Where do power conference teams with first-year head coaches stack up in ESPN's 2024 returning production rankings, what it means?

The 2023-24 coaching carousel has unfolded like a five-part play. Northwestern and Michigan State had surprising openings that occurred before and early in the 2023 season, and later, Texas A&M became the first marquee job on the market when the Aggies finally decided to fire Jimbo Fisher. 

After a slew of other postseason openings, the dust seemed to settle until Nick Saban announced his stunning retirement, creating a ripple of available jobs at Washington, Arizona and elsewhere. 

Then Jim Harbaugh predictably bolted for the NFL, and less than a week later, Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley took a DC job in the league with the Green Bay Packers. 

With the Pac-12 gone, there is no more Power 5, but among the Core 4 conferences (plus Oregon State), there have been 14 coaching changes this cycle. Now is a good time to take stock of teams’ current personnel in terms of returning production. 

ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly, the creator of S&P, which is now SP+, released his initial data Monday. All 134 FBS teams were represented, and Connelly offered a reminder of how his numbers are weighted and that he’s continue to adjust the formula with the rise of so many transfers. 

OFFENSE: 23.5% returning WR/TE receiving yards; 24% of returning QB passing yards; 47.5% of returning OL snaps; 5% of returning RB rushing yards.

DEFENSE: 69.5% returning tackles; 12% of returning passes defensed (intercepted or broken up); 10.5% of returning tackles for loss; 8% of returning sacks.

RETURNING PRODUCTION ON POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS WITH FIRST-YEAR HEAD COACHES

David Braun, Northwestern — 6th nationally: 76% total production (53% Off, 88% Def)

Fran Brown, Syracuse — 10th nationally: 74% total production (81% Off, 67% Def)

Mike Elko, Texas A&M — 18th nationally: 72% total production (77% Off, 67% Def)

????, Boston College — 40th nationally: 67% total production (80% Off, 53% Def)

Brent Brennan, Arizona — 43rd nationally: 66% total production (70% Off, 62% Def)

Willie Fritz, Houston — 72nd nationally: 61% total production (59% Off, 63% Def)

Jonathan Smith, Michigan State — 73rd nationally: 61% total production (48% Off, 63% Def)

Curt Cignetti, Indiana — 85th nationally: 56% total production (59% Off, 53% Def)

Manny Diaz, Duke — 88th nationally: 55% total production (53% Off, 57% Def)

Kalen DeBoer, Alabama — 115th nationally: 44% total production (56% Off, 33% Def)

Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State — 122nd nationally: 41% total production (54% Off, 27% Def)

Trent Bray, Oregon State — 124th nationally: 40% total production (54% Off, 26% Def)

Sherrone Moore, Michigan — 128th nationally: 36% total production (24% Off, 47% Def)

Jedd Fisch, Washington — 130th nationally: 36% total production (19% Off, 52% Def)

WHAT COULD THE EARLY DATA TELL US?

A year ago, Wisconsin, Auburn and Nebraska all ranked inside the Top 40 nationally in returning production, yet none of the programs saw a major spike in improvement from the previous coaching regime. 

Still, on average, teams with a greater volume of returning production (from last year’s team + importing production from another team’s roster via the transfer portal) have directly correlated with improvement and regression ever since Connelly released such data in 2014. 

That would spell good news for first-year coaches at Northwestern, Syracuse and Texas A&M in 2024. 

David Braun did an excellent job with the Wildcats in 2023, earning a promotion from interim head coach after leading the team to a surprising 8-5 season. They return nearly 90% — tops in the nation — of their defensive production on a unit that improved dramatically last season already. 

Orange first-year head coach Fran Brown has aggressively recruited the transfer portal, and that work has paid dividends with a Top 10 roster in terms of returning production. 

Despite a seemingly mass exodus of talent, Mike Elko still inherited the bones of a quality team at Texas A&M. The Aggies lost a slew of backups, and Elko has replenished the roster with some quality transfer portal additions. Depending on what else Texas A&M can add to the team during the spring window, the Aggies might be a spoiler team in the SEC in 2024. 

A slew of first-year coaches inherited rosters that rank in the middle to bottom third, including Houston, Michigan State, Indiana and Duke. 

And then there’s the three 2023 College Football Playoff teams with new coaches, all who have seen lots of roster turnover in the last month. 

Michigan and Washington were natural regression candidates considering the two teams’ veteran rosters, but DeBoer’s departure created even more roster movement for the Huskies, while Harbaugh’s impending NFL move likely impacted some Wolverines’ players’ NFL decisions. 

Even with all the NFL turnover (potential 15 draft picks), Michigan has at least recruited well enough for Moore’s team to remain competitive in the Big Ten in 2024. But like TCU last season, Washington could be a national title runner-up that takes a real tumble the next season, as Fisch is looking at a roster that must replace 20 of 22 starters.

Alabama routinely ranks low in returning production due to Nick Saban’s propensity to send so much talent to the NFL, but now that Saban’s gone, can the Tide continue to win with comparatively inexperienced rosters and a new head coach?