What Colorado's impending return to the Big 12 means for the Pac-12, the potential conference realignment dominos

Greg Sankey is adamant the SEC is content to stand at 16 teams for the time being.

“Period. End of sentence.” Remember?

New Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti echoed a similar sentiment Wednesday during his comments at media days, saying, “The focus remains on USC and UCLA … integrating and implementing the new football schedule.”

Well, we’re about to find out if that’s all true. 

Colorado returning to Big 12, starting in 2024, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. After 12 seasons in Pac-12, Buffaloes – and Ralphie – run back to become 13th school in Big 12, where they were members from 1948-2010. Official announcement later todayhttps://t.co/IOo8LWB2Jd pic.twitter.com/R5KUsZbMZG

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) July 27, 2023

After months of openly Snapchatting “You up?” with the Big 12, Colorado is reportedly set to leave the Pac-12 for its former conference. 

Remember when Deion Sanders was billed as George Kliavkoff’s golden chip for a better Pac-12 media rights deal? 

Well, the league still doesn’t have a contract and Sanders is now at the center of perhaps a potential massive conference realignment butterfly effect. 

Sanders, who’s yet to coach a game for the Buffs, is reportedly in favor of the move, per CBS, because “the fertile recruiting grounds of Florida Texas — both in the Big 12 footprint — would both open even further for the Buffaloes.”

Obviously, Primetime has strong ties to both states, so that’s unsurprising. But this is about money. In a vacuum, Colorado returning to the Big 12 is interesting, but the bigger question is what sorts of dominos does this mean for the rest of college football?

WHERE DOES THE PAC-12 TURN NEXT?

This is simply the latest embarrassment for Kliavkoff, who’s doing a heckuva Larry Scott homage.

Remember the failed “Alliance?” Now, Kliavkoff was caught off guard again with CU’s impending move, as just last Friday the commissioner said that future conference realignment it is, “Not a concern. Our schools are committed to one another and the Pac-12. We’ll get a media rights deal done … I think the realignment that’s going on in college football will come to an end this cycle.”

And here’s the kicker: “The truth is we have bigger fish to fry.”

Not anymore. And a school that hasn’t won more than three Pac-12 games in eight years might’ve just cooked the conference. 

The Pac-12 is teetering now, and although Kliavkoff has put on a brave face amid a drawn-out media rights negotiation, unless he has immediate answers, the league is in legitimate danger of becoming Jegna in college football’s game of realignment. 

At first glance, the conference’s quickest solution might be to simply circle back to San Diego State, which recently asked for a divorce from the Mountain West only to say, ‘Just kidding. We never filed the paperwork.’”  The complicating matter here are finances, though. SDSU would owe more than $30 million in exit fees to leave the Mountain West. That’s money they likely can’t afford, meaning they’re probably not a viable option until 2025 or 2026 — and who knows where the realignment winds will be howling by then. 

Still, if Kliavkoff can pull it off, the short-term solution might stop the conference from bleeding teams to other leagues. 

Meanwhile, Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark has made it clear he intends to add multiple schools with his “open for business” declaration several months ago, so Colorado isn’t is the league’s sole target. 

A year removed from adding four schools — Cincy, UCF, BYU and Houston — to the league, Yormark recently told On3’s Eric Prisbell he would be “a little disappointed” if the Big 12 didn’t add two more teams by 2025.

Well, one down, at least one more to come? Maybe more?

With 13 schools not set to play in the league in 2024, it makes sense to add at least another team, but Yormark has been aggressive and may not be satisfied until the Big 12 has 16 schools like the SEC and Big Ten. 

We know Yormark has flirted with the other “Four Corner” programs in Arizona, Arizona State and Utah. The Wildcats’ president Bobby Robbins has gone on record multiple times that Arizona won’t make any rash decisions until it sees the Pac-12’s media rights deal. 

Is that still true?

Arizona makes sense for the Big 12, which has emerged as the best basketball conference in the country — and provides the league continued staying power as a potential Big 3 conference considering the NCAA Tournament is a billion-dollar enterprise. 

Would Arizona leave without Arizona State, though?

If the Big 12 does decide to dive head-first into becoming a hoops-first conference, potential additions include Gonzaga (basketball only) and UConn. 

But what if Yormark makes a play for Oregon or Washington?

The potential dominos could have reverberations across the entire sport of college football.

The Pac-12 would be crippled if such moves were to happen, essentially making the conference a Nos’d up version of the top Group of 5 league. 

How would the SEC and Big Ten — which have both puffed their chest that they’re not interested in further expansion right now — respond? 

Would the Big Ten — which notably has not sought out Oregon or Washington yet — pounce to add a Northwest quadrant to its league first? Would the SEC explore creative avenues to continue its “regional footprint” with some of the “angry seven members of the ACC?” We recently learned that the ACC’s hard-and-fast grant of rights deal that doesn’t expire until 2036 can be negotiated — it’s just going to cost a ton of money in court. 

It’s all fascinating. And while we know Colorado will simply be the first domino to fall, we don’t know what is going to happen next. Clearly, George Kliavkoff doesn’t either, and that’s exactly why we’re in this situation in the first place.