After House settlement, is Division I now one big, 'happy family'?

The most interesting comment NCAA President Charlie Baker made this week centered on what he believes the settlement in the House case will mean for the dysfunctional family of 32 Division I conferences that somehow manage to operate under one proverbial big tent.

“If the proposed settlement is accepted, it will bind the NCAA and all the schools in D-I for the next 10 years,” Baker said at the NACDA Convention in Las Vegas.

Translation: The historic House settlement should quiet growing chatter about a potential Power Four breakaway from the NCAA – at least for the next decade. That is the duration of the agreed-upon settlement terms, which include a $2.8 billion damages bill and a landscape-shifting revenue-sharing model.

Given current industry conditions, if U.S. District Judge Claudia Wilken does in fact certify the settlement in the coming months, Charlie Baker’s vision of keeping hundreds of disparate D-I schools under one umbrella for the next decade would be a notable, if not improbable achievement.

Before House settlement, change was inevitable

The winds of change in recent years – and especially in recent months – have been blowing steadily toward a breakaway. 

The revenue gap separating the two super conferences – the SEC and Big Ten – from everyone else continues to grow at a significant rate, with the two robust leagues well positioned in the future to represent the quasi-AFC and NFC in the future collegiate model.

They have had all the leverage to force changes in their best interests, as we’ve seen with the new College Football Playoff revenue distribution model, and there is little anyone else can do to push back against it.

Those two leagues this year created a so-called joint advisory group, which some took as a precursor to a potential breakaway from the NCAA.

More broadly, the divide between power leagues and other D-I conferences is also widening, with the most powerful leagues increasingly advocating for their own best interests. 

Power conference commissioners, particularly the SEC’s Greg Sankey and Big 12’s Brett Yormark, have been pushing for expansion of the NCAA Tournament, with Sankey not-so-subtly hinting that automatic berths for one-bid mid-major conferences shouldn’t be protected.

In addition, much of the non-power conference world has been hissing mad over the power leagues being stuck with some 40% of the damages bill in the House case over the next 10 years, while non-power conferences are stuck with 60%. 

And in a 2025 revenue-sharing world – in which schools can share as much as $22 million annually with athletes – the biggest brands will further separate from everyone else, putting the most dollars in athletes’ pockets.

Charlie Baker: NCAA ready to move forward

If Charlie Baker proves correct – with all of D-I remaining under the NCAA umbrella the next decade – the overwhelming source of revenue, March Madness, should remain intact throughout the remainder of the current media rights deal with CBS Sports and Warner Bros. Discovery through 2032. 

That’s the NCAA’s golden goose, delivering the association more than $1 billion annually, with the majority of those dollars being distributed to member schools. “We now have the ability to move forward with the assumption that we’re all going to be one big – maybe happy – family moving forward,” Baker said.