All eyes on Arizona when Pac-12 informs members of media rights details

When embattled Pac-12 Conference Commissioner George Kliavkoff makes his long-awaited reveal of projected media rights details to league members Tuesday, Arizona President Robert Robbins will be seeking answers to two key questions:

Will the deal deliver at least $31.7 million annually to each league member? And will at least 50% of the league’s inventory be broadcast on linear TV networks, which offer broader exposure than streaming giants?

The answers to those questions – and more specifically Robbins’ reaction to them – will go a long way toward determining whether the Conference of Champions finds a way to stabilize in the wake of Colorado’s departure to the Big 12 Conference, or continues to crumble, one school at a time. The highly anticipated private unveiling of media rights details – first reported by Pac-12 insider John Canzano – comes some 11 months into protracted negotiations shrouded in secrecy.

For months, league members have exuded public confidence and a united front, even while apparently left in the dark on financial details. As a result, the wait and uncertainty became too much for Colorado, which returned home to the Big 12. With the conference’s future in peril, angst appears to have crescendoed.

What’s at stake is the survival of the Pac-12, at least in a recognizable version. What’s in play is a potential chain reaction of dominoes falling that could reshape much of the conference ecosystem. 

“If they [the Pac-12] implode, God only knows what happens to college sports,” one veteran TV source told On3.

Kliavkoff is confronting an escalating existential crisis with three schools having already announced departures in the last year – UCLA and USC (Big Ten), and Colorado. And now Arizona is on the precipice. Losing Arizona would mean 33% of the league’s schools left in the last year.

Fans accustomed to linear TV

Robbins at Arizona has remained steadfast that he wants to see financial projections before expressing fidelity to the Pac-12.

Dollars matter. Is the Pac-12 on track to deliver its member schools rights revenue in the ballpark of what Big 12 members will receive – $31.7 million? The Pac-12 has exuded confidence internally that it will reach that number, with one source telling Canzano months ago that it was a “layup.”

But exposure matters, too. The other question relates to the reach of league inventory. After the current deal expires on July 1, 2024, will the new deal place more than 50% of inventory on linear TV? That remains to be seen. 

In February, a week after the Pac-12 said in a statement that it would secure a media rights deal very soon, Neal Pilson, the former longtime CBS Sports president, told On3 that the league’s calculus is a matter of degree. But the preference is certainly traditional linear TV.

”If your linear offer is 80% streaming offer, you go linear,” Pilson said. “If it’s 40%, now it is a lot more of a difficult choice.”

What about Apple or Amazon?

The only reason the Pac-12 should give a tech company, if one is indeed involved, the bulk of its inventory, he said, is if it can’t make an acceptable deal with a linear channel.

“You’re not talking about college kids,” Pilson said. “You’re talking about alumni and fans of the Pac-12 who are used to watching it on linear television. And they don’t know how to connect their large TVs to the Internet. They will be forced to watch on their laptops or their phones. And you’re going to see a significant decline in their total audience if they move their package principally to Apple or Amazon.” 

It remains unclear which potential linear partners, if any, are currently negotiating with the league, much less how much of a slice of the pie they stand to receive.

Fourteen schools is the ‘right’ number for Big 12

Arizona would receive a full revenue share of $31.7 million if it joined the Big 12 in 2024. The reason stems from intricacies in the rights deal extension the Big 12 landed in October with partners ESPN and FOX Sports, a six-year pact worth $2.28 billion.

The ESPN portion of the deal, which provides each member some $20 million of the $31.7 million annually, includes a pro-rata clause. That stipulates that the value of the network’s portion of the deal will increase accordingly if the Big 12 adds a Power 5 school, a source familiar with the deal told On3.

As for the FOX portion of the deal, which represents some $11 million for each school annually, Action Network‘s Brett McMurphy reported that while the network is not contractually obligated to do the same as ESPN, it has verbally agreed to do so for two Power 5 additions.

Arizona would align with Yormark’s stated drive to double down on his league’s stature as the nation’s premier men’s basketball conference. Sources with direct knowledge of the league’s strategy told On3 that the Big 12 will continue to move aggressively now to add a 14th school – and it may not stop there.

“[Fourteen] has been identified as the ‘right’ number,” one source said Friday. “But it’s not a hard stop if going bigger made sense.”

Complicated negotiations ahead to finish deal

Uncertainty close the Pac-12 was to a rights deal before Colorado’s departure, it is likely further away from a resolution now. It complicates negotiations, to say the least, when potential partners have no guarantee that the teams in the conference will remain and which teams will be added to the league.

Uncertainty abounds.

Bob Thompson, the former president of FOX Sports Networks, tweeted that potential partners will likely want a composition clause, which spells out conference commitments from members.

“If I was looking at Pac-12 as a buyer I want to know which existing schools are in and who is coming in, and when,” Thompson said. “Then we can talk [money]. Then I want outs and/or downside protection if schools who I am told are staying and are coming never make it.”

Pac-12 expected to target SMU, San Diego State

During Pac-12 media day, Kliavkoff said what’s been a constant refrain for the league in recent months: that members are unified. He said he was not concerned about the Big 12 trying to poach Pac-12 schools.

Kliavkoff remains committed to an order of operations: secure the rights deal and then immediately address expansion. Its initial expansion targets are expected to be SMU and San Diego State.

SMU appears like a no-brainer in part because the Mustangs are poised to begin competing in the Pac-12 in 2024. The addition would deliver the Pac-12 some three million Dallas-Fort Worth TV homes and a university whose donors have long proven willing and able to dig into their deep pockets for a winner.

SMU’s exit fee is $10 million with a 27-month notice. But that is likely to be negotiated to grease the skids for the early exit.

The complications with San Diego State involve the exit fee. If the Aztecs want to join the Pac-12 in 2024, it would cost some $34 million. That is a steep bill for the university, though everything is subject to negotiation. But if they wish to join in 2025, that figure drops to $17 million. 

After that, Colorado State, to reclaim the Denver market, and UNLV, to double down on emerging sports hotbed Las Vegas, are among the schools that the Pac-12 could target. 

Will the Pac-12 deal feel right for UofA?

But at the moment, it is Yormark who continues to target Pac-12 schools.

Yormark told On3 at Big 12 media days that he would be “a little” disappointed if he didn’t add two schools by 2025. Among the most important elements he covets in expansion candidates: Leadership, geography, cultural fit, athletic performance and brand upside. 

Asked whether 14 schools was a magic number, he said, “I like 14. It is a nice, even number … 14 kind of feels right.”

Now the college sports world awaits whether the Pac-12’s projected rights deal feels right to Arizona.