Recruitments intensify for Stanford, Cal, SMU, Oregon State, Washington State

With the college football season just days away from starting in earnest, two recruitments are simultaneously intensifying as this consequential round of conference realignment is approaching a decisive moment.

Stanford, California and SMU continue to try to sell themselves to the ACC. All are willing to take varying degrees of partial – or no – initial revenue shares as they seek all-important invites into a Power Four conference.

Meantime, the American Athletic Conference and Mountain West Conference are vying to add the two other remaining Pac-12 schools: Oregon State and Washington State. AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco is “scheduled to visit both campuses” as well as meet with their leadership groups via remote video calls, an AAC source with direct knowledge of the league’s strategy told On3 on Monday.

MWC Commissioner Gloria Nevarez is meeting with Oregon State and Washington State as she and the league’s leadership assess a myriad of options. They include everything from traditional expansion to a potential merger with the Pac-12 that could give the MWC valuable branding from the disintegrating 108-year-old league. Pac-12 insider John Canzano reported Nevarez is meeting with Oregon State on Monday.

“Everything is on the table,” Nevarez recently told On3. She added that it would feel like a “missed opportunity” if the MWC did not add at least one Pac-4 school during this realignment cycle.

ACC still has large role in what happens next

Here is one snapshot of what inclusion in the MWC and AAC entails:

The MWC delivers its schools some $6 million in annual revenue and has a media rights deal with CBS Sports and FOX Sports that expires after the 2025-26 academic year. The AAC delivers its schools a little more than $8 million in annual rights revenue and has a rights deal with ESPN that expires after the 2031-32 academic year.

How everything plays out largely hinges on the ACC’s pending decision regarding the Bay Area schools and SMU. In recent weeks, an internal league straw poll indicated that 11 of the 15 schools were in favor of expansion. The four opposed were Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina and North Carolina State.

“It feels different now,” one longtime ACC administrator said. “It feels like this will happen.”

But two questions remain: How will it happen and why? The ACC needs to flip one “no” vote. North Carolina and N.C. State are believed to be tethered at the hip with their vote. Clemson and, most publicly, FSU have been frustrated that the league is falling further behind super conferences like the SEC and Big Ten in annual revenue distribution. Which school will flip votes?

ACC leaders are discussing a revenue-sharing model in which newcomers would surrender some or all of their initial revenue share for inclusion in the league. Stanford and Cal may initially start with roughly 30% of a full share, Yahoo! Sports reported, while SMU is willing to forgo all annual rights revenue for up to seven years.

That would yield a financial boon of roughly $72 million in annual additional revenue for the ACC; existing members would benefit financially, likely in the form of some performance-based incentives. Yet, there is no guarantee it would placate disgruntled folks in Tallahassee.

Stanford, Cal, SMU waiting for clarity

As for Stanford, Cal and SMU, they are willing to play the long game.

“They’d crawl over glass to get into a Power 5 league,” one industry source told On3.

While momentum may be moving in the direction of the ACC adding a Bay Area outpost, the league still needs to flip a vote. Clarity is expected before the start of Week 1 of the football season. 

Clarity for Oregon State and Washington may take longer to emerge. Both still eye a long-shot possibility of trying to rebuild the Pac-12 if Stanford and Cal don’t bolt to the ACC. And assessing the pros and cons of joining the MWC or AAC may take some time as well.