Will Mississippi State give Mike Leach a contract extension this offseason?

Late last week, Sam Pittman inked a well-deserved contract extension with Arkansas, keeping Mr. Yessss Sirrrrr in Fayetteville for the foreseeable future. Likewise, Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin signed a contract extension earlier this offseason after the Rebels’ historic 2021 year.

But what about another 2020 SEC West hire facing a pivotal Year 3? Is Mississippi State ready to commit to Mike Leach long-term?

The Bulldogs’ idiosyncratic head coach is 11-13 in two seasons in Starkville with a contract that runs through Dec. 31, 2023. Mississippi state laws limit contracts to just four years, so as of now, Leach is set to enter the fall with just two seasons remaining on a deal that runs $5 million annually.

That’s as close to lame-duck status as you’ll find for most Power 5 programs. Recruiting to Mississippi State is already difficult enough, but Leach’s current contract situation makes it next to impossible to convince high-level high school talent to sign with the Bulldogs without any real assurances of the future of the program. Relatedly, MSU has just four 2023 commits currently and their recruiting has regressed each cycle since Leach took over. 

According to The Clarion Ledger, Leach is negotiating a potential extension with Mississippi State. How serious or far along those conversations are is unknown. 

“Everything is moving down the road pretty productively,” Leach said at the SEC spring meetings last week.  Athletics director John Cohen told the Clarion Ledger, “They’re still working through the process.”

Well, time’s a ticking, and the closer we get to the 2022 season without a new deal means Leach’s long-term prospects with the Bulldogs become an even bigger storyline. 

Mississippi State was already one of the more interesting teams in the SEC entering 2022, but with a mouthy Mike Leach and no new contract? Woo boy. 

Thus far, Leach has been as advertised at Mississippi State. Solidly unspectacular. Slowly building toward that breakthrough season. 

Will it happen in 2022?

The Bulldogs were 7-6 a year ago — and that included a 1-3 record in one-score games due to abysmal special teams. They beat Texas A&M, Kentucky and Auburn, but also no-showed against Texas Tech in the Liberty Bowl and lost to Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl for the second-straight year.

Still, there’s optimism that they’ll be more than just a feisty .500 team this fall.

While the schedule is gross (SEC West + Georgia and Kentucky + non-conference games against Memphis and Arizona), Leach has an old, veteran squad (tops in the SEC in returning production per ESPN’s Bill Connelly), and at previous stops, that meant a banner season. 

After leading the nation in completion percentage, Will Rogers is back at quarterback for his third year in Leach’s offense. Mike Leach has had a third-year starter at quarterback just three times in his head-coaching career (Kliff Kingsbury, Graham Harrell and Luke Falk) and he won at least nine games all three seasons. Zach Arnett’s defense is one of the more underrated units in the league, so if everything comes together, the Bulldogs could make some noise in the division this season. 

So perhaps there’s impetus to get a deal done as soon as possible before the fall — particularly if Cohen is confident Leach will level up the Bulldogs in Year 3. 

But what about the other side of the coin?

Say no extension takes place this summer, that means by the end of the 2022 season, it would only cost Mississippi State $5 million to buy out Leach and find a new head coach. Even if a one-year extension happens, a $10 million buyout isn’t outrageous these days. 

Now, I do not think Cohen wants to move on from Leach, but what happens if the Bulldogs crater instead of cycling up this fall? It’s certainly possible considering they’re set to face seven preseason Top 25 teams. And again, recruiting is going in the wrong direction. There’s also the X-factor of a certain former Mississippi State head coach who is unemployed and currently spending a lot of family time at the beach and golf courses. I have no idea if Cohen has any interest in bringing the prodigal son back to Starkville, but it would be silly if Dan Mullen hadn’t at least crossed his mind. 

So what happens if Leach doesn’t receive an extension before the season? On the one hand, he could leverage himself into a major money deal if MSU has a big 2022 season. But The Pirate could just as well be walking the plank if State stumbles and Cohen wants to look elsewhere for a head coach. Either way, the entire saga makes it a fascinating storyline to monitor.