Where do teams with coaches facing mounting pressure stand in the initial 2023 returning production rankings?

Earlier this week, I dove into ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly’s initial 2023 returning production rankings and data, examining which teams with new head coaches are best positioned for potential success in Year 1. 

Emphasis on potential success. 

It’s not a guarantee that just because a roster returns X amount of production that School Y will perform positively or negatively, but over time, the percentages correlate to improvement and regression. 

So what about teams with coaches entering 2023 with real pressure to win now? This isn’t an early hot seat list, but there are (at least) eight Power 5 head coaches who face varying degrees of heat entering next season. 

Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M

Neal Brown, West Virginia

Tom Allen, Indiana 

Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri

Jeff Hafley, Boston College

Dino Babers, Syracuse

Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern

Greg Schiano, Rutgers

Brown is on record this offseason acknowledging he faces a “win now” 2023. Fisher, Fitzgerald and Schiano are likely long-shots to get fired, but they each enter a pivotal 2023 season and their situations could get really uncomfortable with another disappointing year. 

Meanwhile, Drinkwitz has a big buyout ($20 million), but that hasn’t scared off SEC teams before. Then there’s Allen, Harley and Babers, none of whom have strong job security at this point. 

So what do these embattled coaches’ teams look like right now? Who might be positioned to engender some goodwill? Who could be looking at more trouble?

Off the jump, three of these coaches are fielding returning rosters that rank in the Top 10 of all of FBS. 

Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M – 7th (80% returning production: 82% OFF, 77% DEF)

Jeff Hafley, Boston College – 8th (78% returning production: 78% OFF, 79% DEF) 

Eli Drinkwitz, Missouri – 9th (78% returning production: 77% OFF, 80% DEF)

While the Aggies have seen close to 30 players depart the program this offseason, few were impactful perfumers in 2022. Those depth losses will be felt in the years to come. 

For now, Fisher brings back his starting quarterback Conner Weigman, top four wideouts (including Evan Stewart and Ainias Smith), Texas A&M’s entire starting OL and a host of former 5-stars on defense. 

The defense should be among the SEC’s best in 2023, but Texas A&M’s offense is a great example of how returning production doesn’t automatically = positive results or auto-improvement. 

The Aggies return most of their offense from 2022 — but that group was terrible, scoring 28+ points against a Power 5 team once all season. They were young, and have a new coordinator, though, so the potential is there. 

Overall, while Texas A&M’s schedule is tough, but there’s no excuse for this roster not to win 8-9 games. If not? Then check the price of oil come late November to see if A&M’s big-money boosters can stomach forking over $75 million for a new head coach. 

Hafley and Drinkwitz are in similar situations to each other. They’re well-liked by their administrations, coach at one of the also-rans of their conference and simply haven’t won enough in their first three seasons. 

Both enter critical Year 4s. 

Like Fisher at Texas A&M, Boston College brings back most of its offense from a unit that struggled mightily in 2022 (No. 122 in yards per play). 

Can Hafley’s staff find a way to get the most out of quarterback Emmett Morehead? Can the defense, which brings back key pieces like linebacker Kam Arnold (2 INTS, 75 tackles) and pass rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku (8.5 sacks), get back to being a Top 5 unit in the ACC like it was in 2021?

With the new division-less ACC, Boston College catches a schedule break this fall — with no Clemson or NC State on the 2023 slate. The Golden Eagles don’t play North Carolina or Notre Dame, either. Hafley  better take advantage. 

As for Drinkwitz, the Tigers return the bulk of a defense that was solid (No. 4 in the SEC) under first-year DC Blake Baker. It’s up to Drink to fix Missouri’s sputtering offense if the team is going to get back to bowling in the fall. 

Most of the Tigers’ starting OL returns, as does former 5-star wideout Luther Burden. Who Drinkwitz goes with at quarterback — incumbent  starter Brady Cook vs. redshirt freshman Sam Horn vs. Miami transfer Jake Garcia — will determine if the Tigers can make a leap and go bowling. 

Greg Schiano, Rutgers – 23rd (73% returning production: 73% OFF, 72% DEF)

Dino Babers, Syracuse – 24th (73% returning production: 73% OFF, 72% DEF)

Schiano is entering Year 4 with the a roster that has the second-most returning production in the Big Ten. 

That’s good news, bad news. The Knights bring back plenty of experience off a defense that was 8th in the conference in yards per play allowed. Not too shabby. 

But the offense — with 73% of its production returning — ranked last in the conference in passing (and 13th in scoring and total). That’s bad. They were No. 111th in offensive success rate. 

Schiano hired Kirk Ciarrocca as his new OC, as Rutgers must figure out the quarterback position (3 different starters in 2022). Schiano hasn’t had a winning season since coming back to New Jersey, but can he find a way to take a veteran roster he recruited to bowl eligibility? 

Syracuse was college football’s paper-tiger team in 2022, winning its first six games before losing six of seven to end the year. Dino Babers found himself entering the season on the hot seat, working his way off of it and then feeling mounting pressure again after a disappointing finish. 

The Orange did receive a boost this offseason when quarterback Garrett Shrader decided to return to school, as Babers, who has five losing seasons in seven years, needs all the help he can get with an upcoming schedule that includes Clemson, FSU, North Carolina and out of conference games against Army and Purdue. 

Tom Allen, Indiana – 41st (69% returning production: 65% OFF, 72% DEF)

Neal Brown, West Virginia – 66th (64% returning production: 60% OFF, 68% DEF)

Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern – 96th (56% returning production: 46% OFF, 66% DEF)

As for the rest of the coaches on this list, Tom Allen seems destined for a divorce from Indiana unless he can take the Hoosiers bowling in 2023. 

Indiana is 6-18 the last two years, and the Hoosiers’ returning production isn’t exactly exciting, especially from a defense that ranked last in the Big Ten to finish the 2022 season. 

Then there’s West Virginia, which has has been hit hard by the transfer portal for the second straight year. Brown has added a couple likely contributors to the roster (Kent State’s Ja’Shawn Poke and LSU TE Kole Taylor), but he still faces an uphill battle in Morgantown. 

As for Northwestern, Pat Fitzgerald remains a beloved son in Evanston despite the Wildcats going 1-8 in Big Ten play in three of the last four years. But things could start to get awkward at NU if Fitzgerald has another no-show season. The Wildcats’ offense ranks No. 115th in returning production, but considering how badly they stunk (No. 129 in EPA, No. 109 in success rate), maybe that’s not a bad thing? 

Fitzgerald shook-up the defensive staff in hopes of making that unit more efficient, too. 

The Wildcats will not be a Big Ten West contender in 2023, but winning more than a single game next season — and at least being competitive for bowl eligibility — would go along way in Fitzgerald securing more rope at his alma mater.