Cavinder twins’ transfer plans figure to interest NIL collectives

They entered the transfer portal in March wielding impressive basketball résumés, a TikTok account with 4 million followers and enough endorsement deals to make a pro athlete jealous.

As thousands of athletes make portal pit stops this spring, NIL industry insiders have their eyes on two 21-year-old sisters who could establish a high-water mark for athletes in one particular sport. If any players are uniquely positioned to provide a snapshot of the financial muscle of women’s basketball-centric NIL collectives, it’s Hanna and Haley Cavinder, both of whom are transferring from Fresno State. 

On the court, the twins are double-digit scorers. Off the court, they are social media influencers with profound reach in the Gen Z demographic and beyond; in addition to their joint TikTok account, each has an Instagram account with almost 400,000 followers and their dual account has about 43,000. Their university of choice undoubtedly will be supercharged with enhanced exposure as its women’s program basks in much of the social media spotlight they attract. That reward alone is enough to spark the attention of ambitious donor-driven collectives.

“The Cavinder twins could garner a significant amount from a NIL collective, based on both their prominence in social media platforms as well as their abilities as players,” Dale Hutcherson, a Memphis-area attorney who specializes in sports and trademark law, told On3. “They are a powerhouse and a social media manager’s dream as far as garnering national exposure for a given university’s program and athletic department.

“There is no doubt these two will bring more money to whatever program they choose to be a part of and represent.”

Both are 5-foot-6 guards. Haley averaged 19.8 points per game this season, 21st nationally, one year after winning Mountain West Conference player of the year honors. Hanna averaged 14.5 points per game. But where their numbers truly hover in rarefied air is on social media. That enabled them to usher in the NIL era in grand fashion with the announcement of their Boost Mobile deal on July 1.

Blake Lawrence, co-founder and CEO of Opendorse, told On3 there are schools that would “greatly benefit, or be interested in, having two of the most marketable players not just in college but in pro sports on their campus. Is their decision being made based on the size of the market opportunities? Are they more likely to be at UCLA or USC, or somewhere in the Northeast, or closer to a big city in Miami? And these donor collectives that have weight – it’s not truly an inducement but they certainly are involved in rewarding athletes that have been a player in their communities. Will the Cavinder twins be the target of a collective that is looking to bolster the marketability of the women’s basketball program?”

If so, that would mark a new phase for women’s basketball. To date, the faces of the sport – the Cavinder twins and UConn’s Paige Bueckers and Azzi Fudd chief among them – have secured an array of lucrative endorsement deals. Securing a similar NIL payday with a collective – most collective dollars so far have earmarked for football and men’s basketball players – would underscore the power of the Cavinder twins’ brand, which is more popular than that of any current men’s basketball player. 

An apt comparison would be five-star basketball recruit Mikey Williams, who has 3.7 million Instagram followers. As his teenage years have progressed, Williams has morphed into more of a can’t-miss social media influencer than a can’t-miss NBA prospect. Nevertheless, he has maximized his ability to monetize his brand through endorsement activity, which includes his own Puma sneaker deal.

A test case for NIL collectives and women’s basketball

The Cavinders, who went to high school in the Phoenix suburbs, represent a high-profile test case for the interest collectives have in women’s basketball beyond garden variety NIL deals. Are they ready to invest big dollars to yield a commitment that would bring a university substantially heightened social media exposure?

“Their presence could not only improve the team through impressive athletic performance and a better win-loss record, but their presence brings a different level of exposure to a given program,” Hutcherson said, “which potentially means a brighter future in terms of recruiting, program prominence and overall revenue flow into a given university.”

Ayden Syal, CEO and co-founder of NIL company MOGL, said the twins could and should garner substantial compensation from a collective. But he notes that any deal should occur after they enroll in their new school, or else it is a recruiting inducement and not an above-board NIL activity.

“This is a creators’ market and they have built their platform to be able to command value,” Syal told On3. “Depending on the program, their arrival could have an immense and immediate impact beyond simply in the local market where businesses can benefit from their marketability. Their presence across numerous platforms and within the creator economy will help to promote their chosen program indirectly on a daily basis.”

Lawrence said the largest source of NIL compensation overall is currently from donor-driven collectives. After a successful first season in the NIL era, industry sources said, the next step for women’s basketball specifically entails solidifying relationships with these ambitious collectives. No one envisions women’s basketball-centric collectives to encompass the multimillion-dollar war chests proliferating the football world. But if 15 donors, for instance, are inspired to contribute $50,000 apiece annually, then 15 players on a team would have $50,000 annually just from NIL activity through that collective. 

“That’s significant,” Lawrence said. “It will set a new ground floor for compensation. That’s a real opportunity to have a baseline expectation of what women’s basketball players are going to receive without having to be TikTok stars or social media influencers.”

But the Cavinder twins are TikTok stars. They are social media influencers. And the going rate for rare marketable athletes of their stature can’t be overstated. Some in the industry laughed last summer when Lawrence projected that the Cavinder twins could earn close to $1 million annually. Less than a year later, having secured numerous endorsements and flying in private jets to Los Angeles for photo shoots, no one is laughing now at those figures. And the best news for them and women’s basketball? More dollars are likely headed their way once they choose their next college destination. 

Four million followers are watching with interest, as are some forward-thinking collectives. 

As Lawrence said, “It is a new world for them.”