With new CFP revenue model, SEC and Big Ten will further separate from pack

It is the Power Two’s world, and everyone else is merely along for the ride, fortunate they are still permitted to play in the same college sports sandbox.

That snapshot of the fast-evolving college sports ecosystem continues to come into sharper focus, with the two super conferences – the SEC and Big Ten – expected Friday to substantially widen the already large financial gap that separates them from all other leagues.

College Football Playoff leaders – the 10 FBS conferences and Notre Dame – are reportedly poised to approve a new revenue distribution model for a potential expanded 14-team tournament beginning in 2026.

The SEC/Big Ten will combine to receive some $300 million more than two leagues once grouped with them in the defunct Power Five fraternity: the ACC and Big 12. Nailing down revenue distribution is the next step before signing a six-year extension with ESPN, which is slated to pay $1.3 billion annually to maintain exclusive rights to the College Football Playoff property.

What it means: Each Big Ten and SEC school will receive more than $21 million per school, ESPN reported, a substantial increase from some $6 million per school. The ACC ($13 million per school) and Big 12 ($12 million) will also see significant increases, just not nearly as much as the two super conferences.

College sports’ truism has long been “the rich get richer.” Now, the SEC and Big Ten get filthy rich.

Stakeholders girding for revenue-sharing model

There is another important factor to keep in mind: Every college sports stakeholder is bracing for a new financial world order, where the ability to maximize revenue will be even more critical than it has been in the age of the facilities arms race and escalating coaches’ salaries.

A revenue-sharing model is almost certainly coming to high-level college athletics, whether it is ushered in through court proceedings or voluntary moves by leagues or the NCAA. Athletes for the first time are expected to receive a share of the enormous broadcast rights pies.

College athletics is also girding for potentially unfavorable outcomes – or a settlement – in several antitrust lawsuits. That includes the House case, which could put the NCAA and power leagues on the hook for $4.2 billion in damages if a settlement is not reached before January’s trial.

Asked recently what schools can do to prepare for a potentially large damages bill, Casey Schwab, CEO and founding partner of Altius Sports Partners, told On3: “There are two levers that every AD has to think about: The first one is cutting expenses, the second one is growing revenue. It’s no different than how any banker, any for-profit leader would think. And I’m not here to suggest that college athletics should turn into a strictly for-profit endeavor. But the problem we’re facing is an economics problem. You have to solve an economics problem with economic solutions.”

Super conferences have ‘enormous’ influence

One economic solution for the super conferences is to use their substantial leverage to position themselves in a totally new financial stratosphere as industry disruption continues to reshape the landscape.

Truth is, there is little the rest of college sports can do to prevent the Power Two from flexing its considerable muscle in an overt power play. Call their bluff or stand in their way? They can split from the NCAA, derail CFP negotiations and move to stage their own postseason tournament.

“The power and influence they now have is enormous,” one high-ranking college sports source told On3 last week. “They have enough power to use it.”

Structure of potential 14-team CFP remains unclear

The two super leagues expand to a combined 34 schools this year, cornering the market on almost all the biggest brands in college football. Compared with other FBS leagues, the Power Two also each flaunt league media rights deals lucrative enough to lap the field.

Now the gap will widen considerably with a new revenue distribution model for the College Football Playoff.

In the past, the Power Five conferences split some $460 million in annual revenue evenly. Power conference received 80% of the revenue allotment, with Group of Five leagues receiving 20%. 

With the new model, the Power Two is expected to earn a combined total of more than $700 million annually, according to Yahoo Sports, with the ACC and Big 12 receiving some $400 million combined. Some $115 million will be allocated for the Group of Five leagues to share.

The format for a potential 14-team CFP beginning in 2026 still needs to be addressed. Each of the next two years, a 12-team tournament will consist of the five highest-ranked conference champions plus the seven highest-ranked at-large teams. 

Several potential formats are in play for a possible 14-team field, including the possibility of the SEC and Big Ten receiving multiple automatic berths. Expect the leagues to differentiate themselves in both access to and revenue from the tournament.

SEC, Big Ten flexing muscles on other fronts

Additionally, the SEC and Big Ten are also exerting their leverage on other consequential fronts in the college sports world.

Power four conferences – which obviously includes the two super conferences – have been overtly pushing for NCAA tournament expansion to increase access for their expanded leagues. In particular, the Big 12’s Brett Yormark, commissioner of the nation’s best men’s basketball league, this week endorsed expanding from 68 to 76 teams.

Sources familiar with ongoing high-level discussions tell On3 that “modest” NCAA Tournament expansion is highly likely.

More broadly, the SEC and Big Ten also recently announced the creation of a so-called “joint advisory group” to help create a palatable new financial model for their schools. The belief among some stakeholders is that the NCAA’s reform proposal, unveiled in December, is not progressive enough to stave off further legal threats against the NCAA and its members.

But first, the outcome of the Power Two’s College Football Playoff power play is expected to come into focus Friday.

It is the latest example of the Power Two throwing their weight around to further separate themselves from all other leagues in the universe – and there’s nothing standing in their way.