What role will NIL play in April's transfer portal window?

Ahead of the transfer portal opening in December, the warnings from college football insiders and NIL rolled in.

Chaos. Lies. Tampering.

There was some truth to that, sure. But the talent pool and disorder many were expecting did not come together. Instead, the war chests NIL collectives built up went to players already on rosters, working to retain schools’ top talent. Plenty of talented names still left, using their one-time transfer to make a change.

On Saturday, the transfer portal opens again for the spring window. The expectations are not there like they were a few months back with the portal’s opening that runs from April 15 to April 30. The SEC still has its intra-conference ruling, which requires fall sport athletes to “declare his or her intent to transfer” by Feb. 1.

Sources have also indicated to On3 there is not a general consensus on what the talent will look like. Last spring’s big-ticket name was Jordan Addison, who landed at USC.

“I don’t think it’s going to be anything like December in January,” an agent working strictly in NIL told On3.

What do college coaches expect when the portal window opens Saturday?

Meanwhile, multiple collective operators are nervous about top athletes leaving for nonexistent, lucrative NIL packages.

“If you’re going after a guy right now, you’re trying to fill a need,” an SEC collective leader said. “And the cost to do that is – it’s obviously gonna be at a premium.”

What has not changed is how the portal can reshape the roster of a program. While December was used to truly restock position rooms, expectations are for this spring to be used to nitpick. Many expect the spring to be used to land a player needed to take a team from bowl eligible to conference contender.

Athletic departments may want time to figure out what a more mature version of NIL should look like, but fan bases want to win. There is pressure on coaches to deliver. And the quickest way to make progress is through the portal by way of NIL resources.

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Two Big Ten personnel members from separate programs each identified offensive tackles and defensive linemen as the two positions schools will be paying a high price for.

“I think there’s not going to be very many high-quality ones [at those positions],” one Big Ten recruiting staffer said. “So you’re gonna see teams, maybe SEC or ACC teams, reach on not very good ones. Because they’re like, they’ve gone through spring and they say, ‘Oh, shit, we just need somebody.’

“I think some teams will be desperate for certain positions. Like I mean, you’re gonna run into a lot of teams who think in their mind like, ‘Hey, we might be able to compete for a championship conference championship, we might be able to be for the playoffs. We’re like right there.’ And then they’ll get desperate for something.”

The wave of spring games will also play a role on how hectic the portal is. This Saturday, 27 programs will hold a spring scrimmage. But major programs including Oregon, Maryland and Rutgers won’t play their spring games until April 29.

Another point of interest is how schools use the portal as a way to cut players. Some rosters are bulked up and need to make room for their summer enrollees. The Big Ten staff member characterized it as “gunk.”

Collective concern about lies, false promises

For the faults NIL has produced in the last 21 months, athletes are finally able to pocket some cash. The portal has become another way for some players to land an NIL package. Multiple sources told On3 a Big Ten NIL collective paid $250,000 for a quarterback back in December.

While that may be the going rate for a starting Power Five quarterback, not every player is commanding a six-figure salary. And that is a narrative collectives are going to have to fight when free agency begins on Saturday.

“Our philosophy is to stay ahead of it, right,” an SEC collective director said. “So if I can pay, just for numbers purposes, my offensive lineman $2,000 a month for 12 months and X deliverables, they’re like, ‘Oh, my gosh, thank you so much.’ They’re not going to pick up their phone and look at these texts about your, ‘Hey, call me about this.’

“If we wait until they get courted by somebody else, that $24,000 might get turned into $50,000. We might end up overpaying. And that’s what we keep trying to tell the boosters is – your dollar value today is worth $1 for $1. But you’re about to see your value, once the portal opens, your dollar can only be worth a quarter because we’re gonna have to overpay these players to keep them because other schools are supposedly courting them for more money.”

NIL entities dedicated to raising funds for roster retention and attracting recruits are also weary of locker room chemistry during the portal. When the season starts, the focus turns to football. But when the portal opens and teammates possibly leave for the promise of more cash, players start to ask one another how much the collective is paying the athlete.

On top of locker room chemistry, lying about NIL numbers is not new. Back in November, On3 talked to coaches and agents about how recruits are lying to top 25 programs about the NIL package being offered by other schools vying for their commitment. Anything to drive up the price of their recruitment and earn more cash. 

Collectives are anticipating a similar situation this weekend. Whether it be family members or agents, athletes will pit schools against each other.

“All of a sudden, these kids are making like $110,000 and what is it? What’s the difference between asking for that and $300K? You know, it seems kind of similar to me. I don’t know. Yeah. So a lot of times when we’ll have kids just ask us for more money. Yeah, we’re like, ‘Okay, well, what exactly you’re looking for? Well, I’m not sure. I just need more.’

“If somebody’s telling you that they’re gonna give you $300K, I literally don’t know any collective in the country who would pay that for you. So, somebody’s lying to you. And you’re about to make a decision because of money.”

Role of agents in transfer portal

Nearly every high-profile player in college football now has an agent. Some agencies are brand new, created solely to work in the NIL space. Other firms have been established for years and do most of their work in the professional space.

How the agent works with a collective could seriously shape an athlete’s time at their school. Marketing professionals have also told On3 that agents could try to have their clients land at the more marketable school for brands.

At the end of the day, however, agents are fine playing hardball. Some see that as a negative.

“Agents are trying to get their players to go chase money and try to drive their value up and leverage different schools,” an agent working in the NIL space said. “And then, you know, even when they think they might have something, that doesn’t mean that the collective is going to come through for sure. They might say, ‘Well, maybe we’ll do it.’

“Honestly, I think agents are hurting the transfer portal because they’re chasing the money instead of actually what’s in the best interest for the young student-athletes.”

What is not lost on agents on how fragile relationships can be with collectives. If an agreement is not put in writing, there’s no track record if the organization hasn’t actually fulfilled the promises.

For athletes who do actually have a shot at playing in the NFL and hearing their name called in the draft, staying put could be the most viable option.

“We’re really telling guys to keep perspective in terms of, you know, don’t underestimate the value of familiarity and respect that you have within your current situation,” the head of a high-profile agency told On3. “The grass isn’t always greener. If we have a kid that’s draft eligible, and they’re at of school – let’s say the package the school put together was $250K for this year. And another school comes in and says, ‘Hey, we’ll give you half a million, $750,000.

“We’ve had the conversation like listen, ‘Yes, an extra $250,000 this year is dope. But what if you transfer and you have a problem with your positional coach? What if your offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator doesn’t see your talent the same way your current situation does?'”