Which college football program has it the worst right now — and in the future?

A viewer asked a really interesting question during our postgame show Saturday night, so I decided the next morning to present that question as a poll on social media. 

The responses were surprising in several ways. 

Great question from a viewer last night as @AriWasserman and I were discussing yesterday’s games.

Which situation feels the most dire right now?

— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) October 20, 2024

I certainly didn’t expect Oklahoma to win by that wide a margin, but the other surprising responses were the write-in candidates. Florida State and Michigan fans wrote me asking why their teams hadn’t also been included. This, from a Seminoles fan, made iced tea come out my nose.

We’re getting left out again

— Gibbons away from his desk (@kamensk22) October 20, 2024

The entire exercise got me thinking: Which program is the Reverse Harbaugh at the moment?

What’s a Reverse Harbaugh? It’s a program that makes the fanbase say this: Who’s got it worse than us? Nooooooooo-body!

Those five — the three from the original question and the two write-ins — certainly are the correct candidates. But the answer is complicated. Some are in worse short-term shape and some are in worse long-term shape. One problem means immediate, intense pain over the next two months. The other problem means years of anguish. So let’s award two Reverse Harbaughs, one for the short-term and one for the long-term, by ranking the teams in each of the two categories.

Short Term

This one will feel terrible now, but some problems that aren’t correctable in-season can be dealt with fairly quickly once the coaching carousel spins and the transfer portal opens. So this probably is the less serious of the two Reverse Harbaughs, even if it feels the worst at the moment.

5. USC
The Trojans are 1-4 in Big Ten play, and that’s awful. But they’ve lost those four games by a total of 14 points. Eleven days ago, they led undefeated Penn State by 14 and ultimately fell in overtime. This suggests that the Trojans are a few plays away from the results they actually want. Cleaning up some issues could allow for a much better end to the season.

4. Auburn
Like USC, Auburn isn’t that far from actually winning games. The Tigers were in control against Oklahoma before a Payton Thorne pick-six gave the Sooners the lead. The Tigers were in control at Missouri last week, but they couldn’t make enough first downs to salt away the win — which allowed Missouri QB Brady Cook to drive his team down the field for the go-ahead score.

The chances of Auburn going 3-0 in its next three games (at Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Louisiana-Monroe) are much better than the chances of the Tigers going 0-3. But 0-3 is a non-zero probability, especially with former New Mexico State QB Diego Pavia leading Vandy into Jordan-Hare Stadium next week and coach Bryant Vincent working miracles at 6-1 ULM.

3. Michigan
The Wolverines won two games with QB Alex Orji running — note that keyword — an offense that could do nothing through the air but was very effective on the ground. First-year coach Sherrone Moore decided to bench Orji in favor of Jack Tuttle, who throws a little better but not so much better that it negates the damage to Michigan’s run game. Michigan is 0-2 since that decision was made.

The Wolverines, who have an excellent defense, probably were better when they had a more defined offensive identity. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem likely either QB is going to lead the Wolverines to wins against Oregon, Indiana or Ohio State.

2. Florida State
The Seminoles would be No. 1, but Oklahoma’s remaining schedule is even more difficult. Florida State ranks No. 133 in the nation in touchdowns with 11. (By comparison, Saturday’s opponent, Miami, ranks No. 2 with 44 in the same number of games.) The defense ranks in the bottom of the middle in yards per play allowed, but it almost doesn’t matter because the offense is so ineffective.

Asking for wins against Miami or Notre Dame is probably too much. The Seminoles might be able to beat North Carolina and Charleston Southern. Then they’ll face a Florida team that — unfortunately for Florida State — seems to be improving.

1. Oklahoma
The Sooners’ top five receivers have been injured. That’s bad, but it’s also out of their control. The Sooners also can’t block. That is the coaching staff’s fault due to recruiting, development and schematic failures. That’s worse, and because of this nightmare on offense, Oklahoma is wasting its best defense in more than a decade.

The Sooners still have to play Ole Miss, Missouri, Alabama and LSU, and all those teams feast on teams that can’t block. Coach Brent Venables has fired offensive coordinator Seth Littrell, but that might not make much difference. Joe Jon Finley, the man responsible for a tight end room that shoulders some of the “can’t block” blame, is the new playcaller. 

This could potentially get much worse before it gets better.

But short-term concerns can be corrected once the season ends. Let’s see which teams have it the worst in the long term.

The Long Term

5. Michigan
This is truly year zero for Moore, who was dealt a bad hand thanks to the timing of Jim Harbaugh’s departure from Michigan to the NFL. The Wolverines had no way to fix their QB room through the portal, and that would have changed everything this season.

Moore will have the chance to construct the roster as he sees fit this offseason. If he chooses wisely at QB, Michigan should get better quickly.

4. Oklahoma
I wrote last week about how Oklahoma’s offensive line recruiting strategy in the 2021 and 2022 recruiting classes is biting the Sooners in the butt now. But that strategy was corrected, and the 2024 and 2025 classes should be helpful fixing the blocking issues. 

Venables will have to hire well on the offensive side of the ball and decide whether he’s riding with one of the two QBs who has played for Oklahoma this season (Jackson Arnold or Michael Hawkins Jr.) or grabbing a QB from the portal. But he’s not getting fired thanks to a completely unnecessary extension given to him last offseason. (Oklahoma put itself on the hook for more money down the line even though no one was trying to hire Venables.) Venables ultimately runs the defense, and that side of the ball has improved every year since he arrived. If he gets OC and QB correct, Oklahoma can be much better next year.

3. USC
This one is tricky because the same reason I gave for USC being potentially better in the short term is a cause for concern if it keeps up.

Remember that the Trojans have lost four Big Ten games by a combined 14 points. Their cumulative score in Big Ten games this season is 137-134. Yes, they’ve actually scored more than their Big Ten opponents thanks to their win against Wisconsin. But if that keeps up, it’ll look exactly like Scott Frost’s 2021 season at Nebraska. That year, the Cornhuskers had a cumulative Big Ten score of 239-239 but finished 1-8 in conference play because they couldn’t stop losing one-score games. That fatal flaw ultimately cost Frost his job the next season.

Lincoln Riley is working without a Heisman winner or finalist as QB1 for the first time as a head coach, but his Achilles heel — the defense — seems at times to be improved. So is he just a QB away from figuring it out? Maybe. The better solution is still to develop better players on both lines of scrimmage — something Riley has yet to prove he can do as a head coach.

The other question is whether he can keep this recruiting class together. The Trojans’ class of 2025 currently ranks No. 9 in the On3 Industry composite, but more losses may bring out the vultures.

2. Auburn
Auburn’s 2025 recruiting class also is its saving grace. Coach Hugh Freeze just flipped QB Deuce Knight from Notre Dame, and the entire class currently ranks No. 5 in the nation. As long as the Tigers can eek out some SEC wins, it has a chance of holding. If they can’t, watch out for the scavengers.

The more disturbing issue is that Freeze doesn’t seem to have the same on-field mojo that he had when he coached at Ole Miss. While the roster wasn’t great when he got to Auburn, he’s recruited well enough in the portal and out of high school to put together a group that should have a much better record than it does. He did a lot more with a lot less in his first time around in the SEC, and his inability so far to get this team over the hump is troubling. 

Perhaps Auburn is just a top-five recruiting class away from rocketing back to the top of the SEC. But lots of SEC teams sign good recruiting classes. It’s up to the coach to guide that talent to wins on the field. Freeze used to be pretty good at that, but he hasn’t been since his arrival on the Plains.

1. Florida State
Mike Norvell’s success in the transfer portal was always supposed to be a bridge to a more sustainable brand of roster-building that leaned more heavily on high school recruiting.

But even Florida State’s 13-0 regular season last year hasn’t allowed the Seminoles to crack the top 10 in the recruiting rankings. The class of 2025 currently ranks No. 18. Even in the NIL/unlimited transfer era, this is no way to build a program that is supposed to make the College Football Playoff and compete for national championships.

Norvell isn’t going anywhere. When the Alabama job was open, Florida State made him a very rich man and guaranteed him so much money that a change is out of the question. He’s probably going to have to revamp his staff and try again next year. But that’s also probably going to be with a team that relies heavily on the transfer portal.