Evaluating which domino could fall next in conference realignment

Conference realignment does not sleep. 

In just a week, Colorado has formally joined the Big 12. Pac-12 commissioner George Kliavkoff presented an underwhelming Apple+ TV deal. Arizona and Arizona State appear poised to jump ship. The Big Ten is preparing to become a landing spot for Oregon and Washington. 

And the real kicker – Florida State declared Wednesday it needs to seriously consider leaving the ACC.

“My current assessment of the situation after very deep analysis is that I believe that FSU will have to at some point consider very seriously leaving the ACC unless there were a radical change to the revenue distribution,” FSU president Rick McCullough said in front of his board of trustees. 

For the third consecutive summer, the college football landscape has been put on its head. Not because of NIL, employee rights or revenue sharing. No, this is being driven by TV dollars. The so-called amateur sport is dead. This is big business. 

So what exactly comes next? As the college sports world holds its breath for the next domino to fall, On3 is evaluating what could come next. 

Arizona, Arizona State’s Board of Regents make move

At 9 p.m. ET on Thursday night, the Arizona Board of Regents is scheduled to meet in executive session. The board oversees Arizona, Arizona State and Northern Arizona. But in its agenda, released Wednesday night, the regents are set for a conversation on, “possible legal advice and discussion regarding university athletics.” 

What has become clearer in the last 48 hours is the fate of the Sun Devils and Wildcats will be tied together no matter what move is made. They could opt to stick with the Pac-12, trying to rally together the conference and save face for Kliavkoff. 

Things appear to be trending toward the schools making a dash for the Big 12, though. When Colorado decided to take up Brett Yormark’s invitation to join the Big 12, it set off a cascade of outcomes. All eyes have been on Arizona president Bobby Robbins for the past week. A cardiac surgeon and former hospital administrator, he is an avid sports fan. He cares about winning. He wants to have a hand in the future of college athletics, which is why he held a summit on the topic in June in Washington, D.C.

At this moment, he is the most powerful man in college sports. With one move, he can write the next chapter of conference realignment. Not many would argue with the decision, as the TV payout in the Big 12 would make significantly more sense for an athletic department’s revenue. Hard to see many athletic departments clamoring to place their livelihood on a subscription package that isn’t linear. 

Or he can stay put, urging the Arizona Board of Regents to keep faith in the Pac-12 and its easier path to the College Football Playoff. The decision could be made Thursday night. According to the Action Network’s Brett McMurphy, the Pac-12 primary media rights deal with Apple expires at the end of the week. 

Brett Yormark has decision to make

Brett Yormark is the envy of college sports. The Big 12 commissioner just celebrated his first year on the job. After declaring the conference open for business last summer, he swiftly signed a new TV deal with ESPN and added BYU, UCF, Cincinnati and Houston. 

It was a brilliant move. But another significant decision is coming on the horizon. If Arizona and Arizona State make the leap to the Big 12, it would give the conference an odd number of schools at 15. Where would Yorkmark look next?

Many have quickly pointed out Utah as the answer. The Utes have become a football power in the last decade. Salt Lake City is a growing metro; it was named the seventh fastest-growing city in the U.S. in October 2022. 

Yormark has long flirted with UConn, though. The reigning men’s basketball champs and home of the most historic women’s basketball program in the sport’s history, there is plenty of appeal for the top basketball conference in the nation. Adding another Power 5 school does not help the Big 12’s TV contract, either. The deal with FOX Sports only includes a pro rata clause for two Power 5 institutions, Yormark would have to go back to the negotiation table.

It’s clear the better branding move would be the addition Utah, which is coming around on the thought of not being a “West Coast school.” Will Yormark push for the Huskies, though? 

Big Ten makes move for Oregon, Washington

The Big Ten has set its sights on Oregon and Washington, per Yahoo! Sport’s Dan Wetzel. It adds up for so many reasons. While the draw for USC to move to the Big Ten was being the preeminent school on the Pacific Coast, putting the Ducks and Huskies in the league would establish a western arm of the Big Ten. 

ESPN’s Pete Thamel reported the Big Ten presidents met Thursday morning to authorize commissioner Tony Petitti to explore further conference expansion. The Big Ten has always courted Notre Dame. But a source told On3 the Fighting Irish could soon be closing in on their own TV deal.

The Big Ten does not currently have escalators or a pro-rata built into its contract with its media partners, which the Big 12 does have. The source said the conference would “have to go back to work” with NBC Sports, FOX Sports and CBS. The decision to add Oregon and Washington would be predicated on a Pac-12 implosion or broadcast partners willing to sit back down at the table to work out a pro-rata share.

Washington has scheduled a “special meeting” for tonight at midnight EST on Friday. The meeting will include an executive session.

When Oklahoma and Texas made the move to the Southeastern Conference two summers ago, many dubbed the conference a “super league.” It will be hard to not put that crown on the Big Ten if it adds Oregon and Washington, which would then be sitting at 18 schools.