Why Big 12 matchups will be ‘appointment television’ at end of season

On3’s Andy Staples welcomed Max Olson of The Athletic on the Andy Staples On3 Podcasts, where the duo would discuss some of the latest stories in college football today.

One topic that was addressed is the expansion of the College Football Playoff field from four to 12 teams. With the expansion of the playoff field, each of the Power 5 conferences will be represented by their conference champion, with the top four earning the top four seeds.

Outside of those top four seeds, the same conference could make the field of 12. But what is the likelihood that the Big 12 gets multiple teams into the College Football Playoff? And what will the record of the conference’s top team look like?

“I know people get mad at the deliberate mis-seeding, the fact that you have to be a conference champ to be a top-four seed,” said Staples. “But I’m telling you, especially in the Big 12, I was looking at some of those Big 12 matchups as the season goes on, and that’s going to be appointment television. Because I don’t think we’re gonna have any idea who’s going to win the Big 12. Whether it’s a two-loss, it could be an undefeated team, I think it’s more likely that you see a couple of 10-2 teams playing in the conference title game, and the winner’s in and the loser’s out.”

Given the expansion of the College Football Playoff field, teams that suffer a loss or two early in the season still have an opportunity to be part of the field of 12 by winning their conference championship. This simple change means that late-season matchups will likely now have higher stakes, thus making them must-watch TV, according to Staples.

Olson agrees with Staples that the Big 12 in 2024 will be a game of pick-up. However, he also cautions that the conference could see more than one representative in this year’s College Football Playoff by way of a team that surprises the college football world, just as TCU did a few years back.

“I think so,” Olson said. “This is obviously on our list of things we’re excited to watch; you go through Colorado‘s schedule for ‘24, and they’ve got one of the toughest Big 12 schedules this year. They have all of the teams that made your post-spring top-25; they’re all on their schedule. In addition to going and playing road games at UCF, Texas Tech, [and] playing against Kansas in Arrowhead. There’s eight different Colorado games where you’re like, ‘Oh, I can’t really miss that one.’

“I just think that’s how the Big 12 race is going to be. A couple of these will emerge. But I agree with you. I don’t think there’s undefeated team. But, at the same time, I didn’t see TCU coming in 2022 either; so maybe there will be a playoff team or two that we are just completely sleeping on.”

To even further highlight Olson’s point, TCU finished the year as one of the top four teams in the country and punched their ticket to the College Football Playoff despite losing the conference championship game to Kansas State. If the 12-team format been around during the 2022 season, both the Horned Frogs and Wildcats would have earned spots in the playoff.

Both Staples and Olson agree that the Big 12 is up for grabs in 2024. With the additions of Colorado, Utah, Arizona, and Arizona State, along with last year’s new additions, BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston, who knows how things can turn out in the conference? And with all that uncertainty, it will undoubtedly make Big 12 games a hot ticket at the end of the season.