Winners and losers: UCLA faces a foggy future amid the conference realignment

In the aftermath of Friday’s bombshell realignment movement, there’s been all sorts of “winners” and “losers” columns written by various media outlets. 

Most of the designations made sense (Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, Utah: winners, George Kliavfoff: loser, etc.), but one school changing conferences in 2024 is rarely mentioned in either category: UCLA, and the Bruins face a foggy future amid all the movement across college football in the last 18 months. 

On the one hand, UCLA certainly isn’t a loser in the conference realignment movement because it has a prime seat the table, unlike rivals Cal and Stanford, plus it will receive a full-revenue share in the move to the Big Ten along with USC, unlike Oregon and Washington. 

“I’m fired up for the Big Eighteen,” head coach Chip Kelly said earlier this week. 

“But that’s in a year, so really you understand what it is and it’s another thing down the road.”

The tough road to hoe for UCLA in the future “Big Ten”

That “road” now looks like a real uphill climb. With the conference realignment snow globe done shaking for now, you’d be squinting pretty hard to consider the Bruins a winner in any of this. 

Although a proud and storied program, they weren’t exactly a heavy-hitter in the Pac-12, and now they face a future that is much closer to resembling Michigan State, Maryland or Illinois than that of USC, Washington or Penn State, etc. 

Oregon, which is recruiting better than any school on the West Coast, can conceivably win the Big Ten sometime in the near future. Obviously, same for USC. I’m skeptical that Washington can, but Karen DeBoer did just win 11 games in Year 1 and will have an offense that will always be tough to stop. 

UCLA?

This upcoming season might be the Bruins’ final chance to win 10 games for the foreseeable future. UCLA has just six 10-win seasons in my lifetime (35 years), the last one coming in 2014. 

The move to the Big Ten was always going to be challenging, but it got even harder with Oregon and Washington making the move, too. UCLA will always be the fourth stepchild from the Pac-12, even if it has a cooler helmet and deeper media rights pockets. 

This is a program that hasn’t won 11 games EVER, and now it will have a schedule that features Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State semi-annually. Oh, and good luck to a roster chalked with California kids playing in Wisconsin or Minnesota in late November. 

Oregon and Washington’s move also completely sapped UCLA (and USC’s) supposed “recruiting advantage” on the West Coast. The Bruins’ 2024 class currently ranks 41st nationally — again that’s Michigan State (43), Maryland (46) and Illinois (49) territory. 

Which makes the 2023 season even more important for Chip Kelly & Co., to take advantage of a solid roster and a navigable schedule by Pac-12 standards (no Washington or Oregon). 

Kelly had his best season in Westwood last fall, going 9-4 with quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson and star tailback Zach Charbonnet leading a high-powered UCLA offense. And while the Bruins must replace both the reigning Pac-12’s leading rusher and their all-time leader in yards, passing yards, touchdowns and completions, the offense should still be among the best in the conference.

2022 backup Ethan Garbers and 5-star freshman Dante Moore are battling for the starting quarterback job, but whoever gets the Week 1 nod will be surrounded by plenty of playmaking talent. There’s major questions on the offensive line (just two returning starters, with UCLA banking on several impact transfers), but the receiver room is stacked with Pac-12 transfers Kyle Ford from USC and J. Michael Sturdivant from Cal. They also added Ball State tailback Carson Steele, who had 1,556 yards and 14 touchdowns last season.

Moore recently took to social media to dispel rumors he was unhappy at UCLA and was considering a transfer, but Kelly downplayed the “distraction,” saying, “First I’ve ever heard of it, so it’s not a distraction to me, so I don’t … Dante’s awesome. That kid in this building every day, he has a real special effect on everybody. He seems like he’s in the building 24-7, but he’s really mature beyond his age and I’ve told him this, I think he’s a little bit of an old soul, he’s really thankful for everything that’s given to him and it’s the same thing you’ve heard from everywhere he’s been.”

 So I guess that’s settled? 

Defensively, UCLA brought in Bowling Green safety Jordan Anderson (four interceptions) to shore up a leaky secondary, but the Bruins’ front seven should be formidable with five returning starters — including pass rusher Laiatu Latu (10.5 sacks, 12.5 tackles for loss), and they have a new young, energizing DC. 

So perhaps the Bruins can exceed expectations this fall (they were picked to finish No. 6 in the Pac-12), and make a run at 10 wins and a conference championship berth. They probably need to considering they’re facing a future as an also-ran in CFB’s game of realignment roulette.