Where the On3 Consensus 5-star recruits are leaning

With many of the top prospects traveling across the country for unofficial visits over the past few weeks, players are gaining new information for their recruitments all the time. Some of it is positive. Some of it is likely more negative.

Either way, these visits are key to decision making and already impacting where these potential recruits land. The On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine is constantly updating, and some of the 2023 On3 Consensus five-star recruits have seen major swings recently.

RPM was released to the public in December. The On3 engineering group teamed up with Spiny.ai to create the industry’s first algorithm and machine learning-based product to predict where athletes will attend college. 

It factors in machine learning, expert predictions, social sentiment, visits, and historical trends. However, expert predictions are still a big piece of the RPM equation.

RPMs for the five-star recruits in the On3 Consensus

1. QB Arch Manning
Five-Star Plus+
School: New Orleans Isidore Newman
On3 Consensus grade: 98.65
On3 NIL Valuation: $1.6M
On3 RPM: Alabama 41.2%, Texas 36.3% Georgia 11.5%, Ole Miss 5.4%
The Skinny: The Crimson Tide are the current leaders in his recruitment but this race is far from over. Manning’s first visit of 2022 will be in two weekends when he travels to Austin, Texas, to see the Longhorns again.

3. CB Cormani McClain
Five-Star Plus+
School: Lakeland (Fla.) Lake Gibson
On3 Consensus grade: 98.05
On3 NIL Valuation: $55K
On3 RPM: Alabama 46.3%, Florida 24.5%, Miami 15.9%, Georgia 9.1%, Florida State 1.6%, USC 1.6%,
The Skinny: McClain has had schools moving in and out of his top schools lists for the last few months. Last weekend, McClain was at Alabama and this weekend he is visiting USC with his 7-on-7 team.

4. OT Kadyn Proctor
School: Des Moines (Iowa) Southeast Polk 
On3 Consensus grade: 97.25
On3 NIL Valuation: $28K
On3 RPM: Iowa 64.4%, Notre Dame 14.6%, Michigan 7.6%, Penn State 5.8%, Iowa State 5.5%
The Skinny: Proctor has visits to Iowa, Oregon and Penn State scheduled for next month. It is believed the Hawkeyes have the edge for this in-state five-star recruit.

5. QB Nico Iamaleava
School: Downey (Calif.) Warren
On3 Consensus grade: 97.22
On3 NIL Valuation: $55K
On3 RPM: Tennessee 57.6%, Oregon 24.0%, Alabama 7.3%, Georgia 5.8%, UCLA 2.7%
The Skinny: Iamaleava went on a visit last weekend to Tennessee, and the fans did everything they could do to convince him to play for the Vols. While the success of their efforts is unknown for the moment, Tennessee has momentum heading into the next few weeks of Iamaleava’s recruitment. He plans on committing this spring.

6. DL David Hicks
School: Allen (Texas)
On3 Consensus grade: 97.15
On3 NIL Valuation: $18.9K
On3 RPM: Texas A&M 55.8%, Oklahoma 42.4%
The Skinny: This appears to be a two-horse race between the Aggies and Sooners. Hicks made a surprise visit Thursday to College Station, Texas. He previously visited both schools earlier this year in January.

8. DL James Smith
School: Montgomery (Ala.) Carver
On3 Consensus grade: 96.72
On3 NIL Valuation: $15.9K
On3 RPM: Alabama 52.9%, Georgia 46.6% 
The Skinny: This is another apparent two-team recruitment at the moment, although many other blue bloods are trying to make it into a wider race. On3’s Chad Simmons reports Smith and high school teammate Qua Russaw — who missed being an On3 Consensus five-star recruit by one spot — are “likely” to sign with the same school.

9. IOL Francis Mauigoa
School: Bradenton (Fla.) IMG Academy
On3 Consensus grade: 96.58
On3 NIL Valuation: $13.1K
On3 RPM: USC 53.5%, Miami 17.5%, Alabama 15.7%, Oregon 12.2%
The Skinny: Mauigoa is going to release a top 10 on March 16. He told Gators Online that he plans on taking three official visits over the summer and two official visits during the fall.

10. EDGE Nyckoles Harbor
School: Washington (D.C.) Archbishop Carroll 
On3 Consensus grade: 96.55
On3 NIL Valuation: $27K
On3 RPM: Maryland 52.2%, Alabama 25.4%, Oklahoma 9.6%,  Penn State 5.0%, South Carolina 1.7%, Michigan 1.7%, North Carolina 1.6%
The Skinny: The local Terrapins are doing all they can to keep the five-star prospect in the Mid-Atlantic region. But they are going to have a withstand an Anchorman-style street fight with teams from across the country to land Harbor.

11. S Caleb Downs
School: Hoschton (Ga.) Mill Creek
On3 Consensus grade: 96.55
On3 NIL Valuation: $24K
On3 RPM: Georgia 81.6%, Alabama 9.9%, Clemson 4.8%, Notre Dame 1.5%, North Carolina 1.5%
The Skinny: As the No. 1 player from the state of Georgia, Downs is a top target for the Bulldogs. But Downs has other visits set up for the next few weeks. He will not be visiting Athens for Georgia’s spring game because he has prom.

13. WR Carnell Tate
School: Chicago (Ill.) IMG Academy
On3 Consensus grade: 96.30
On3 NIL Valuation: $29K
On3 RPM: Ohio State 96.2%, Notre Dame 2.6%
The Skinny: The Buckeyes are heavy favorites for Tate and he will be visiting the school at the start of April. But Tate is still looking at other schools, including USC this weekend.

14. LB Anthony Hill
School: Denton (Texas) Ryan
On3 Consensus grade: 96.25
On3 NIL Valuation: $27K
On3 RPM: Texas 41.3%, Texas A&M 25.6%, USC 23.7%, Miami 4.0%, LSU 1.7%, Oklahoma 1.7%
The Skinny: Hill has cut his list to Alabama, Miami, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M, and USC. He has his first visit scheduled to Tuscaloosa, Ala., for the team’s spring game.

15. QB Dante Moore
School: Detroit Martin Luther King
On3 Consensus grade: 96.22
On3 NIL Valuation: $48K
On3 RPM: Notre Dame 64.4%, Michigan 23.1%, Michigan State 5.2%, Penn State 1.6%, LSU 1.6%
The Skinny: On3’s Sam Spiegelman reported that Moore wants to play football in the Midwest, giving the Fighting Irish and Big Ten contenders a major edge in his recruitment. But he is also visiting schools outside the area, like LSU last weekend.

16. WR Shelton Sampson Jr.
School: Baton Rouge (La.) Catholic
On3 Consensus grade: 95.80
On3 NIL Valuation: $18.5K
On3 RPM: LSU 96.3%, Alabama 1.9%
The Skinny: A hometown kid who goes to school less than 15 minutes away from LSU’s Tiger Stadium, this recruitment is the Tigers’ to lose.

17. TE Duce Robinson
School: Phoenix Pinnacle
On3 Consensus grade: 95.80
On3 NIL Valuation: $16.9K
On3 RPM: USC 34.8%, Clemson 23.1%, Georgia 13.2%, Alabama 13.0%, Oklahoma 6.8%, Arizona State 2.4%, Notre Dame 2.4%, Washington 2.4%
The Skinny: On3’s Chad Simmons caught up with Robinson this week, and the tight end said he doesn’t plan on making a decision until the fall. But he did name a few schools that are currently sticking out to him.

18. DL Matayo Uiagalelei
School: Bellflower (Calif.) St. John Bosco
On3 Consensus grade: 95.80
On3 NIL Valuation: $32K
On3 RPM: USC 47.7%, Oregon 37.7%, Clemson 14.9%, LSU 1.0%, Texas 1.0%
The Skinny: While the West Coast powers are leading in his recruitment, it doesn’t mean other schools are out of the race. His father Dave Uiagalelei tweeted Friday that the Tigers, where Matayo’s older brother D.J. plays, have a “legitimate shot” to land Matayo.

19. S Tony Mitchell
School: Alabaster (Ala.) Thompson
On3 Consensus grade: 95.72
On3 NIL Valuation: $31K
On3 RPM: Alabama 97.9%
The Skinny: Mitchell has known Nick Saban since middle school, and the they have formed bond appears to be too strong for another team to come in and swipe the safety’s commitment.

Committed 5-star recruits in the On3 Consensus

2. QB Malachi Nelson
Five-Star Plus+
School: Los Alamitos (Calif.)
On3 Consensus grade: 98.050
On3 NIL Valuation: $99K
Status: Committed to USC

7. EDGE Keon Keeley
School: Tampa Berkeley Prep
On3 Consensus grade: 96.80
On3 NIL Valuation: $23K
Status: Committed to Notre Dame

12. WR Zachariah Branch
School: Las Vegas Bishop Gorman
On3 Consensus grade: 96.47
On3 NIL Valuation: $48K
Status: Committed to USC

20. CB Jahlil Hurley
School: Florence (Ala.)
On3 Consensus grade: 95.72
On3 NIL Valuation: $26K
Status: Committed to Alabama