NIL, transfer portal allowing top NFL draft prospects to make 'better football decisions'

INDIANAPOLIS – Wednesday marks the true start of the hype train leading up to the NFL draft. Top college prospects line the halls of the Indiana Convention Center for the NFL Scouting Combine. Agents and top NFL personnel speak in hushed voices in different nooks around Indianapolis.

The storylines are aplenty, too. Will Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr.’s decision not to workout impact their stock? Who could emerge as the name nobody knew entering the week?

Talent in the back half of this year’s NFL draft is noticeably thinner, though. Yahoo’s Dan Wetzel recently reported that just 54 collegiate underclassmen are in this year’s talent pool. Add in four more who have completed their undergraduate degrees early and there are 58 early entrants.

What is driving the dip? Every athlete’s decision is on a case-by-case basis. But it’s clear that NIL and the transfer portal are helping keep some top talent in the college ranks a little longer. The 58 early entries are the lowest since the 2011 draft. Between 2016 to 2022, an average of 115 players left their institution early for the draft.

College football market has changed dramatically

The college market has significantly changed in the last 30 months and change, and it is now flushed with cash. Top programs are willing to offer lucrative packages to elite talent to stay another year in school. Group of Five players are taking advantage of the one-time transfer policy, trying their hand at playing in the SEC, Big Ten, ACC or Big 12. And the current college football calendar is a factor, too.

“I’ll say this, I think NIL is a great thing,” said Jim Nagy, the executive director of the Reese’s Senior Bowl and longtime NFL scout. “And it’s allowed some guys to make better football decisions than in the past. A lot of guys used to leave early, even knowing they probably weren’t going to get drafted. They felt like they needed to bet on themselves and take a shot or a difficult family circumstance. Now they don’t have to do that.

“But I’ll say this, there were a lot of guys that, in my opinion, and based on feedback and grades we got from the NFL, a lot of these guys made bad decisions this year by going back and chasing NIL money. They would have made exponentially more if they had come out in this year’s draft and been a Day 3 pick and got a signing bonus.”

Other sources have indicated to On3 that agents could be driving athletes back to college to take a percentage from NIL collective deals.

Most contract agents in the college space are pocketing between 3 to 10% off of agreements with booster-funded NIL collectives. The latest ruling in the Eastern District of Tennessee halting the NCAA’s power to govern NIL has only exacerbated the need for athletes to find representation they can trust.

“I think there are two kinds of agents,” a source with experience working with collectives and NFL front offices told On3. “Most agents are trying to convince guys to either stay in college because they think they can negotiate a good package for him, or convince him to turn pro because that’s where the real money is. Most agents, unfortunately, make decisions for players with their own bottom line in mind.”

QB depth in 2024 NFL draft driven by NIL

Most NFL draft experts believe there are three elite quarterbacks in this year’s class: Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye. The second tier consists of J.J. McCarthy, Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler, with Michael Pratt in the mix, too.

Of that group, five transferred at least once in their college careers. Quarterbacks are easily paid the most money, thanks to the rise of NIL, at the collegiate level. Names like Sam Hartman, Joe Milton, Nix, Penix and Pratt all played late into their collegiate careers.

“At the quarterback position, it does make financial sense for a lot of these guys to stay in school,” Nagy said. “If you’re a Power Five quarterback at some of these bigger programs, you’re going to make more money. I mean, most of those guys are making seven figures. You’re going to make more money doing that than coming out and being a fifth or sixth-round draft pick.”

Carson Beck, Jaxson Dart and Quinn Ewers could have bet on themselves against this year’s draft class. Instead, they’ll be three of the biggest names in college football in 2024.

“The draft class at quarterback is really deep at the top,” an agent told On3. “I keep a sheet – it’s amazing how many of these guys stayed in college and it just shows at the top of the draft. We went into the 2022 season thinking that the quarterback draft would be really deep. Why did some of these guys make the decision to stay in college?

“I think it’s twofold. I think when they had to make their decision, they didn’t know who was turning pro or not. So I’m sure the perceived depth of the quarterback class played a role. But certainly, NIL played a bigger role.”

Top players turning down NFL millions

This year’s Senior Bowl marked the first that Nagy could invite juniors to attend. Not all of the top juniors in the country decided to come out of college early, however, instead returning to their respective schools and signing NIL deals for the next 12 months.

By the time Nagy was going back to asking a second batch of seniors to jump in the game, they’d already taken NIL dollars. Some of that the Senior Bowl director attributes to NIL agents. His biggest takeaway is the price differential between NIL dollars and NFL contracts.

“I know of players in this draft cycle that went back to school for a fifth or sixth year, chasing $150,000 to $200,000 in NIL money when if they had come out in the draft, they would have been fourth or fifth-round draft picks and making $1.6, $1.7 million,” Nagy said. “I think it’s hard for these guys, they don’t have a lot to lean on. There’s not a lot of track record. There’s just not a lot of upside to whether you come out this year or next year.

“You’re probably going to be a ceiling as a fifth-round draft pick or fourth-round draft pick. Those are the ones that were head scratchers for me.