Why Sherrone Moore, Michigan probably didn't do quite enough in the transfer portal to repeat as national champions in 2024

Michigan checked in at No. 12 in ESPN’s 2024 FPI ratings released last week, behind the likes of Texas (No. 3), Ohio State (No. 4) and Oregon (No. 2) who are all on the Wolverines’ 2024 schedule. 

Rarely do the reigning national champions face such a crossroads as a program, but with Jim Harbaugh now off to the NFL, first-year head coach Sherrone Moore is responsible for engineering a seamless transition into a new era — one in which the Maize & Blue expect to continue to win Big Ten championships and play for national titles. 

Is that truly possible this fall, though?

Why Michigan probably didn’t do quite enough in the portal

The dust has totally settled on the 2024 transfer portal, and even at the conclusion of the spring window, I quickly declared the Wolverines a winner mostly because of what didn’t happen to their roster. 

They avoided mass chaos and a rush of transfers, hanging onto the likes of star corner Will Johnson, defensive tackles Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, and a host of quality depth pieces. 

That triumvirate, along with tight end Colston Loveland, tailback Donovan Edwards and linebacker Ernest Hausmann are foundational pieces for Michigan next season. They were the players the program could ill afford to lose after sending 18 guys to the NFL Combine and seeing 13 players get drafted. And they didn’t. 

While safeties Keon Sabb and DJ Waller were notable losses, overall, Moore deserves credit for keeping most of the post-Harbaugh roster in tact.

And yet, because Michigan did not capitalize on the recruiting trail during its recent run of Big Ten titles (in Harbaugh’s final two cycles they inked the 15th and 18th classes nationally — with zero Top-100 signees), it was critical for Sherrone Moore to supplement the depth chart with fresh faces along the offensive line, secondary and possibly a quarterback and receiver. 

I implored Moore to “pound the portal” in a column before spring practice, and a little more than three months later, it would be an overstatement to declare that the Wolverines were overly aggressive in the transfer market.

During the second window, they added six newcomers — one of whom was a boomerang portal addition in former UM corner-turned-wideout Amorion Walker. The marquee additions were four defensive backs — Michigan State safety Jaden Mangham, Tennessee safety Wesley Walker, UNLV safety Ricky Johnson and FCS All-American corner Aamir Hall. They swung and missed on a couple of interior offensive and defensive linemen, and they seem totally content entering the fall with a one of the only quarterback competitions among College Football Playoff hopefuls — letting Alex Orji, senior walk-on Davis Warren and seventh-year senior Jack Tuttle battle it out for QB1 in training camp.

They didn’t land a proven playmaker at receiver, and after losing their top six offensive linemen from last season, not adding a single big ugly to the two-deep is hardly ideal. 

Defensively, Michigan badly needed help in the secondary. With Rod Moore tearing his ACL in spring practice and Mike Sainristil and Josh Wallace now in the NFL, the Wolverines were down three cornerstone pieces off last season’s No. 2 overall pass defense. 

On the aggregate, Michigan landed some decent depth to replenish a depleted unit, but the upside of these additions are much more uncertain.

What does that mean for 2024? Well, the potential (and likely) drop-off could be the difference between Michigan having one of the best pass defenses in the nation, to simply being a Top 25 unit that gets sliced and diced against pass-heavy teams like Texas and Oregon on this year’s schedule. 

No one in the portal was going to replace Rod Moore’s experience, knowledge and leadership — not from a guy new DC Wink Martindale compared to former All-Pro NFL safety Eric Weddle — but it was notable that Michigan opted to bring in Walker from Louisville. The versatile defensive back has three seasons of starting experience at Georgia Tech and Tennessee, but he’s a rather low-ceiling starter and his path to Ann Arbor was quite circuitous. In the age of no rules, Walker is a true vagabond transfer, leaving Tennessee for Ole Miss before flipping to Louisville, participating in spring practice and then transferring again to Michigan. Perhaps they see a specific skill set there that wasn’t tapped into previously. 

Walker will battle with ex-Spartans safety Mangham, who did have four interceptions last season but also was a key starter on one of the worst pass defenses in the nation in 2023. 

The most interesting pickup Michigan made was Hall, as Sherrone Moore seems to be banking on the program’s ability to identify and mine under-recruited talents into NFL Draft picks. They did it with former UCONN defensive back Josh Wallace last season, and similarly, Hall is making a major jump from Albany to the Big Ten. He did record 15 PBUs and five picks last season, and considering he’ll play opposite of an All-American in Will Johnson, he could be a real valuable starter. 

Michigan’s defense should still be really, really good in 2024, and they should be able to lean on that unit for the majority of their games.  

But much like LSU’s offense without Jayden Daniels and two 1st Round receivers, there’s going to be some natural regression — even with some star-power returnees — and that could be the difference in the margins against a tougher schedule this fall.

Before the spring portal window, Michigan ranked 128th nationally in returning production — including 132nd offensively. The Wolverines enter the fall 126th in returning production, with zero movement offensively.

Considering the complete shrug emoji that is the team’s QB battle, coupled with some good but hardly eye-popping transfer additions, it’s hard to see the 2024 Wolverines beating the likes of Oregon or Ohio State this fall without some real luck. And if they can’t do that, then making a deep run in a 12-team CFP field seems even more unlikely.