Week 4 Stock Report: Tennessee's staying power, Missouri as paper tiger, Utah remains Big 12 favorite, indispensable tailbacks at Iowa and Michigan
Week 4 was a little wonky, but still entertaining. There were only a couple of upsets, but USC-Michigan was a dandy and Tennessee choke-slamming Oklahoma certainly sent a message to the rest of college football.
So after four weeks, what teams, players, narratives, etc. am I buying and selling heading into the final weekend of September?
Read on.
The 2024 Week 4 Stock Report:
📈STOCK UP — Tennessee’s staying power
Back in the summer, I wrote a column headlined: Nico Iamaleava garners all the attention, but Tennessee’s defense will determine College Football Playoff hopes in 2024.
The Vols are an avalanche — offensively and defensively. But it’s clear that Iamaleava still has plenty of room to grow, develop and learn — whereas Tim Banks’ defense is chalked with MEN who signed up for 60. Tennessee’s front seven put Oklahoma’s offensive line in blender and made mincemeat of quarterback Jackson Arnold. The Vols had 11 tackles for loss and it felt like 11 defenders were in the backfield on most plays.
James Pearce is the headliner, but Tennessee rotates close to a dozen dudes up front. When other teams are wilting from the heat and pressure, the Vols are bringing in fresh bodies ready to bang.
Unlike the fun 2022 squad led by Hendon Hooker, these Vols have staying powers against the other bullies in the SEC because they’re a bully in the trenches now, too.
Their playoff odds skyrocketed with the win Saturday night (now north of 70%), and they’ll be favored in every game (yes, including vs. Alabama on the Third Saturday of October) outside of a road tilt at Georgia.
These Vols aren’t going anywhere — except to the CFP.
STOCK HOLDING — Utah as the Big 12 favorite
The Utes have lone been my pick to win the Big 12 and represent the league in the inaugural 12-team playoff, and they passed their first big test Saturday winning at Oklahoma State without starting quarterback Cam Rising.
Isaac Wilson made just enough plays in relief (he threw for 200 yards and had two key runs on third and fourth down) but are we sure Utah can just muck its way to a conference championship without its seventh-year senior at quarterback?
Aside from Saturday’s win in Stillwater, Utah has been a very different team with and without Rising. They’re the favorites for sure with Kansas and Arizona (see below) folded under expectations and Kansas State suffering a bad early loss at BYU. But Iowa State is frisky and the Utes must still face BYU and UCF, too. Don’t write the Utes in pen just yet.
📉STOCK DOWN — Missouri looks like a paper tiger
Eli Drinkwitz’s team plummeted just outside the Top 10 over the weekend — and Mizzou won on Saturday. The Tigers were penalized anyway by voters because they had to outlast Vanderbilt in double-overtime at home.
Mizzou remains undefeated with a posh schedule (no Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss or Tennessee), they do not look like a true College Football Playoff contender right now.
Maybe the bye week comes at the opportune time to for an offense to discover some rhythm and big-play potential. Despite having one of the best receiver rooms in the SEC, Missouri has just seven plays over 30 yards all season — tied for 11th in the SEC. They’re struggling to convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns (59th nationally) and they badly miss the Thiccer Kicker (freshman Blake Craig missed three field goals Saturday, and is 11 of 16 on the season).
And I haven’t even mentioned the defense yet, which had to replace DC Blake Baker and clearly misses guys like Darius Robinson, Ennis Rakestraw Jr. and Ty’Ron Hopper. Against both Boston College and Vandy, they looked a step slow and susceptible to massive busts.
Again, the good news they have time to iron out some issues, but if they don’t start playing better, Missouri can absolutely lose to the likes of Texas A&M, South Carolina or Oklahoma — even though it misses most of the top-tier teams in the league this fall.
📈STOCK UP — Indispensable Big Ten running backs
Everyone knows about the talented two-headed tandem at Ohio State, but with apologies to Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, the two most important individual offensive players in the conference play at Iowa and Michigan.
Seriously.
Both the Hawkeyes (junior tailback Kaleb Johnson) and Wolverines (senior Kalel Mullings) won games Saturday where they threw for 62 and 32 yards, respectively.
They did so only because they had two workhorses at tailback who single-handedly carried their offenses to a win. Against Minnesota, Johnson had 206 yards on 21 carries with three touchdowns. He accounted for 10 of the team’s 19 first downs in a 31-14 win — and forced 10 missed tackles. On the season, Johnson has 685 yards (8.4 per carry) with nine touchdown (all of which lead the Big Ten).
As a team, Iowa has passed for 588 yards (5.8 per attempt) with three touchdowns and two picks.
The Hawkeyes’ offense would be dead in the water without Johnson this season.
Meanwhile, the nation saw first-hand just how important Mullings is to Michigan’s offense. He churned out 159 yards — 100 yards coming after contact.
With Alex Orji at quarterback, the Wolverines aren’t even going to pretend to try to throw the ball anymore. Unlike Cade McNamara at Iowa, Orji is at least a number in the run game for Michigan, which should help open up more running lanes for Mullings for the rest of the season.
While Donovan Edwards was on all the preseason magazines and the cover of NCAA Football 25, he’s neither the most indispensable player or top tailback on his own team this season.
In Michigan’s three wins, Mullings is averaging 135 yards on 16 carries. In the loss to Texas, he had six carries for 25 yards.
As he goes. They go. Otherwise, Michigan’s offense (*with this quarterback and a lackluster set of receivers) has no shot to move the ball.
📉STOCK DOWN — Preseason Polls
I enjoy a good preseason poll or Way-Too-Early-Top 25 rankings like any CFP junkie, but let’s admit, every year we learn these are just fun exercises and we actually know nothing.
The best teams are the easiest to spot, and thus far, the 2024 season has gone chalk at the top. Tennessee and Miami have surged up the rankings, but otherwise the Top 10 looks very similar to how it did in August.
The rest of the AP Poll, though?
Not so much!
Florida State (1-3), Arizona (2-1), Kansas (1-3) and NC State (2-2) are all out and unlikely to renter the rankings.
Oklahoma State (or Kansas State), Texas A&M and Oklahoma are in serious danger of falling out of the Top 25 as soon as next weekend.
That’s almost a third of the field and it’s not even October yet.
Meanwhile, Bret Bielema has Illinois 4-0 and ranked. Same for Kalani Sitake and BYU — both teams were seen as preseason 50-50 bowl squads.
Again, until games are being played, we actually know nothing.