close. 

Tyler Van Dyke was sensational, delivering a career performance with five touchdowns and 12.5 yards per attempt. Despite some drops by Miami’s wideouts, TVD still threw for 374 yards on 21 of 30 passing. The Hurricanes were bombing the Aggies’ secondary, with first-year OC Shannon Dawson scheming up all sorts of wide-open firework shots (seven pass plays over 20 yards). The retooled OL held up in pass pro. Even Miami’s much-maligned receiver room has shown early signs of growth. 

But I need a few more data points before I’m all-in on the offensive turnaround. This is still a group we don’t know can run the ball against a defensive line with a pulse (just 74 yards vs. TAMU). They still struggle to score TDs in the red zone (87th nationally). Van Dyke was ok in Week 1 and phenomenal Saturday, but he still needs to string together a couple of great showings in a row (not career-nights like vs. the Aggies necessarily) before I believe he’s back to the TVD of the last six weeks of 2021. 

The signs are very encouraging. I like what I’ve seen from Dawson’s offense. I just want to see a little more.  

📈STOCK UP: Colorado going bowling in Deion Sanders’ first season

The Buffs are going to a bowl game in Year 1 under Deion Sanders. They might do better than that, but after starting the season 2-0 — doubling their win total from 2022 already — they’re going to get to six wins. After breezing past Nebraska playing a B- game, the Buffs are one of two teams in the AP Top 25 with a pair of wins over Power 5 programs. 

With Shedeur Sanders operating Sean Lewis’ offense and those receivers, Colorado is going to score points every Saturday. Against the Cornhuskers, they proved their defense won’t be the worst in the Pac-12, either.  

The schedule remains very difficult (eight Pac-12 teams are ranked), but with games remaining against Colorado State, Arizona State, Stanford, Arizona and Washington State, six wins are there — which would be an incredible accomplishment for Sanders and his program in Year 1. 

📉STOCK DOWN: Jimbo Fisher’s chances to win 10 games for the first time at Texas A&M

Jimbo Fisher is still owed more than $75 million after this season, so after just two weeks into the 2023 season, it’s far too soon to speculate on any hot seat talk in College Station. 

The anxiety meter has absolutely been mashed, but as I’ve said all offseason, let me know what the price of oil is come Thanksgiving. Then that + depending on what Texas A&M’s season looks like could merit a conversation. 

I came around on the Fisher-Bobby Petrino union and predicted the Aggies would see a sharp spike offensively. The early returns there have been fairly promising (see: Connor Weigman and Evan Stewart), but this is still a Jimbo Fisher-coached team where good things can’t happen at the same time. 

Suddenly, Texas A&M’s defense — one that features a bunch of 4- and 5-star recruits — looked slow, infective at pressuring the QB and wilted late. Their secondary, which was billed as a strength this offseason, looked like Swiss cheese against Miami. The OL struggled to protect Weigman.

Yet ultimately, there’s too much talent for Texas A&M to go 5-7 again. Heck, even 6-6. But a 10-2 season ain’t happening either. The Aggies continue to be a team plagued by dumb, self-inflicted mistakes. Saturday was their first test in 2023, and Fisher’s team failed. Again. With more tests on the schedule, (at Tennessee, vs. Arkansas, Ole Miss, Alabama, at LSU) this team is going to sputter another couple of times — meaning another season where Fisher fails to win 10 games.