Week 5 mailbag: A College Football Playoff hypothetical, the top Big Ten defense, ranking Pac-12
We kick off Wednesday’s mailbag with a very interesting hypothetical ‘What if?’ question around the final year of the four-team College Football Playoff. I also tackle inquiries on the best Big Ten defense, ranking the Pac-12 contenders and a Heisman Trophy gripe.
As always, you can submit a question via my internet mailbox at [email protected] or send a DM/Tweet reply @JesseReSimonton.
This week’s questions…
There’s all these hypothetical ‘This is what a 12-team playoff would look like this year’ but what happens is we have undefeated teams from all five conferences in the final year with four teams? Who gets left out? — Rob
Cue the Kramer head exposition GIF.
That’s a good one.
So in his scenario, we’re looking at an undefeated team from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC. In the final year of the College Football Playoff with four teams, one conference gets hosed.
My initial lean is it’s either the ACC or Big 12. But let’s walk through it.
Whoever wins the SEC (let’s say Georgia does run the table) gets in for sure. Same for the winner of the Big Ten (be it Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State, one of whom would have wins over both on the resume). The Pac-12 could cannibalize itself, but what if Oregon or USC just beats everyone? They’d have multiple ranked wins on their ledger, and in this scenario, the Trojans would even have an extra nice non-conference win in their belt against Notre Dame.
That leaves either the ACC or Big 12 winners for the last spot.
If Texas runs the table, it’s a slam dunk.
A win on the road at Alabama plus likely beating Oklahoma twice tips the sales. That trumps a Florida State, Miami or North Carolina resume from the ACC. But if it’s Oklahoma? Then maybe it’s more a debate.
The Sooners would likely have two wins over Texas in this hypothetical, but would that be better than a Miami team with a blowout victory against Texas A&M and two wins over FSU (plus beating Clemson and UNC?)? I don’t know.
It’s a brain twister for sure.
Those in favor of the 12-team playoff would have their pitchforks out in force if this crazy outcome were to happen. Fortunately, since we don’t even have a consensus answer to who the best team is in 2023, I think we’re safe.
But never say never I guess.
In the On3 Heisman Trophy poll, no one voted for Bo Nix. Why not? Oregon is 5-0 and Nix has 15 touchdowns and just 1 INT. The Ducks are killing teams. Show my guy some love. – Jason
There’s only three spots on the ballot my man! Bo Nix absolutely deserves mention, as does fellow Pac-12 QB Cameron Ward at Washington State. This weekend’s Red River Rivalry is a Heisman showcase spot for Quinn Ewers and Dillion Gabriel, too.
But through five weeks, Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr. and Jordan Travis have been better in my eyes. Now, Nix will have heads-up opportunities against both Williams and Penix Jr., so his candidacy will get settled on the field.
Several of my colleagues voted for Georgia tight end Brock Bowers this week, which was interesting. Bowers is one of the best pure football players in the country, and is definitely among the most valuable and important players to his team in 2023.
You know who else fits that description that — like Nix — hasn’t received any Heisman love yet but could soon?
Missouri wideout Luther Burden III.
The former 5-star prospect has emerged as perhaps the best receiver in the country as a sophomore, torching teams on a weekly basis. Burden leads the nation with 644 yards, averaging 15 per reception.
He has four straight games over 100 yards and has five touchdowns. With LSU’s leaky secondary on deck, Burden looks in store for another big game this weekend. And if the Tigers continue to win (next three weeks vs. LSU, at Kentucky and vs. South Carolina) then he’ll start to get some buzz, too.
Penn State, Ohio State and Michigan all have Top 10 defenses. Which unit would you take for the rest of the season? — Blane
All three defenses are awesome. They actually ranked 1-2-3 nationally (Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State) in scoring.
In terms of yards per play, Michigan actually falls outside the Top 10 (24th at 4.75), while Penn State (2nd at 3.79) and Ohio State (4th at 4.1) are both in the Top 5.
Two other impressive team stats:
The Wolverines haven’t played a single red zone snap inside the 10-yard line this year.
Penn State is the only defense in the Top 5 in both sacks and takeaways.
I think this comes down to those two units, too. Ohio State is really good. But Michigan and Penn State are elite so far.
I don’t think there’s a wrong answer here, but I’m riding with Manny Diaz and the Nittany Lions. While Michigan is the better overall team, Penn State is the top defense.
PSU ranks No. 1 in success rate, EPA and EPA/play and it hasn’t even had ‘WOW’ games yet from the likes of Abdul Carter, Chop Robinson or Curtis Jacobs.
Washington, Oregon and USC are all ranked in the top 10. Washington State is 13 and Oregon State is 15. How would rank these Pac-12 teams? – Matt
And you forgot the reigning two-time Pac-12 champs Utah, which is No. 18, Matt.
I think Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12 this season. Thus far, SP+ and other metrics agree.
The Ducks are the most complete team, and of all the conference contenders, they’re the only ones that have completely steamrolled every opponent on their schedule.
The Pac-12 battle royale will play out over the next two months, starting with Oregon at Washington next weekend. Entering the first weekend of October, here’s how I would rank the Top 6.