Dear Andy: Where do Brian Kelly, Lincoln Riley, Mario Cristobal and more stand in a 2022 new coach re-rank?

Hindsight is 20/20, but it can get pretty blurry on a year-to-year basis, and you, the listeners of Andy & Ari On3, have questions. Let’s dive into the latest edition of Dear Andy to answer your college football questions.

From Trenton:
Looking back, who were the best and worst hires in the 2022 offseason?

This is a fascinating question, because our answers would have changed dramatically from year to year. The coaching carousel in late 2021 and early 2022 was wild. Florida, LSU and USC opened because of firings. Then Oklahoma, Notre Dame and Oregon opened because Lincoln Riley went to USC, Brian Kelly went to LSU and Mario Cristobal went to Miami.

After the first year, we’d probably have said Sonny Dykes (hired by TCU from SMU) was the runaway best hire because he took the Horned Frogs to the national title game in year one. Would we say that now after a 5-7 2023 and a 4-3 record so far this year? Probably not. Meanwhile, Riley’s Trojans just missed making the four-team College Football Playoff after a bad second half in the Pac-12 title game against Utah. Our opinion of that hire was a lot higher than it is now.

Plus, there were some down-the-line hires that didn’t get much attention when they happened that look positively brilliant now.

With the benefit of (ever-changing) hindsight, let’s re-evaluate the hires from that offseason.

Currently looking great

Dan Lanning, Oregon: Lanning was a pretty popular hire when the Ducks signed the former Georgia defensive coordinator. But his reputation has only gotten better as he has continually made the roster better. His three losses to Washington were a sticking point, but a win against Ohio State earlier this month — along with his exploitation of a rulebook loophole to help the win — have created a more favorable opinion of Lanning as a big-game coach. He has a team that looks capable of winning a national title, and he’s handling it very well.

Brian Kelly, LSU: Kelly won the SEC West in year one. He had the Heisman Trophy winner and a record-setting offense in year two, but it was saddled with a historically bad defense. Still, the Tigers won nine games. They’re currently 6-1 (3-0 in SEC play) and about to play against another guy on this list whose team is 6-1 (4-0 in SEC play) on Saturday.

Mario Cristobal, Miami: After the not-taking-a-knee thing against Georgia Tech last year, the odds of Cristobal appearing in this section of the list looked slim. But he’s done exactly what he said he’d do at Miami. He’s beefed up the Hurricanes on both lines of scrimmage, and Miami’s aggressive transfer portal strategy has filled the gaps and created a team that looks capable of making the CFP and competing against the superpowers of the sport.

Rhett Lashlee, SMU: The former Miami and Auburn offensive coordinator quickly rebuilt the roster after Dykes left, and Lashlee won the American Athletic Conference in year two and has the Mustangs competing in the ACC in their first year in that league. In the process, he managed to keep two capable quarterbacks and make his team deeper in the trenches.

Here for a good time, not for a long time

Kalen DeBoer, Washington: We’ve spilled plenty of pixels evaluating DeBoer’s current situation at Alabama — where the Crimson Tide have lost a shocking two of three — but this is about DeBoer’s Washington tenure after coming from Fresno State. The only knock on that two-year stint is that DeBoer left so soon. He went 25-3 in two seasons and made the national title game last year. He developed Jimmy Lake (and some Chris Petersen) recruits into NFL players. He probably did too good of a job, which is why Alabama tapped him to replace Nick Saban.

Mike Elko, Duke: This was one of the best hires of this cycle. Duke had gone 5-18 in the two seasons before hiring then-Texas A&M defensive coordinator Elko. He went 17-9 in Durham and radically reshaped the roster. And when Texas A&M trustees revolted at the idea of hiring Kentucky’s Mark Stoops, Elko was the logical next candidate. He’s currently 6-1 at Texas A&M and about to face Kelly’s Tigers on Saturday at Kyle Field.

Jon Sumrall, Troy: Had that Stoops hire gone through at Texas A&M, I’d be writing about how Sumrall was successful at Troy that it got him the Kentucky job. Instead, he was so successful at Troy that it got him the Tulane job. The defensive guru was 23-4 in two seasons with the Trojans, and his quick turnaround of the program drew attention from everywhere. (Which means he might get offers that could pull him away from Tulane quickly.)

Ask again after Saturday

Marcus Freeman, Notre Dame: Freeman has done a great job building Notre Dame’s roster, but he’s taken some shocking losses (Marshall and Stanford in 2022; Northern Illinois this season) and has yet to lead the Fighting Irish to a signature win against a power. (Though the season-opening win at Texas A&M could evolve into one if Elko keeps winning.) Saturday’s game against Navy feels like a bit of a referendum. Notre Dame should win this game, but the Midshipmen are legitimately excellent this season. There’s no shame in losing a game like this for a program that aspires to be pretty good. But Notre Dame doesn’t aspire to be pretty good. It aspires to compete for national titles. It’s supposed to win games like this. 

Hanging in

Sonny Dykes, TCU: Following the 2022 season, when Dykes took the Horned Frogs to the national title game in year one, no one would believe Dykes would fall into this category. But this is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately business, and Dykes has presided over a pretty average program since then. The ascension of SMU hasn’t helped, but TCU really needs to be competitive in the Big 12. Losing to Houston, which got shut out in its first two Big 12 games before playing TCU, certainly didn’t help. But at least the Frogs beat Utah last week.

Tony Elliott, Virginia: Elliott handled a horrific situation at the end of year one with incredible poise. A former Virginia player murdered three players and wounded two other people in a shooting spree. The Cavaliers are still dealing with the fallout from that. On the field, they have gotten better. They’re 4-3 now after going 3-9 last season, and while the back end of the schedule is tough, a bowl berth is on the table.

Brent Pry, Virginia Tech: It was a rough start for Pry, but he has the Hokies in an acceptable place now. They need to keep getting better, but they certainly seem to moving in that direction.

Joey McGuire, Texas Tech: After a middling first two years, McGuire’s Red Raiders started hot in Big 12 play this season but got pasted at home by Baylor this past weekend. This was supposed to be the year Texas Tech evolved into a conference title contender. That can still happen. The next three games (TCU, Iowa State, Colorado) will tell the tale.

Looking bleak

Lincoln Riley, USC: Riley’s Trojans have been better than, say, Billy Napier’s Florida teams, but USC hasn’t gotten anything close to the return on investment it expected when Riley was hired. This year’s team already has lost four conference games in its first Big Ten season. Even if it runs the table — which is tough with Notre Dame still on the schedule — year three will still be considered a failure. USC owes Riley too much to move on now, but it’s fair to ask if he’ll ever give the Trojans what they seek.

Billy Napier, Florida: The Gators’ win against Kentucky provided some hope, especially considering it was the first SEC start for highly touted freshman D.J. Lagway. But Napier is 15-17 and still needs a Hail Mary to save his job in Gainesville. The next four games are against Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU. By the end of year three, Florida needs to look like it belongs on the field with those teams. If not, it’s probably time to move on.

Brent Venables, Oklahoma: An unnecessary extension after a 10-3 year two probably keeps Venables safe, but he already sacrificed offensive coordinator Seth Littrell to the mob just in case. The Sooners have been unlucky (their top five receivers are hurt) but the coaching staff also has been derelict in its duties in terms of developing the offensive lines and tight ends. Teams that can’t block typically struggle in the SEC, and Oklahoma is learning that the hard way.  

From Phillip:
Why is Georgia passing the ball more than they run it? Is that a problem or no big deal?

It’s only a problem if the Bulldogs aren’t moving the ball effectively. Otherwise, it’s a case of an offensive coordinator — Mike Bobo, in this case — calling the plays that suit this group of players best. Unfortunately for Bobo, the numbers say this version of the offense isn’t as productive as previous ones.

Phillip is absolutely correct that Georgia throws more than it runs this season. The Bulldogs are throwing 56.3 percent of the time. Last year, Bobo’s first as OC during the Kirby Smart era, Georgia threw 47.7 percent of the time. In 2022, Todd Monken’s final season as OC, Georgia threw 46.9 percent of the time. In 2021, which like 2022 also ended with a national title, Monken’s offense threw 42.8 percent of the time. Now let’s look at the average yards per play each of those offenses produced.

2021: 7
2022: 7.2
2023: 7.3
2024: 6.4

This year’s offense is underperforming compared to the last three, which all had a fairly similar run/pass ratio that leaned a little heavier on the run. Not surprisingly, all those Georgia offenses ran the ball better than this one has so far this season. Let’s look at average yards per carry.

2021: 5.3
2022: 5.5
2023: 5.3
2024: 4.5

A variety of factors could be causing this. Offensive line injuries — guard Tate Ratledge has been out since the Kentucky game and center Jared Wilson just returned from injury — probably have played a role. Tailback Roderick Robinson averaged 8.2 yards a carry as a freshman but has yet to play this season after having preseason surgery to repair a turf toe injury. 

This all has forced Georgia to lean on a pass game that averages 7.9 yards per attempt, which isn’t nearly as explosive as last year (9.4), 2022 (9) or 2021 (9.3). Think of it this way, last year’s team would have reached its current passing yardage total in 222 attempts. This year’s team has needed 262. Of course, last year’s team had tight end Brock Bowers and receiver Ladd McConkey. 

So this offense isn’t as explosive as last year’s on the whole, and the (also less explosive) pass game has had to bail out the run game, which averaged only 3.1 yards a carry against Alabama and 3.6 yards a carry against Texas.

Should Phillip worry? Yes. Georgia lost at Alabama when the defense floundered in the first half. The Bulldogs only won at Texas because the defense set up the offense for scoring drives of 13, 13, 34, 25 and 4 yards before the offense finally did its part with an 89-yard fourth-quarter touchdown drive to ice the game.

The thing that made the 2021 and 2022 Georgia teams so scary was that even when the opposing offense could overcome the aliens on Georgia’s defense, Georgia’s offense was more than capable of helping the Bulldogs win a shootout. 

Can this one? We haven’t seen it yet.

A Random Ranking

In honor of Texas minister of culture Matthew McConaughey asking Longhorns fans to never throw bottles on the field again, Glen wants me to rank the best McConaughey roles when he has facial hair. I’m going to make that a little less specific and just rank my favorite McConaughey performances.

1. Rustin Cohle, True Detective (season one)
2. Wooderson, Dazed and Confused
3. Mark Hanna, The Wolf of Wall Street
4. Adam Meiks, Frailty
5. Ed, Edtv
6. Jake Brigance, A Time To Kill
7. Mud, Mud
8. Ben, How To Lose A Guy in 10 Days
9. Palmer Joss, Contact
10. Brandon, Two For The Money