Mid-majors fear a box-out as March Madness changes loom

What has been an under-the-radar issue is poised to soon become what grizzled newspaper veterans would call an above-the-fold storyline: The future of the NCAA tournament.

Three months ago, Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s senior vice president of basketball, opened the door to tournament expansion – albeit stopping short of calling it inevitable – by saying stakeholders need to keep the event “forward-looking” and “contemporary.”

And in recent weeks – Yahoo Sports! reported Tuesday – discussions along those lines have accelerated, with Power Five conference stakeholders relaying to NCAA President Charlie Baker their desire to expand the 68-team tournament.

There are more than 350 Division I men’s basketball programs, but there’s been no significant expansion since the event moved to 64 teams in 1985. Adding a few more “first-round” games on TruTV wouldn’t spell the end of the world.

But given a slew of other changes afoot in college athletics – from revenue sharing to conference realignment and beyond – every move to alter the NCAA tournament has to be viewed through this prism: Are these all merely incremental moves toward the end game of slamming the door shut on mid-major programs?

Top leagues hold leverage with NCAA tournament

The power leagues – particularly the SEC and Big Ten – hold enormous leverage. It’s in the NCAA’s interests to placate them because the association relies on March Madness for the overwhelming majority of its $1 billion-plus annual revenue.

Rankle the P4 enough and they can take their basketball, break away from the NCAA and stage their own lucrative postseason championship tournament. FOX Sports has already demonstrated its desire to create an all-power conference team postseason event – squeezing out the little guy – that would pose an existential threat to the National Invitation Tournament.

In response, the NCAA moved to guarantee 12 NIT spots to teams from power conferences, thus squeezing out the little guy. That decision irked many mid-major stakeholders, including Gloria Nevarez, commissioner of the basketball-rich Mountain West Conference, who told On3 that the additional automatic qualifiers “based solely on brand is unconscionable.”

Top leagues want more teams in tournament

The P4 want more access to the NCAA tournament – and they’ll likely get it. One source involved in the NCAA tournament expansion talks told On3 on Tuesday they harbor no issues with some level of expansion and that protecting berths for mid-majors is paramount.

“A modest adjustment better incorporating the ‘First Four’ into the NCAA tournament is needed,” another source familiar with discussions told On3.

As more power shifts to the richest conferences, and the SEC-Big Ten “joint advisory group” pushes for a variety of changes to the industry’s financial model, anxiety increasingly simmers at the mid-major level over whether they will ultimately be boxed out of March Madness.

The prospect of the mid-major upset – especially during the tournament’s first two days – is an essential ingredient in the NCAA tournament’s secret sauce.

But how long can and will the big and little guys continue to play together under one March Madness umbrella, as the big guys seek more and more access and revenue?