Three pressing questions as House vs. NCAA settlement talks ramp up

Amateurism in college sports has been dead for years, but the future seems to be closer than ever before.

The NCAA and conferences are deep in settlement talks with attorneys representing the plaintiffs in House vs. NCAA. If the NCAA chooses to take the case to trial next January, it could owe $4.2 billion to thousands of athletes in retroactive NIL pay and broadcast revenue, a bill that could financially cripple the organization

If a settlement is reached beforehand, the NCAA and power conferences could still owe athletes more than $1 billion and, more significantly, would almost certainly usher in a future model that includes revenue sharing.

The start of the NIL Era in the summer of 2021 jumpstarted this transformative time in college sports. Mixed with pressure from state laws and the Supreme Court’s unanimous ruling in Alston v. NCAA, revenue sharing did not appear far off. Now conferences are in negotiations over a lawsuit that will reshape college sports.

As settlement talks center stage in college sports, plenty of questions remain about the future. In honor of the one-year anniversary of the On3 NIL and Sports Business Newsletter, we’re examining three questions that will be pressing as House vs. NCAA approaches. 

What players’ association takes center stage?

Multiple organizations have already formed as players’ organizations for college athletes. Among the most notable include Athletes.Org (AO), the College Football Players Association (CFBPA) and the National College Players Association. AO has signed up roughly 3,000 athletes since its inception in August. UAB became the first D-I football team to sign with AO last week.

CFBPA worked with the Penn State football team in the summer of 2022 before talks broke off. AO and CFBPA support models where athletes could collectively bargain their share of revenue without being classified as employees.

AO founder Jim Cavale outlined to On3 in a phone call Monday about a 16-month period where collective bargaining with athletes would occur.

If a settlement is agreed upon, multiple associations will look to become the de facto players’ association for college football and other sports. But competition will start. More organizations could form on top of the already competitive marketplace. The Dartmouth men’s basketball team opted to join the Service Employees International Union. And professional sports associations will likely make pitches, too.

The one consensus among players’ associations is that the odds are slim there will be multiple organizations representing college football. Similar to professional sports, each sport will probably have its own players’ association because each will come with its own nuances.

Can Power 4 agree on a House settlement?

Sources have indicated to On3 that athletic directors and presidents have been meeting with their respective conference offices to talk over options on the table with the House settlement. Commissioners are involved in these conversations along with the NCAA, but they also need the proxy of institutions.

New Texas A&M athletic director Trev Alberts laid off a dozen athletic department staff members last month. The move was directly tied to freeing up dollars for a future college sports model. Alberts described the layoffs as a “business decision.”

One topic that is surely being talked through in hotel conference rooms is a possible cap on revenue sharing. Multiple industry sources familiar with the discussions told On3 in recent weeks that talks have entailed schools potentially being permitted to share between $15 and $20 million with athletes, confirming figures also reported by ESPN and Yahoo Sports.

How long will this process take?

A popular misnomer is if a settlement is agreed upon between both parties in the House lawsuit, the new age of college sports will immediately arrive. Wrong. Judge Claudia Wilken will need to ratify the settlement agreement.

What the NCAA has long sought after is an antitrust exemption, which would have to come for Congress. For nearly anything discussed in the settlement to be put into action, Congress or collective bargaining would have to be put in place.

And don’t forget about the National Labor Relations Board. A Los Angeles-based NLRB administrative law judge is weighing whether USC football and men’s basketball players are employees of the university, the Pac-12 or the NCAA. Because the Pac-12 and NCAA are charged as being joint employers, a ruling could potentially open the door for some athletes at public universities to be deemed employees as well.