What should we expect from Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame in 2023?

Notre Dame is the biggest brand in college football. The Irish kickstart the 2023 season Saturday with a Week 0 showdown against rival Navy across the pond. Marcus Freeman enters a pivotal Year 2 after a rollercoaster debut as a head coach 2022. 

And yet, with everything else happening across college football this offseason — from conference realignment chaos to the narratives that bluebloods USC, Texas and Florida State are “back” — Notre Dame has flown under the radar a bit. 

So what should we make of the Irish, ranked No. 13 in the preseason AP Poll, in 2023? 

Despite embarrassing hiccups against Marshall and Stanford, Notre Dame finished last season winning seven of eight games, including beating South Carolina in the Gator Bowl. The Irish bring back one of the best set of offensive tackles in the country, a deep front-seven, gifted tailback Audric Estime and made a major upgrade at quarterback with the addition of Wake Forest record-holder Sam Hartman.

After five straight seasons with double-digit victories under former head coach Brian Kelly, the expectation is for Freeman to vault Notre Dame back into the College Football Playoff contention.

But is that realistic this fall?

In what equates to the Monday Night Football corollary, all eyes will be on the Irish tomorrow afternoon (2:30 p.m., NBC), so many will make sweeping conclusions about their 2023 team during that three-hour window. Don’t be that silly. 

This is a preseason game in Ireland that technically counts. Navy has a first-year head coach and is the only school in America that will run the true triple-option this fall (that’s right, even Army has modernized thanks to the new cut-blocking rules). 

The game will be sloppy. The weather will be ugly. Hopefully, the stadium doesn’t run out of beer this year. And Notre Dame will win. 

But are there another nine wins on the schedule? I don’t see it, and that’s not because I don’t think highly of the Irish this fall. 

The irony of Notre Dame — NOTRE DAME — of being overlooked to start the 2023 season is that it hasn’t exactly been a quiet offseason in South Bend. Landing Hartman was a major boon for Freeman, but he’s also dealt with a slew of coaching departures. Tommy Rees bolted for Alabama and then Notre Dame had the embarrassingly public flirtation with Utah offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig only to end up promoting internally. 

Veteran offensive line coach abruptly retired in February and then esteemed strength and conditioning coordinator Matt Balls, who stayed at Notre Dame with Freeman over joining Kelly at LSU, resigned from the program the day before fall camp. 

It’s a lot, and yet, I think Freeman will be a better coach in Year 2. He got some of the yips out last fall, and again, the Irish were a strong bully down the stretch last season. The defense projects to be a Top 15 unit, per SP+, and they won’t field the worst red zone defense in the nation (79.4% TD rate allowed) again. Offensively, whether Rees remained the OC or not, the offense is going to be better simply because of the weapons — at both quarterback and receiver — are better. The Irish are counting on a couple of freshman wideouts (Jaden Greathouse and Braylon James) to make an instant impact, but there’s also buzz around guys like sophomore Jayden Thomas and converted slot wideout Chris Tyree to create more explosive plays (tied for 117th nationally in plays over 40 yards).

The issue for the Irish is their schedule.

There are land mines everywhere. 

ESPN’s metrics rank Notre Dame’s strength of schedule 20th nationally, and frankly, that seems to be selling them a bit short. SP+ gives Notre Dame a “10% chance of going 10-2 or better or going 6-6 or worse.” 

The Irish open the season with two gimmies, but eight of their next nine games are against Top 40 teams. 

They play at NC State in Week 3. They host No. 4 Ohio State two weeks later. There are midseason road trips to Duke and Louisville. Home games against Pitt and Wake Forest will be tricky, and don’t forget No. 6 USC comes to town in mid-October and a November road trip at No. 8 Clemson. 

That’s a gauntlet. 

Not all 8-4 or 9-3 seasons are created equally. The Irish may be a fringe Top 10 team this season, but from this vantage point, they look hard-pressed to deliver Top 10 results.