With Georgia and Texas the preseason favorites in the conference, who is the No. 3 team in the SEC in 2024?

In the last week, Fan Duel released its initial 2024 SEC win totals, and ESPN’s Bill Connelly unveiled his winter SP+ projections. With another spring transfer portal window, rosters will see more movement in the months to come, but for now, college football is relatively stable. 

Depending on your vantage point, it’s clear that Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and Texas are the projected Top 4 teams next fall — with all four teams having win totals at 10.5 and ranking in said order in Connelly’s SP+ 1.0 for 2024. 

After that, the first thing that jumps out with both the early win totals and SP+ rankings is how much of a meat-grinder the SEC is going to be next season. 

Ostensibly, we already knew this, but wholly moly is that notion confirmed when you see six SEC teams with nearly identical win totals and nine SEC teams ranked in Connelly’s top 15 (Oklahoma being the added team). 

Alabama – 9.5 (6th in SP+)

Ole Miss – 9.5 (8th in SP+)

LSU – 9.5 (10th in SP+)

Missouri – 9.5 (11th in SP+)

Texas A&M – 8.5 (13th in SP+)

Tennessee – 8.5 (15th in SP+) 

Each program’s case as the No. 3 team in the SEC in 2024

From both a metrics and expectations standpoint, Georgia and Texas are viewed separately from the rest of the pack, but depending on what happens in the fall, as many as six teams could make the case to be the No. 3 team in the SEC — which would mean a College Football Playoff berth and a chance to compete for a national championship. 

Considering its recent history and collection of Top 3 recruiting classes, Alabama deservedly is seen as the current odds-on favorite to be the No. 3 team next fall. Kalen DeBoer must replace the GOAT and the Tide’s returning production is super low, but DeBoer has won everywhere and the roster is still stacked with blue-chip talent. 

Ole Miss, LSU and Missouri are all cobbled next to each other with the same preseason win totals and SP+ percentages within a couple of points of one another.

Lane Kiffin’s Rebels are one of the off-season darlings thus far, once again cleaning up in the transfer portal. Ole Miss has a favorable 2024 schedule (all things considered), one of the better quarterbacks in the SEC (Jaxson Dart) and the beef along both lines of scrimmage (DT Walter Nolan, EDGE Princely Umanmielen, OT, Julius Buelow, OT Nate Kalepo, OG Diego Pounds) the program has been badly missing in years past.

Can they make another leap and truly contend for the SEC?

Both Tigers — LSU and Missouri — are intriguing for different reasons next season. Garrett Nussmeier must replace Heisman Trophy quarterback Jayden Daniels, but at least he’ll be blocked by maybe the best OL in the country next season. Meanwhile, Brian Kelly has completely overhauled LSU’s defense staff. What if Harold Perkins Jr. actually fulfills all the 2023 hype next season, and the Tigers actually play complementary football?

Eli Drinkwitz was able to hold onto offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, meaning the Tigers should boast one of the best attacks in the country again in 2024. Quarterback Brady Cook is back. Luther Burden III is maybe the No. 1 receiver in the SEC, and Georgia State transfer tailback Marcus Carroll (1,350 yards, 13 touchdowns) is an adequate replacement for Cody Schrader. If the Tigers can avoid a steep decline defensively after losing some key NFL departures and the departure of DC Blake Baker (now at LSU), then why can’t they win double-digit games again?

Lastly, Texas A&M and Tennessee both have win totals a tad lower than the aforementioned programs, but their 2024 ceilings are just as high — which is why they’re darkhorse candidates to emerge as the third-best team in the SEC next season, too. 

The Aggies rank first in the conference in returning production, as first-year head coach Mike Elko did a nice job using the transfer portal (13 Power 5 signees) to fill holes following an exodus of talent (Nolan, Evan Stewart, LT Overton). Elko won big in Year 1 at Duke, so if the pairing of hot-shot OC Collin Klein and former 5-star quarterback Conner Weigman meshes quickly, why couldn’t he do the same in his first season back in College Station?

Then there’s Nico Mania. 

The Vols have lost a lot of talent, particularly defensively, but the program’s upside remains tremendous thanks to the potential electric talent of 5-star quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The sophomore will be surrounded by a glut of playmakers (Squirrel White, Bru McCoy, Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell and 5-star freshman Mike Matthews), and Tennessee might also have the best defensive player in the SEC next season (pass rusher James Pearce). 

If Iamaleava is as good as advertised, then Tennessee could have one of the best 2-3 quarterbacks in the conference — and we saw what that team was capable of two years ago with Hendon Hooker. 

Some dynamics will change between now and preseason fall camp. Staffs will see continued turnover, and there will be additional transfers. But by and large, the foundations of these teams are set, and it sure looks like we’re in store for a fascinating 2024 season in the SEC.

So who is the No. 3 team in the league? For now, it looks like as many as six programs could make a real argument. I can’t wait to see how it all plays out in the fall.