Four-team College Football Playoff era will end with a ratings crescendo

Now that attention nationwide – with the understandable exception of many in Tallahassee – has turned to the on-field matchups for the College Football Playoff, let’s consider the full view of what the last four-team tournament promises to be.

Ratings gold.

So long as Michigan–Alabama in the Rose Bowl and Washington–Texas in the Sugar Bowl figure to be relatively closely contested, these semifinals have everything college football aficionados and casual fans could want.

The first game New Year’s Day will offer as compelling a coaching duel as one could conceive as the game’s two most recognizable coaches – Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh and Alabama’s Nick Saban – square off. The venue is idyllic, the sunset is picturesque and the two teams are surging into the postseason.

Keep in mind, the high watermark for viewership for a CFP semifinal is 28.3 million for Ohio State-Alabama on Jan. 1, 2015.

In this season’s second semifinal in New Orleans, we have two high-octane offenses led by Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. and Texas’ Quinn Ewers, respectively. Only a poor finish in the Red River Rivalry by Texas stands in the way of both teams entering the game unbeaten.

It should be noted, that in the final postseason before industry-shifting realignment takes hold, all schools represented will either play in the SEC or Big Ten next year, further highlighting how much the two super conferences rule the sport. 

‘Brands matter’ when it comes to ratings

For an indication of the immense fandom in play in this CFP, consider this: Playfly introduced the Playfly Fan Score (PFS), which relies on three proprietary factors: fan passion, fan receptivity and fan marketplace. Three of the top 10 schools – Alabama (first); Michigan (fourth); and Texas (seventh) – are in the CFP.

Delivering fans big brands on the heels of the most-watched college football regular season ever across all networks is an ideal recipe for a massive viewing audience.

“Brands matter,” David Levy, the former Turner president, told On3. “You always want to have these big brands from a pure network perspective – I’m not talking about fans, I’m not talking school alumni – I’m talking purely ratings. You want the big names.”

Also relevant is that the semifinals will be played on Jan. 1, a holiday that typically attracts more eyeballs than games played on New Year’s Eve. It will mark the first time since 2020 that the CFP semifinals will not be played on New Year’s Eve.

High watermark for CFP semifinals is 28.3 million

New Year’s Eve traditionally has been a challenging night to garner big ratings for sports because it’s an evening defined largely by celebrations and away-from-the-TV parties.

In the four semifinals in the past two years, viewership has ranged from a low of 16.6 million for Alabama-Cincinnati in 2021 to a high of 22.5 million for Georgia-Ohio State last season. 

The red flag regarding New Year’s Eve games was 15.6 million for Clemson-Oklahoma on Dec. 31, 2015, which was a Thursday. No CFP semifinal has garnered such a modest – relatively speaking – number and it stood out in stark contrast to the viewership numbers for the first installment of the playoff the previous year: 28.2 million for Florida State–Oregon and 28.3 million for Ohio State-Alabama, two games played on New Year’s Day. 

The CFP initially had hoped to make New Year’s Eve semifinals a tradition for millions, much like it has been to watch the ball drop in New York’s Times Square. But in the summer of 2016, the management committee reversed course after ESPN presented the committee with data showing that the New Year’s Eve time slot contributed heavily to the ratings drop. 

As a result, the move was made to stage the semifinals on a holiday or a Saturday, so the doubleheader wouldn’t conflict with the work schedule of millions nationwide.

ESPN, of course, will broadcast this year’s semifinals and championship. For the next two years, ESPN has the rights to the latter-round games in the 12-team playoff – the quarterfinals, semifinals and championship – as well as first dibs on first-round games.

A long-term media rights deal could fetch as much as a reported $2 billion annually and, sources said, is expected to land with multiple broadcast partners. The usual cast of broadcast partners are vying for slices of the package, as well as Warner Bros. Discovery and Big Tech titans like Amazon and Apple. 

That still needs to play out. What’s more certain is that the era of the four-team CFP will end with a ratings crescendo. Selection controversy aside, the semifinals will be must-see TV.

SEC Championship leads way in viewership

As expected, viewership was strong for the five power conference championships over the weekend – with the SEC Championship on CBS eclipsing all others with 17.52 million viewers.

This was the third most-watched conference title game since 1992, according to Sports Media Watch. Of note: Out-of-home viewing was not tracked in the Nielsen final national ratings until 2020, the website reported.

This will be the final time conference championships carry this much weight. They’ll carry weight in a future world of the 12-team tournament, but most of the time teams will be battling for a better seed and/or a bye.

This year had a confluence of factors that made the league championships all the more compelling, including that four conferences each had an unbeaten team entering the weekend. Three emerged still unbeaten, but only two received invites to the CFP.

What about rest of championship weekend?

Oregon-Washington on Friday provided the most-watched Pac-12 championship on record – and in the final year of the 108-year-old league. An average of 9.2 million viewers tuned in for the game, and the audience peaked at 11.1 million from 11:30-11:45 p.m. ET

Some 10 million watched Michigan-Iowa on FOX Sports even though it was the dud most expected, with the offensively challenged Hawkeyes posing no threat to the bruising Wolverines in Harbaugh’s return.

Nearly 8 million watched Texas and Oklahoma State in the noon window on ABC, even though Texas ran the Cowboys off the field.

Florida State-Louisville was hardly easy on the eyes, as effective offense fast proved a chore for both teams. But it was a compelling watch, perhaps, as fans tried to assess whether a Seminoles team playing a third-string quarterback passed the eye test as one of the nation’s best four teams.

The CFP offered their answer Sunday morning. ESPN host Rece Davis and crew handled a challenging decision by the committee – and a potentially emotionally charged debate – with aplomb.

Analysts made relevant, important arguments on both sides of the Alabama-Florida State debate. 
There was no easy answer, and it could have ultimately boiled down to taking the best teams versus the most deserving teams.

The one point that could have warranted more discussion was that if FSU is a lesser version of itself in the wake of the Jordan Travis injury – thus prompting Alabama to leap FSU – then why wasn’t Georgia also ahead of FSU? Georgia fell from first to sixth on the heels of a three-point loss to Alabama on a neutral field.