Why saying James Franklin 'can't win the big one' could play into Penn State's favor this year

LAS VEGAS — James Franklin can’t win the big one.

You hear that a lot, right? Whenever anyone tries to begin a summer discussion about Penn State heading into the 2025 season, they are immediately met by critics who point out Franklin’s 1-18 record against Associated Press Top-5 teams.

There is no shying away from Franklin’s “inability” to beat the Ohio States of the world. But you know who else was once in Franklin’s position? Georgia’s Kirby Smart, Clemson’s Dabo Swinney, Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh and, most recently, Ohio State’s Ryan Day.

What do all of those coaches have in common? They’re national champions now.

Could there be a new first-time national champion in January? Could it be Penn State?

When Franklin was asked about the pressure he faces heading into the season at Big Ten Media Days last week, he didn’t shy away.

“There’s a ton of conversations that are happening nationally and we embrace that,” Franklin said. “We’ve earned that based on what we’ve been able to do and what we’ve got coming back. There’s a lot of people that are excited on a national level talking about us.

“These are always the expectations at Penn State. A lot of people would consider (our season) a really good season last year. We were a game away from playing for the National Championship, and you could actually make the argument a drive away from playing for the National Championship. But it didn’t feel that way, right? Because the expectations at Penn State are really high.”

Franklin has been doing this for longer than some of his counterparts, so some will try to make the case that his time has passed. But that would be a bad-faith argument, especially considering what Penn State brings back this year.

Also, we’re no longer in the era of the super team. Penn State isn’t going to be facing an Ohio State team like the one it played a year ago. In reality, this is the first time during Franklin’s tenure you could say — with a straight face — that Penn State is perhaps the most talented and well-rounded team in the country.

There’s also this expectation that winning a national title is supposed to happen quickly. Former Alabama head coach Nick Saban, and to some extent Smart, have tricked us into thinking winning it all is a regular occurrence for the top coaches. It’s not.

People don’t stop to think about this, but Ohio State, despite being a megateam for the past 10 years, won its first national title in a decade. It takes time. It takes knocking on the door repeatedly before finally breaking through.

Who has been knocking on the door more than Penn State?

Saying Franklin “can’t win the big one” is a fact. There are statistics to prove it. But Penn State has played in a lot of “big ones,” which is a testament to the consistency of the program. How many of those “big ones” was Penn State the favorite? How many were they supposed to win? Now the sport has changed and Penn State actually has a squad that is prepared to win those big games.

Think about it rationally. For the bulk of Franklin’s tenure, Penn State was in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan and even those very good Mark Dantonio-coached Michigan State teams. In the previous system, Penn State had to win the Big Ten to play for a national title. Winning the Big Ten when Urban Meyer and Harbaugh are in your division isn’t an easy accomplishment.

For so many years, Franklin has been judged against two of the best coaches of the most recent generation. At Penn State, you can make the argument that being as good or better than those is the expectation, but is that fair?

Yes, Franklin’s record has been putrid against AP Top-5 teams. But in how many of those games did Penn State have equitable talent? How many was Penn State supposed to win?

That’s changed now. Penn State could conceivably be a postseason favorite against anyone in the sport this season. Yes, Penn State is deeper and more well-rounded than it’s ever been under Franklin. He also doesn’t have to play superteams anymore.

If you’re a Penn State fan, you should be licking your chops about this season. You should be hoping for a national title. No, you should be expecting one. Why? Because this is as good of a window for your Nittany Lions as you’ve ever had. That’s real.

Penn State has a quarterback in Drew Allar, who may be a top-5 pick in the NFL Draft next year. The Nittany Lions also have the best running back duo in the country in Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, along with one of the best edge rushers in Dani Dennis-Sutton. Oh, and Penn State addressed its receiver problem by picking up Kyron Hudson (USC), Devonte Ross (Troy) and, most recently, Trebor Pena (Syracuse) in the portal. Why shouldn’t Penn State be No. 1 heading into the season?

Now Franklin has to go out and prove it.

“Let’s also be honest. It’s a great conversation, but who really cares about preseason rankings?” He asked. “They mean nothing. It’s a good argument to have and everybody has fun with it, but the only rankings that matter are the ones that happen at the end of the season, and that’s what we’re concerned about. The only way we’ll do that is by handling our business today.”

Franklin can’t win the big one.

Nothing happens for the first time until it happens.