Group of Five playoff concept highlights industry's 'Game of Thrones' reality

The most noteworthy takeaway from the Group of Five playoff concept hatched by former Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley isn’t the early-stage vision, which is understandably fraught with hurdles.

Rather, it’s what the idea says about where the chaotic college sports industry is now and where it’s headed.

The prospect of a Group of Five playoff – first reported by CBS Sports’ Dennis Dodd – backed by the financial muscle of private equity is all about beginning to shape a lucrative, viable and sustainable second tier of the future professionalized college sports ecosystem, prominent sources described to On3.

In both football revenue and on-field competitive heft, the SEC and Big Ten continue to lap the field, bolstering the widely held belief that the super conferences will look and act more like the AFC and NFC of college football’s new world.

Could Group of Five playoff idea expand?

Sources stress that the G5-only tournament idea – pitting winners of eight divisions in a tournament that awards a College Football Playoff automatic berth – entails only Group of Five schools right now. 

As conference realignment continues to take hold – and super conferences look to congeal – the industry’s so-called second tier could ultimately also include some Big 12 and ACC schools left on the outside of the two super leagues once the music stops.

“The second tier is so fragmented,” a prominent industry source told On3 on Thursday. “Everyone is vying for the adult table. That second tier/G5 is truly ‘Game of Thrones.’

If efforts to join the two super conferences fail, a second-tier end game would be the fallback option for Big 12 schools like Texas Tech, Iowa State and Oklahoma State and ACC schools lacking big brand recognition. 

They could be second-tier members to complement the Group of Five schools already at that table. That scenario would make Dooley’s concept more appealing to a variety of stakeholders.

Multiple industry leaders, in conversations with On3, cited concerns regarding schools’ laborious governance processes and the outsized egos of their decision-makers, all of which could impede much-needed progress for the broader enterprise.

Group of Five playoff idea could create cash flow

But even if the concept entails only the current Group of Five leagues, sources said, it still offers sustainable, reliable cash flows as one considers the future of TV – with live sports being the lifeblood of the current linear TV model.

That’s attractive to the private equity world, stakeholders said, albeit likely not as alluring as financial deals with individual schools.

A prominent source familiar with the private equity space told On3: “They [PE firms] don’t care whether this is a good football team or not. What they care about is – will there be economic viability? I think there will be for this second-tier league.”

Make no mistake, sources said, private equity is coming to college sports and specific schools. PE firms are circling.

“Private equity has been heavily investing in sports for an extended period of time already,” new American Athletic Conference Commissioner Tim Pernetti said during his introductory news conference. “It’s like circling the neighborhood in college sports, but it hasn’t parked its car in anyone’s driveway yet.  “I think that’s inevitable.”