College Football Playoff Predictions: Where to put Ohio State after a clunker against Nebraska

Ohio State had an open date last week that afforded the Buckeyes a chance to watch all of Nebraska’s weaknesses laid bare by Indiana, so I couldn’t help but wonder why a 21-17 nail-biter Saturday was the best Ohio State could muster? It shouldn’t have been nearly as difficult as the Buckeyes made it look. The entire sloppy affair prompted two questions:

1. Am I sure Ohio State is a national title contender?

2. Should I leave Ohio State out of the bracket in this week’s Bracketology column?

As for question one, I’m not sure. I suspect Ohio State has the roster to compete for a national title, but I’m also the person who has repeatedly said that in the NIL/transfer portal era, no team is deep enough to survive being snakebit at one particular position. That position for Ohio State seems to be left tackle. The Buckeyes lost starter Josh Simmons for the season to injury against Oregon two weeks earlier. On Saturday, Simmons’ replacement Zen Michalski had to leave the Nebraska game with an injury. Left guard Donovan Jackson then moved to tackle, and sophomore Luke Montgomery replaced Jackson at guard.

If the Buckeyes struggle to block Penn State later this week the way they struggled to block Nebraska on Saturday, then they’ll probably lose. That would put them in win-or-else mode to even make the College Football Playoff.

But they’re not in that situation yet — and despite the struggles Ohio State did win its clunker. That’s why I didn’t punt Ohio State from the bracket entirely. I did, however, drop the Buckeyes below Indiana. They can obviously work their way back up by winning in State College and then by beating the Hoosiers on Nov. 23, but we’re going to need to see the evidence on the field.

Meanwhile, Texas A&M enters the bracket after beating LSU. The Aggies are behind Notre Dame, which beat Texas A&M in College Station in week one and which dominated previously undefeated Navy on Saturday. To make room for Texas A&M, I had to drop Tennessee into the first four out. But fear not, Volunteers. There will be plenty of chances to play your way back in.

Especially if someone else plays their way out next week.

The Top Four Seeds

Remember, these four slots are reserved only for conference champions. So don’t freak out if you see an ACC team at No. 3 and a Big 12 team at No. 4. If there are Big Ten and SEC teams at No. 1 and No. 2, then the rules don’t allow for another team from either of those leagues until No. 5. The top four get a bye in the first round and open play in the quarterfinals in a bowl game.

1. Oregon (Big Ten champ)
The Ducks hammered a solid, well-coached Illinois team on Saturday. The Illini never stood a chance, and that’s exactly how a national title contender should handle a visit from a fringe top-25 opponent. Now Oregon goes to Michigan, where the Wolverines will be looking for a season-saving upset.

2. Georgia (SEC champ)
The Bulldogs return to action Saturday in Jacksonville against Florida. Their move to No. 2 this week is more a compliment to the Ducks than a complaint about the Bulldogs. They have plenty of chances to reclaim that spot.

3. Clemson (ACC champ)
The Tigers enjoyed their second open week, and hopefully, they rested. Because their road gets considerably tougher in the next few weeks than it has been since the Georgia loss. They face Louisville at home this week and then must play at Virginia Tech and (currently undefeated) Pittsburgh in consecutive weeks. 

4. BYU (Big 12 champ)
The Cougars went to Orlando and thumped UCF 37-24 on Saturday. They have the easiest remaining path of the Big 12 title contenders, but their next game — Nov. 9 at Utah — is a renewal of one of the nation’s most bitter rivalries. The Utes are having an awful year, but nothing would make them happier than ruining the Cougars’ season. So BYU must be careful. 

The At-Larges

These teams didn’t win their conference, but they’re in the tournament. They can come from anywhere. Seeds No. 5-8 host first-round games on campus. Teams seeded No. 9-12 go on the road.

5. Texas
The Longhorns survived at Vanderbilt, but they didn’t inspire a ton of confidence in a 27-24 win. They’re off next week and then host Florida on Nov. 9.

6. Miami
The Hurricanes took care of business against Florida State. Of all the undefeated teams remaining, Miami has the easiest path to 12-0.

7. Penn State
Quarterback Drew Allar left the Wisconsin game shortly before halftime and tested his injured leg during halftime but couldn’t return. Backup Beau Pribula entered and completed 11 of 13 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown. Primula’s mobility also added a dimension to Penn State’s offense. We don’t yet know who will play quarterback for the Nittany Lions against Ohio State, and that question could dominate the week.

8. Indiana
Beating Washington on Saturday wasn’t as easy as beating Nebraska last week, but the Hoosiers still made it look as if they had it under control most of the way. That they did that behind backup QB Tayven Jackson was more impressive.

9. Ohio State
As promised, the Buckeyes are still in the bracket. But they’ll need to win at Penn State to stay in it.

10. Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish annihilated  previously undefeated Navy by forcing turnovers and then almost immediately turning them into points. Quarterback Riley Leonard looks more comfortable and confident running the offense with each passing week, and the next team on the list is helping Notre Dame’s resume more every week.

11. Texas A&M
The Aggies looked lost against LSU before coach Mike Elko decided to replace QB Conner Weigman with Marcel Reed, who had won three games as Texas A&M’s starter earlier this season as Weigman recovered from an injury. With Reed piloting the offense, the Aggies looked like a playoff team. And they probably can be one by winning three of their next four games.

First (Power) Four Out: Tennessee, Iowa State,  Alabama, Pittsburgh

Group of Five representative

The rules don’t limit how many Group of 5 teams can make the tournament, but common sense suggests that most years only the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion will make the bracket, and it will make it as the No. 12 seed because it will be ranked lower than 12.

12. Boise State
Broncos tailback Ashton Jeanty played his worst statistical game at UNLV, but the fact that the junior ran for 128 yards and a touchdown in his “worst” game only helps explain how great Jeanty is. More important, Boise State won and took control of the Mountain West title race. It’s entirely possible the Broncos see the Rebels again in December. But then it would be on the blue turf with a conference title and possibly a CFP berth on the line.

Group of 5 Contenders: Army, UNLV, Navy, Tulane, Louisiana

The Projected Bracket

No. 9 Ohio State at No. 8 Indiana
Winner faces No. 1 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Texas
Winner faces No. 4 BYU in the Fiesta Bowl

No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Penn State
Winner faces No. 2 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl

No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Miami
Winner faces No. 3 Clemson in the Peach Bowl

Remaining Bubble Teams

The best way to illustrate this group is to split it into two subsets: Potential at-larges and potential win-and-in conference champs. It should go without saying that a potential at-large also is a potential conference champ. In the Big Ten and the SEC, it’s likely both teams that make the conference title game will make the CFP. That isn’t a guarantee in the ACC and Big 12, and it’s possible one or two teams that make those games will only have a puncher’s chance that requires them to win the league to make the tournament.

Potential At-Larges

ACC: Pittsburgh, SMU
Big Ten: Illinois
Big 12: Iowa State, Kansas State
SEC: LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee

Potential Win-And-In Conference Champs: 

ACC: Duke, Syracuse, Virginia Tech
Big Ten: None
Big 12: Colorado

SEC: None

Group of Five Bubble teams

Teams that can win their Group of 5 league have a chance to be the highest-ranked Group of 5 champ.

American Athletic Conference: Army, Navy, Tulane, Memphis
Conference USA: None
MAC: None
Mountain West: UNLV
Sun Belt: Louisiana