What Big Ten expansion means for NIL, recruiting wars

The fate of the Pac-12 was not decided on a football field or in a recruiting battle. Television dollars, actually, the lack thereof, are what did in the conference.

As of Friday night, just four institutions remain in the 108-year-old conference. Oregon and Washington are bound for the Big Ten. The Big 12 has welcomed Arizona, Arizona State and Utah.

Commissioner George Kliavkoff opted to not accept a very similar deal the Big 12 took a year ago. Instead, media partners called his bluff on the value of the Pac-12 without USC and UCLA. The Apple deal presented earlier this week was underwhelming.

The reality: The demise of the conference began a year ago when the Trojans and Bruins took up the cash-rich Big Ten up on its offer.

“We’re all sad the Pac-12 is dead, but it died a year ago,” a soon-to-be Big Ten NIL collective leader said with a pause. “It’s just taken a year for it to bleed out. The history is going to go away. Bill Walton‘s Conference of Champions. But for the future of college football and college sports, you want to compete against the best. And that’s what this new Big Ten conference is.”

The Big Ten and SEC truly rule over college football. If there were any questions from realignment dominoes in the last two summers, it’s clear two super leagues now hold power over the sport. Former Big Ten commissioner Kevin Warren‘s dream of expansion was realized by Tony Petitti.

Speaking with a range of recruiting directors, agents and NIL collectives Friday afternoon, it’s clear nearly every top-100 prospect will want to play their college football in one of the two conferences. It’s where the richest programs live and the most eyeballs watching athletes play.

Many were unfazed by the additions from a recruiting perspective. A Big Ten general manager pointed out how many battles their program is already in with USC and Oregon. Joining the same conference won’t make too much of a difference.

Impact of expansion on collectives, recruiting departments

From an NIL perspective, not much will change. Multiple collective directors said the addition of Washington and Oregon to the conference will only excite donors to spend more. Building an NIL war chest has been imperative for programs to attract prospects. The race in college football is to stockpile the most cash to distribute to current players so recruits know what they can make once they enroll at the school.

“All of this — everybody who pays attention realizes this is ratcheting up the level of competition,” a source close to Oregon’s NIL market told On3. “Nothing matters more than the combination of talent acquisition and staff stability. Now that we have [Dan] Lanning locked up conceivably through 2031, it’s all about talent acquisition. That’s the argument we’ll be making.

“I think it matters we’re in one of the two super leagues because you have coaches like Ryan Day, on the record, telling boosters I need $13 million for my roster. It’s not hypothetical, it’s actual. This is going to provide a great challenge for collectives to make a strong pitch to donors.”

A current Big Ten recruiting director also shared excitement about the additions. While it could prove more challenges in travel and on-field competition, it fully opens up the opportunity to recruit on the West Coast. For many schools in the Big Ten that aren’t name brands like Ohio State or Michigan, playing in front of family a couple of times a year could now be in the pitch.

“Great opportunity for the conference,” the recruiting director said. “Fantastic competition that’ll raise the conference in many ways and recruiting will definitely be one of those. It’ll give them opportunities to come recruit the Midwest just like it’ll give us more opportunities to go recruit the West Coast.

“And if you aren’t in them [SEC or Big Ten] you’re on the outside looking in.”

Collectives have continued to see their financial packages evolve for athletes. With the influx of NIL cash in the college football space, prospects have only wanted to see more offered.

What was once just a bag of cash or keys to a brand new car, expectations at elite programs is to provide funds for families to travel across the nation each weekend to watch their son play. A Big Ten collective leader stated the obvious on Friday.

“We’ve already been going at USC and Oregon for recruits,” they said. “I think the one tricky thing, as we want to lure more recruits from the West Coast, there’s obviously that factor of transportation. The budget may need to be upped a little bit.”

How could Big Ten have recruiting advantage over SEC?

With TV contracts set to balloon, revenue sharing without classifying athletes as employees could soon be an option. Oregon and Washington making the jump to the Big Ten only strengthens the case.

The fight over employee status is also coming. The National Labor Relations Board’s Los Angeles office filed a complaint against the NCAA, Pac-12 Conference and USC for unfair labor practices in May, and a hearing with an NLRB Administrative Law Judge is set for Nov. 7 in Los Angeles. 

The plaintiffs in Johnson v. NCAA, former Villanova football player Trey Johnson and other Division I athletes, are asking that athletes be deemed employees subject to the Fair Labor Standards Act. Plus, while put on pause until next year, the College Athlete Protection Act would require institutions that fund major college sports to pay as much as $25,000 annually to athletes. The California bill passed the Assembly before being delayed until 2024, according to USA Today.

The Big Ten starts its new TV contract this fall. When all the distribution dust settles, it will pay schools handsomely.

Could those dollars one day give the Big Ten an advantage over the SEC, which has a less valuable TV deal?

“The only thing I think about with that is if revenue sharing and employment come into play,” an agent who reps multiple high school athletes said. “Will Big Ten schools have more — let’s say it’s a salary cap split and it comes from TV revenue. Are they going to have a bigger pool to play with? Which is a fair question.

“I can see that being something to consider, but we’re not there yet. Maybe it’s a few years from now. “