NIL creates multi-million market rate for blue-chip quarterbacks

“Everyone wants that Nico money.”

When the calendar flipped to July 1, 2021, it ushered in one of the most radical changes in college sports with the birth of the Name, Image and Likeness era. Since that moment, recruiting – especially at the quarterback position – has been transformed by the NIL, unlike anything we’ve ever seen.

It’s gotten to the point where coaches say NIL has become the No. 1 influence in a majority of prospects’ decisions.

“It’s such a factor now you could do everything right and do everything perfect and out-recruit everybody, but you can lose a guy because of the NIL opportunities,” Penn State coach James Franklin said.

It’s also gotten to the point where many involved in the process – college and high school coaches, sources close to the players’ recruitments, families and even the prospects themselves – say a market rate has been established for highly-coveted quarterbacks.

In early March, The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel reported a five-star 2023 recruit signed an $8 million NIL deal with a school’s collective. It’s widely believed that quarterback Nico Iamaleava is the five-star recruit behind the reported deal. It’s not been officially confirmed. But within 10 days of the deal being signed, Iamaleava committed to Tennessee.

The deal with Iamaleava also created a bounce in the On3 NIL Valuations formula – especially at quarterback. We learned the initial NIL valuations were too low and quarterbacks clearly lead the market, so we adjusted accordingly in an update on Tuesday.

It was a move that reshaped recruiting as we know it. It’s also a move that established what insiders say it will take for programs to land an elite quarterback.

Quarterback NIL market in the millions

Insiders, who asked On3 for anonymity so they can speak freely on the subject, say many top collectives are willing to spend at least $1 million on a blue-chip quarterback. They also say the market value – also known as the usual price charged for a good or service – has taken a turn toward the $1.5 to $8 million range after Iamaleava’s deal became public.

“Everything is based on what Nico is getting – the number being out there between $7.5 and $8 million for four years,” an SEC recruiting coordinator said. “What we’re seeing is that everybody wants that Nico money. They want that Nico number.”

A Pac-12 quarterback coach said the range definitely is in the millions.

“At least $1.5 million,” the coach said. “But more like $2 or even $2.5 million, even for some guys in the 2024 class already. There’s no [expletive] way we can get an elite quarterback. Our collective doesn’t have $2.5 million to spend on one player, even if it’s a priority position like a quarterback.”

A Big 12 coach said his program is pursuing a quarterback that is asking for $1.5 million from collectives.

“He’s our top target on the board, and our collective knows that,” the coach said. “The recruit and his family have all the power on their end now. We can’t be officially involved in those discussions. But he’s going to get whatever he wants. He’s in demand.”

4-star QB allegedly turns down $6 million

Those numbers seem accurate based on what several sources have uncovered. They’ve even encountered examples of quarterbacks wanting the top end of the range.

“I know one four-star quarterback is trying to get between $7 and $8 million,” one source that’s been around recruiting for decades told On3. “He turned down $6 million from one school’s collective. I know that for a fact. There’s another five-star quarterback where we’ve heard he just wants $1 million total.”

Another source said the quarterback market rate is “astronomical.”

“It’s different for each kid, but the consensus is in the $2.5 to $8 million range,” he said. “As some of these guys wait things out more, we’re being told that’s going to drive the rate even higher to $5 to $8 million.

“These things are astronomical. They’re professional contracts. I can’t tell the difference between a NIL deal and what we’re seeing in the NFL.”

On3 NIL valuations climbing at QB

The On3 NIL Valuation is an index that looks to set the standard market value for both high school and college-level athletes. The NIL valuation does not act as a tracker of the value of NIL deals an athlete has completed to date. It rather signifies an athlete’s value at a certain moment in time.

For example, Five-Star Plus+ uncommitted quarterback Arch Manning’s NIL value is now at $3.1 million – an increase of 49% in the past few weeks. Along with the reworking of the valuation formula, Manning has seen an increase because he’s taken a number of high-profile campus visits and there’s a lot of buzz around Alabama, Georgia, and Texas.

Iamaleava’s NIL value is $779K, which is up more than 111% from points in April. Even five-star uncommitted quarterback Dante Moore – who has Notre Dame, LSU, Oregon and Miami at the top of his list and a Texas A&M official visit in the works – has seen a massive increase in his NIL value because of his hot recruitment. He’s now got an On3 NIL Valuation of $651K, which has climbed 376% from late April.

Jaden Rashada, another uncommitted four-star quarterback, now has an On3 NIL Valuation of $453K – up a whopping 598% over the past few weeks. The On3 Recruiting Prediction Machine lists Rashada’s top schools as Oregon, Miami and Texas A&M.

Who’s pushing the market rate for quarterbacks?

There is no more premium position in football than quarterback. And like it is in the NFL, the demand for top talent at the signal-caller position is massive.

In years past, quarterbacks largely picked schools for reasons like playing time, style of play, location and the potential to make it to the NFL. But now insiders say families of quarterbacks know their sons are wanted, so they’re making substantial NIL requests to college coaches and collectives that represent the schools.

“What I’m hearing is that it’s definitely the families of the quarterbacks or people close to the families that are driving these discussions,” one of the sources told On3. “It’s not the collective groups, not the kids themselves. It’s the families and close circles.

“And now that they know there’s a going rate, this is what they’ve dreamed of. This is basically what they’ve been working for all these years. Now they can see where they can get the best contract offer.”

Another source agreed.

“It’s almost like a pride thing,” the source said. “They want to get paid. They want to say, ‘My kid’s worth this and it changes our family’s lifestyle.’”

That’s echoed by numerous college coaches and even some lawyers involved in crafting NIL contracts between prospects and collectives. For example, one lawyer told On3 he had a multi-million dollar deal ready to execute with a collective, but the quarterback’s family backed away because it wasn’t big enough.

“They saw Nico get all that money and they’re thinking ‘My kid is just as good, if not better,’” an SEC director of recruiting said.

What about other positions?

NIL is definitely a factor throughout the recruiting process for other positions.

One Big 12 coach told On3 he lost a three-star defensive recruit to a rival because of a $50,000 NIL deal with a collective. One Big Ten coach said recruits making deals with collectives are “everywhere, even on defense.” But everybody seems to agree that it’s nowhere near the same market rate as what we’re seeing at the quarterback spot.

“Quarterback is really the only position that we’ve heard numbers like this for,” one of the sources said. “Obviously, they commit earlier and are the face of the classes. There are some high-profile guys that are garnering in the hundreds of thousands. But I don’t think they’re touching quarterbacks right now as far as setting the market.”

Where will the quarterback NIL market go?

The words free agency were used over and over by insiders when reporting on this story. It’s even been used by head coaches when asked what they think about NIL’s impact on recruiting.

“I guess I got called a clown before for saying how it is,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin said recently.  “NIL has a lot to do with where players go, and to not think that is crazy. There are schools with no shot to recruit certain players. If a class has an average of $25 million, that’s $1 million a person. In NFL free agency, players go to the most money. These players are 17 and 18; they’re going to go where they get paid most.

“You’ve legalized paying players.”

And as things go with other markets, as supply decreases and demand increases, the price will rise. The same is expected to happen with the quarterback NIL market rate. That’s especially true as more top quarterbacks commit and top programs without a recruit at the position become desperate to land a difference-maker.

“I think some guys still look for the player development and the right culture,” one of the sources said. “Recruiting still goes on. But in the world, money talks. And now with recruiting money talks. Money equals NIL deals. I think 90% of the time that’s going trump what even Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Ryan Day and James Franklin are saying.”