John Calipari has the NIL budget, can he deliver Arkansas a national title?

John Calipari was not joking Wednesday night in Fayetteville: The new Arkansas coach does not have a team.

The Razorbacks have seen eight players hit the transfer portal. Trevon Brazile announced plans to enter the NBA draft. Four other players from the 2023-24 season are out of eligibility.

“Now, I met with the team. There is no team,” the former Kentucky coach deadpanned. “Hunter is extremely confident (in Calipari’s recruiting ability), but we’ve got to get a roster together. And some of it is a little bit of everything, but we will.”

“It may take a little longer because there are kids that put their name in the NBA draft that are going to go through some of the process, which means, do you wait for that kid? Or do you go take somebody that’s not quite as good and you’re going to be juggling balls?”

John Calipari will have large NIL war chest

John Calipari will not have to spend his first week on the job racing to meet donors to raise NIL dollars, though.

A source told On3 he will have “at least” $5 million annually in NIL funds to disperse. The same source estimated the budget will be in the $6 million ballpark. That will place the Razorbacks at the top of the sport, where typical Power 4 budgets range from $1 to $4 million.

Most of those dollars will be from top boosters. The Arkansas EDGE NIL collective set the framework, and there’s confidence local businesses and national brands will want to be attached to the Calipari-led basketball team, too.

As part of Calipari’s welcome in Fayetteville, a source told On3 that he met with high-level donors including the Tysons and Waltons. John H. Tyson, the billionaire chairman of Tyson Foods and a longtime major donor at Arkansas played a crucial role in bringing Calipari and athletic director Hunter Yurachek to the bargaining table.

Does NIL money buy championships?

Does having the biggest NIL budget secure wins? Multiple sources told On3 in recent weeks Kansas had the largest payroll in college basketball this season. The Jayhawks lost in the second round of the NCAA Tournament by more than 20 points.

“That budget doesn’t impress me,” an SEC NIL collective executive told On3. “So far, we have not seen money buy championships. Cal’s model has always been to bring in the best talent and all for them to leave after a year for the NBA draft. He has so much turnover. He’s putting a new team on the floor every year without college experience.

“Unless he gets these guys on a long-term contract for two or three years – two years is probably more realistic – but if they can do that then maybe. Maybe have some cohesiveness. I just don’t think having that budget makes a difference. I don’t in this specific case.”

Calipari will need to rethink how he pieces together his roster in a time where athletes can negotiate and programs tamper without fear. In his 15 seasons at Kentucky, he went to three Final Four appearances and a national title. The Basketball Hall of Fame inductee signed the nation’s top-ranked recruiting class eight times in his tenure, according to the On3 Industry Ranking Team Recruiting rankings. The Wildcats also assembled six No. 2 classes.

Under Calipari, Kentucky had 47 players selected in the NBA draft. Those numbers are unprecedented. The Wildcats are the only program to have six prospects selected in the same draft, accomplishing the feat twice in 2012 and 2015.

What positions are worth most in portal?

UConn and Purdue played for the national title Monday night; they are two of the oldest teams in the sport. Despite all his success, Calipari may need to change his roster management tactics. With one of the highest budgets in the sport, Arkansas should be able to be aggressive in the transfer portal where veterans are aplenty.

The most valuable positions in the basketball transfer portal – where most NIL dollars are used these days – are power forwards and centers. For high-end talent at those positions, $1 million deals are commonplace.

Even top guards are making roughly half a million a year. Speaking with sources over the last week, On3’s learned of a conference player of the year transfer earning $500,000. Another guard is set to make $450,000. Helping a college basketball program get back to relevancy is imperative for bluebloods.

Agents have repeatedly told On3 that programs can build a “really good team” with $1 million. What can John Calipari do with $5 to $7 million?

It sure seems like national title or bust in Fayetteville.