Why the first quarter, opening pace is big for Michigan, Washington in College Football Playoff championship game
The national championship between Michigan and Washington may very well be decided by the matchup between the Huskies offense and Wolverines defense. Michael Penix Jr. leads the nation’s No. 1 passing attack with a trio of dangerous wideouts, while the Wolverines rank No. 2 in the country against the pass.
Something’s got to give when the two teams clash Monday at NRG Stadium, and On3‘s Andy Staples and J.D. PicKell were on location Sunday evening to break down the matchup. PicKell began the discussion by stressing the importance for Washington to get into a rhythm early.
“That first quarter is massive for Washington,” he said. “The path to victory for Washington feels more narrow than Michigan, and the path to victory starts in that first quarter putting pressure on Michigan to match them with scores. Because Washington, we know they’re a Ferrari offensively. They’ll score north of 40 if they’re allowed to kind of get some rhythm going. So if they can establish that early — massive.
“If they’re able to go into that fourth quarter with a one score lead and they get the ball back, they get to go bully mode.”
Similarly, Michigan’s offense will want to get off to a quick start as well. The Wolverines aren’t as explosive through the air as Washington is, but they do rank fifth in the country with 238.9 rushing yards per game. Running back Blake Corum leads the FBS with 25 touchdowns on the ground.
For that reason, Staples believes the battle up front between the Wolverines offensive line and Huskies defensive line will play a major factor early as well.
“I think Washington has to jump on them because the bully mode could start earlier if they don’t,” he said. “Bully mode might actually be a quick way to score for Michigan. You assume that just because a team dominates on the ground, they’re gonna have these 15-play, eight-minute drives. That may not be the case if Michigan’s offensive starts humming. They can score in 3-4 minutes. It will not be the aerial show that Washington’s offense is, but they can rip off some chunks when they get the ground game going too.
“I’m not sure about what Washington’s defensive line is. Can they hold up against Michigan’s offensive line? I’m not as worried about Washington’s offensive line against Michigan’s D-line.”
Penix has put up video game-like numbers this season to lead the country with 4,648 yards passing, 35 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He has two receivers who have surpassed the 1,000-yard mark this season in Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk.
The Huskies offensive line has provided elite protection for Penix to find his receivers this season, giving up only 0.8 sacks per game. Staples went on to explain a way Michigan’s defense has disrupt that and put pressure on the quarterback to hopefully force a few mistakes.
“If you’re Michigan, I think the way you handle it is simulated pressure,” he said. “What that is for those who don’t know, you make the quarterback think and paint a picture that there’s five or six guys coming. There’s only four guys coming, but you’re not sure which four. That’s the tricky part. That’s what you’ve got to use to get him thinking he’s about to get hit so he goes to look for that guy who he knows is open, but he’s not going to be open because there’s only four guys coming.”
PicKell pointed to defensive lineman Mason Graham, who had a big game in the semifinal win against Alabama, as someone who could play a factor in those plans.
“We saw what he did in the Alabama game,” PicKell said. “He’s not a guy where he has to be hitting the quarterback. If he’s occupying another offensive lineman or he’s kind of mixing up the pinch on somebody. There’s real agility on that dude, too. That’s gonna be a guy to watch. Keep a guy on 55 all game long.”
Ultimately, Staples sees it being difficult for the Michigan defense to shake up Washington’s offensive line, which has multiple years of experience together. It’s such an efficient group that it may ultimately come down to how well the secondary can cover weapons such as Odunze, Polk and Jalen McMillan.
Michigan is forcing 1.1 interceptions so far this season, but will certainly be put to the test against these talented wideouts.
“If you’re doing the simulated pressure, you have to communicate as an offensive line,” Staples said. “You’ve gotta be able to pass guys off. It’s almost like playing basketball and switching on a pick. You’ve gotta be able to do that and communicate effectively. You saw Alabama not communicate effectively against Michigan. I don’t think that’s gonna be a problem for Washington. I don’t recall any point in this season where it looked like they got really confused by any defensive front and just let free runners come through.
“So I think that’s a part where Penix is maybe gonna have a little bit of time to throw and it’s gonna be on Will Johnson and Mikey Sainristil and that Michigan secondary to cover.”
Ultimately, it may take some in-game adjustments to fully get the strategy out. Michigan has typically played zone this season but might need to go into more man to keep up with Washington’s athletes.
“I’m really interested to see the approach Michigan takes on the back end,” PicKell said. “I think PFF has a number out there where Michigan, somewhere north of 70% of the snaps they’re playing zone. I don’t know if I love Michigan sitting in zone against the Monstars of that wide receiver corps. If they just spread them out that wide, that’s a long way to stretch your zone.”
Either way, it’s a matchup that brings plenty of hype in what will be the biggest game all season long. We’ll see who can get off to the better start when the game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET on Monday in Houston.