Expanded CFP format decisions in holding pattern until realignment 'dust settles'

IRVING, Texas — Significant College Football Playoff decisions related to the format of the expanded 12-team event are in a holding pattern until the ACC‘s expansion plans crystalize.

After meeting for some six hours Wednesday, CFP conference commissioners predictably decided to punt on format decisions for the expanded event, which begins in 2024, because it’s uncertain how many Football Bowl Subdivision conferences will even exist next year.

“We’re going to have to wait until the dust settles before making any decisions about how that may affect [the] CFP,” said Bill Hancock, the College Football Playoff’s executive director. “The fact is we don’t know yet — no one knows how conference realignment is going to wind up.”

Greg Sankey, the SEC commissioner, added: “We don’t have full clarity right now. Maybe we never will have full clarity.”

The ACC could formally vote any day on inviting Stanford, California and SMU to join the predominantly East Coast league. If the Bay Area schools leave the ashes of the Pac-12 behind, the 108-year-old conference will almost certainly be extinct.

The College Football Playoff last year approved a 12-team tournament field in which six automatic qualifiers — the six highest-ranked conference champions — would join six at-large teams. MAC Commissioner Jon Steinbrecher said a “bedrock principle” is honoring conference champions.

‘You’d like to have the landscape settled’

If the Pac-12 ceases to exist, or is a shell of itself, one possibility is for just the five highest-ranked conference champions to earn automatic berths in the College Football Playoff, leaving slots for seven at-large teams.

Hancock said the so-called “5+7” format was broached in the meeting but discussion didn’t dive too deep into the weeds given the current realignment uncertainty.

Sankey has floated the idea of tournament bids simply going to the 12 highest-ranked teams, a model that would undoubtedly favor his league and the Big Ten. Starting next year, the SEC will have 16 teams, while the Big Ten will have 18. Hancock declined to characterized what level of support that concept had in the meeting room.

Overall, Hancock characterized the tenor of the meeting, which included the 10 FBS commissioners and Notre Dame Athletic Director Jack Swarbrick, as “cordial.” The frenzied summer has included the Big Ten poaching Oregon and Washington from the Pac-12, and the Big 12 adding Arizona, Colorado, Arizona State and Utah from the Pac-12.

And now the ACC is eyeing Stanford, Cal and SMU. The Mountain West and American conferences are eyeing Oregon State and Washington State. But multiple conference commissioners said the mood was friendly.

“You’d like to have the landscape settled,” Swarbrick said. “And it’s not settled.”

CFP will provide stipend for student-athletes’ families

Oregon State and Washington State hold out hope that they can rebuild the Pac-12, with or without the Bay Area schools, into a viable conference. Washington State President Kirk Schulz told Pac-12 insider John Canzano on Monday that Plan A remains a potential Pac-12 rebuild.

“We still want to figure out what we might be able to do along with OSU and perhaps Cal and Stanford …,” Schulz said, “about keeping the band together and see what the next steps look like.”

Even if they do achieve that long-shot feat by poaching schools from Group of Five leagues, it is doubtful it can retain its Power 5 designation.

That status is important because current Power Five conferences received $80 million last year as part of the College Football Playoff revenue distribution model. How might the revenue structure change if there are only four power conferences remains to be seen. (Group of Five conferences received some $20 million apiece.)

CFP leaders need to decide on a revenue model for the next two years. Its rights contract with ESPN, worth some $470 million annually, expires in 2026. After that, the property could yield some $2 billion in a rights deal that may potentially include multiple partners. The CFP will essentially start from scratch in crafting a revenue model for 2026 and beyond.

Realignment all about ‘Power Five branding’

There’s also a question about how many media partners the College Football Playoff will have for the 2024 and 2025 tournaments. ESPN has the rights for 11 later-round games — the quarterfinals, semifinals and finals — and first dibs on the other four games. But Hancock said conversations are underway — with ESPN’s knowledge — with other potential partners for those four games. He said not all are linear TV networks. No firm deadline exists to find a broadcast partner for those four games.

Overall, so many decisions hinge on the ACC’s big expansion decision.

In recent weeks, the ACC in an informal straw poll was one vote shy of the required 12 votes (12 of 15) necessary to expand. Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina and North Carolina State opposed expanding. 

Embattled Pac-12 Commissioner George Kliavkoff, who has seen his conference crumble in the wake of an underwhelming Apple TV+ rights deal proposal, was in the Wednesday meetings. ACC Commissioner Jim Phillips participated in the meetings via Zoom. Hancock said he had no update on where the ACC’s expansion plans stood.

Regarding possibly losing SMU to the ACC, AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco said, “I’ve talked about how disruptive this whole P-5 thing can be. It is making people potentially go for little money. It’s all about branding. We heard that Stanford and Cal have no place to go. That’s not true. They had a place to go. They weren’t orphans. There’s this desperation now because of this P-5 branding.”

Aresco said no decisions have been made on whether they will try to replace SMU. They are pursuing Oregon State and Washington State, however, which Aresco did not specifically address.

The commissioners did make progress on several operational fronts. Among them: The CFP will provide a stipend for families of student-athletes to travel to all rounds of the playoff. Specifically, 125 players on each team will receive $3,000 each round to cover travel expenses.

Commissioners will meet again late next month in Chicago.