For Pac-12 and Big 12, one league knows when it has a good bird in the hand

Two conferences, two distinct strategies over the past year. Now one is on the cusp of a recruiting coup. The other may be fighting for its very survival.

The Big 12 Conference is expected to lure Colorado back to its more natural home. All the while, the Pac-12 Conference‘s pursuit of a new media rights deal drags on interminably and concerns have reached a fever pitch over exactly who will pay how much for the opportunity to broadcast the distressed Conference of Champions’ inventory after July 1, 2024. And now this: Will another school follow Colorado out the door, and how soon?

The Pac-12’s George Kliavkoff and the Big 12’s Brett Yormark are both new to this oft-times perplexing world of college athletics. They are both stewarding leagues left diminished in the wake of big-brand departures. The Pac-12’s USC and UCLA will head to the Big Ten Conference next summer, as the Big 12’s Texas and Oklahoma head to the SEC. 

But only one commissioner is thriving. The contrast in approaches by Kliavkoff and Yormark has been striking and revealing.

At Big 12 media days, Yormark projected a forward-thinking, innovative and opportunistic fervor. He told On3 that he’d be “a little disappointed” if he wasn’t able to add two teams by 2025. (The way things are going, he may snare two before summer’s out.) His aggressive business savvy distinguishes him in a college sports industry laden with many leaders who react only when forced, who do things one way because they’ve always been done that way, and who are allergic to innovation.

On the other hand, yes, Kliavkoff should be credited with fielding every question at Pac-12 media day. But his media rights update was a non-update – again – more than five months after the league itself said it would secure a deal in the “very near future.” The entire negotiations have been marked by messaging mishaps – Kliavkoff initially saying the league didn’t announce a deal during media day on purpose and then backtracking – and an unusual level of secrecy.

“Never seen a deal so secretive,” one longtime TV source said. “Most deals, including ours, leak before they are done. When you pull back the curtain, who is there? The streamers? What linear partner? If they (Pac-12) imploded, God only knows what happens to college sports.”

How did we get to this point with Big 12, Pac 12?

Rewind the calendar a year. Yormark emerged from media day last summer and, new to the commissioner job, new to college sports, felt he needed to align with TV partners and work to strike a rights deal. Last October, a conference whose survival was once in peril following the Texas and Oklahoma announcements, landed a six-year, $2.2 billion extension with ESPN and FOX Sports. 

“I’m a firm believer that you grab a good bird in the hand when you get it,” Yormark told On3. “And I felt that we had a good bird in the hand. It was a fair deal. It was the right deal. Everyone said we wouldn’t get an increase. We did, and we got more promotion. We got more marketing. So, I felt it was a great deal and one we had to do. Looking back now, I think that deal looks better every day.”

It looks so good now that another veteran TV source told On3 that it’s an open question whether the Big 12 would have landed such a deal now, had it waited a year. That’s how much the rights landscape has changed, with ESPN laying off thousands of employees and signaling that it will be far more selective in rights decisions. 

“Brett outflanked George by going early,” the source said. “He moved quickly. Had the Pac-12 done that, would they have gotten a deal first? I don’t know. Now they’ve had instability that the Big 12 did not have.”

For the Pac-12, by waiting, the media rights headwinds created a more challenging dynamic. And, yes, Kliavkoff is playing with a diminished hand – remaining inventory quality drops off after Oregon and Washington. But the league’s problems have been compounded by the messaging issues.

‘Taunting people you’re trying to do deals with’

Kliavkoff has opted against public updates for the last several months. When he did speak at media day, he said, “The longer we wait for the media deal, the better our options get.” He added that there is an “underlying shift in the media market that is happening and we are long term taking advantage of that but short term it may have provided some hiccups.”

It’s a, well, unique strategy. Leading media rights reporter John Ourand of Sports Business Journal said on his podcast this week that, “You don’t want to talk about ‘Oh, the longer we hold out, the better the deal gets.’ You’re almost taunting the people that you’re trying to do deals with. It’s a bizarre strategy to try to see this over the finish line.”

What’s more, the Pac-12 internally has privately expressed confidence throughout that it would land a deal that would deliver its member schools dollars roughly in the ballpark of what Big 12 schools will receive – $31.6 million annually. But there is no indication that conference university presidents have even seen financial projections. Plus, nobody knows if those figures match those of the Big 12 deal.

Colorado Athletic Director Rick George declined to express fidelity to the conference this week. But he did tell ESPN, “We are where we are. We’ve just got to figure it out.”

Conference leaders are judged by rights deals

Conference commissioners are judged heavily on whether they land lucrative, forward-thinking rights deals that best position the league for an ever-changing future landscape.

We’re less than a year away from the Pac-12’s current deal expiring July 1, 2024. To that point, Bob Thompson, former president of FOX Sports Networks, tweeted: “Like with a top player or coach, you don’t like to start the last year of a media contract without a new one.”

Losing Colorado will certainly destabilize a Pac-12 very much in need of solid footing. It won’t signal its imminent demise. But questions turn to: Will any other Pac-12 team defect for the Big 12? Yormark has made clear that, in terms of league membership, he likes the number 14. By losing Texas and Oklahoma and by adding Colorado, he’d be one shy.

By tapping into innovative concepts such as establishing clinics and exhibitions at fabled Rucker Park, Yormark strives to create a cooler, younger conference, one that especially appeals to the Gen Z demographic. With that in mind, luring back a football program stewarded by a one-man hype video in Deion Sanders has its perks. 

Much like he did with his league’s rights deal, when Yormark spots an opportunity he strikes quickly. One has presented itself right now. When asked if he’d be ready to add a team as soon as the next few weeks, he didn’t hesitate. 

“If the right situation presents itself, and it’s additive and fits within our guiding principles, it’s incumbent on me, given the directive from the Board, to explore it,” Yormark told On3. “And we’re not afraid to make quick decisions – as you can see.” 

Yormark knows when he has a good bird in the hand.