How the NIL effect impacted the NFL Draft

As countless talking heads offer reactions and overreactions from the NFL Draft, one of the biggest draft game-changers can’t be assessed by height, weight or 40 times: 

NIL, which had its fingerprints all over the latter rounds. 

Now that we’re fully entrenched in the NIL Era, it’s a new day for day three of the event.

Scores of underclassmen with latter-round draft grades are now returning to college for another year, their decision to delay a professional payday cushioned by six-figure NIL packages. That option provides them with an additional year to develop in hopes of an early-round selection next year.

No longer are underclassmen faced with this dilemma: Get paid now or return to school to bolster draft stock.

By extending their time on campus, they are increasingly doing both.

“This will be a trend – where [draft classes] won’t be as deep as they used to be,” said Brett Veach, the general manager of the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. “If you are a junior, and you have a third- or fourth-round grade, and you have the opportunity to stay in school and make money, you’re going to go back. 

“The availability of young guys with potential that [would come] out early, those guys are staying now. So, I think the drop-off numbers are a little bit more extreme this year, and the players are a little bit older.”

Numbers show NIL’s impact on NFL Draft

Here’s where the trend lines are headed: In the pre-NIL world three years ago, 130 underclassmen entered the draft. There were 82 last year.

This year? Only 58, the fewest since 2011.

Despite naysayers still cursing the NIL world, this is a boon for college football and a benefit for athletes who can be compensated while further refining their craft in hopes of making a larger draft splash the following year.

How pronounced was the lack of latter-round depth?

San Francisco 49ers general manager John Lynch said the team had draftable grades on only 170 players this year. In addition, they had grades on 83 players whom they deemed had a more than 50% chance to be in the draft. 

But all are back in college next season, Lynch said, largely because of NIL – and that includes 35 with NFL starter grades.

“There’s now a different route these kids can take,” said Lynch, acknowledging that the latter rounds likely would be “lacking.”

“So, it’s a new dynamic, one I imagine we’re going to be faced with each year,” Lynch said. “You can go back and make a million dollars. I don’t know if that’s the going rate, but it is providing competition and that’s a significant amount of players. It’s something the whole league’s going to deal with.”

Former NFL general manager Michael Lombardi posted on social media that – because of NIL dollars and, in turn, the dearth of juniors in the draft – the third day of this year’s draft was missing 100 players who would normally have declared.

Because of NIL money and the reduction of juniors entering the draft these third day picks are missing 100 players who would normally have declared. What Philadelphia did was smart

— Michael Lombardi (@mlombardiNFL) April 27, 2024

Returning to school for NIL can improve stock

Many NFL scouting personnel have said in recent weeks that more players returning to school afford them an easier evaluation process down the road because there is a larger collegiate sample size. So, long term, it can ultimately be a win-win for all parties.

To only have 58 underclassmen in the draft, Jim Nagy, executive director of the Senior Bowl, said it certainly shows “which way this thing is going with NIL. NIL is a great thing for the players, an awesome thing. But it does have an effect on the draft.”

Traditionally, Veach added, when you’re assessing latter-round prospects, there are always small school players and intriguing underclassmen. But now they have to work harder to pinpoint draft-eligible young players with an appealing upside. The NIL effect, he said, is “going to make every draft a little tougher to work with on the back end.”